Gagne won't be paid $10 mil again if he accepted arbitration, not after his '08 campaign. As logan alluded to, the question would be how much an arbiter thinks he is worth after a mediocre (not just by Gagne's standards, by league standards) season. Say, they go to arbitration and Gagne comes up with an $8 mil number and the Brewers come up with a $5 mil number. I tend to think that the arbiter would side with the Brewers, but they may not. I believe Gagne is worth a 1 year/$5 mil deal. I don't think he's worth a 1 year/$8 mil deal. Would the Brewers be willing to risk going to arbitration and losing, even though he wouldn't sniff $10 mil again anyway? I dunno. As for better results, I don't think he's great shakes but I think he's better than his results in '08. Maybe a 1.25 WHIP and a ~4.25 ERA seems plausible. The question the Brewers have to answer for themselves is, if they think he'll pitch a little better and cost somewhat less, will those two sliding factors slide enough to meet in the middle so that arbitration will be worth it? And would they have a strong arbitration case for ~$5 mil? And would Gagne even accept arbitration being a Boras client? I think it is a closer call than most and while I think the Brewers won't risk it, I think maybe they should.