Matt Breen

I honestly can't say I saw Lucroy more than once or twice last year. Maybe others have. Perhaps there was a reason for his sudden falloff. It's not impossible for a guy like him to crash and burn in one year, but to go from a 4+WAR to a 1WAR guy in a year is pretty drastic. I guess the team would really have to look at him - do a deep dive and understand what went wrong last year - and see if it's an anomaly or just a guy getting old. If he rebounds, you potentially have a near all-star level player for $11M - which is a nice bargain.

Paul Molitor and Torey Lovullo were named AL Manager of the Year and NL Manager of the Year, respectively. Brewer manager Craig Counsell finished fourth in the voting, behind Lovullo, Dave Roberts and Bud Black. NL Voting: https://bbwaa.com/17-nl-mgr/ AL Voting: https://bbwaa.com/17-al-mgr/

The author is betting that Lucroy takes a one year deal to try and rebuild his value - and then re-enter the market next off season in a better position. He could certainly get a multi-year deal - but just not at the price he thought he would be getting a year ago.

Nice article on Monte Harrison Healthy Monte Harrison Thriving In The Arizona Fall League http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/healthy-harrison-thriving-in-the-arizona-fall-league/#2VCgxHzkEAoE5zGP.97

Dave Cameron at Fangraphs did his Top 50 free agents. While he doesn't have predictions on where they will sign, he did put dollar figures next to each player - plus the dollars predicted by their crowdsource. It gives a little different take on what kinds of dollars these guys might expect. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/ Some players associated with the Crew or talked a lot about by some of our posters: Neil Walker - 3 years/$33M Arietta - 4/$96M Chatwood - 3/$10M Lance Lynn - 3/$48M Sabathia - 2/$30M Cobb - 4/$60M Hosmer - 6/$126M Lucroy - 1/$12M (thinks he'll try and build back up his stock) Swarzak - 3/$15M Neshak - 2/$14M Cashner - 2/$20M

Just saw that Beltran announced his retirement. Nice way to go out - winning a World Series - even if he struggled this past year. Pretty amazing career numbers: 2725 hits, .279 BA, 435 HR, 312 SB, 69.8 bWAR. Rookie of the year award, WS ring, three gold gloves. Career stats: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrca01.shtml

I would steer clear of Hammel. I can understand why someone would suggest the guy. He was pretty solid from 2014-16 - 3.50-3.90 ERA. And his FIP last year wasn't terrible (4.37 compared to his 5.29 ERA). But you could see he was losing effectiveness even in 2016. His ERA spiked in the 2nd half of the year - and he just wasn't that good. That the Cubs were willing to buy out his option year for $2M (instead of taking the $10M option) was kind of telling about how they felt about the guy. Now he's 35 years old. His performance has faltered for two years running -- it just doesn't seem like it's going to turn out well for the guy. Plus, he gives up a lot of HRs - Miller Park might not be kind to him.

In an article on ESPN, Jerry Crasnick polled 40 general managers, assistant GMs, baseball operations people, and scouts regarding a variety of off season hot stove topics. With regards to the final destination of Jake Arrieta - not a single person picked the Brewers. Most people think he'll end up in Texas. He's from Texas and went to college there. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21385913/hot-stove-survey-stanton-st-louis-otani-bronx-insiders-weigh-winter

I think you've answered the question for yourself. You've given a bunch of reasons NOT to take the new job. You seem to have a good situation - and the new one isn't your dream gig. Embrace what you have - at least for now. Ultimately, I would say, what do you want to do in the future? Don't go down a path on a job just because it is there. Find what you want to do - and plot out that path. Maybe it doesn't work out. Maybe you make some mistakes. Maybe it's a fool's errand. So be it - at least you tried to do what you wanted. The last thing I will say is if the new job truly is better for you - don't be afraid. I know this contradicts much of what I just said. But too many times in life we find reasons NOT to do something. There are so many adventures ahead - we just have to embrace them. But don't take the gig just for a few more dollars - unless that really means a ton to you. You said you don't really see yourself in either place long term - so I'd say stick with where you are at - and instead plot out the future you really want. My 2 cents.

I just don't think Cobb is going to be bought on a discount. Decent stats, pretty young - I bet someone has a 4-year, $50+ million offer for the guy ready to go. Immensely fascinating situation for Cobb. He has some red flags - but a ton of potential. I'm guessing someone overpays for it.

I admire your wide-ranging and well-considered plan. Many things I don't agree with - but that's okay. You got the ball rolling.

Harrison is one of those immensely talented athletes. The guy who does everything really, really well. I mean - scholarship to Nebraska as a wide receiver - that's talent. It's why he's so intriguing. Where will his talent evolve? I mean - it could bust - but on the other hand - you watch the guy and see a young Yoenis Céspedes. Hard not to get excited about the guy. But we have to constantly remind ourselves that Harrison is a work in progress. He never concentrated on baseball as a teen. Add in the injuries he had early in his career - and there's so much unknown. But that's a good thing. Excited to watch him going forward.

The signing of Anderson was a little lower than MLB Trade Rumors had predicted. Add in Torres' release, plus Sogard's signing, and our cap situation has actually improved over the initial list I made a month ago.

With Torres let go, and Anderson and Sogard signed, for 2018, here's a look at our salary structure for next year. [pre]C Manny Pina 0.55 C Stephen Vogt * 3.9 1B Jesus Aguilar 0.55 1B Eric Thames 5.0 2B Jonathan Villa* 3.0 SS Orlando Arcia 0.55 3B Travis Shaw 0.55 LF Ryan Braun 19.0 ($4M deferred) RF Domingo Santa 0.55 CF Keon Broxton 0.55 OF Lewis Brinson 0.55 OF Brett Phillips 0.55 INF Hernan Perez* 2.2 SP Chase Anderso 4.75 SP Jimmy Nelson* 4.7 SP Zach Davies 0.55 SP Brandon Woodr 0.55 S/R Brent Suter 0.55 S/R Josh Hader 0.55 RP Jeremy Jeffres* 2.6 RP Jared Hughes* 2.2 RP Corey Knebel* 4.1 RP Jacob Barnes 0.55 RP Oliver Drake 0.55 RP Eric Sogard 2.4 SP Junior Guerra 0.55[/pre] TOTAL: $62.10M

Why? I know Pina had a better first half hitting the ball last year, but I think he can put up close to the .750 ops again. Lucroy had a good obp, but no slugging last year I think Pina is equal if not better defensively. Plus obviously cheaper than Lucroy. Removing all the past history of Luc and Milwaukee, Lucroy just doesn't fit with the Brewers. He's a guy that wants to catch 120-130+ games - so he's going to go to a place that he will play. One of the reasons he rejected the trade to Cleveland was the fact they weren't necessarily going to use him full time behind the plate. For Milwaukee, Pina is an immensely cheap - and productive - player. I think he wore down a bit as the season progressed - especially when he began taking on a larger role catching. I think he's best splitting duties behind the plate. Honestly, a Pina/Martin Maldonado platoon would have been pretty great - but such is life. In the end, someone will promise Luc a full time gig - and with some decent coin (MLB Trade Rumors puts him at getting $12M a year for two years, which I think might be underestimating him a bit - but not a ton.) His time in Colorado seemed to go well - and the Rockies seemed to like him a lot - so I'm betting that's where he ends up.

I'm guessing the Brewers rotation for 2018 will be: Davies Anderson Woodruff Hader Free agent signing or trade Deep down, I'm not sure Hader goes in the rotation, but he's got a lot of talent, so I'm putting him there now. You don't give up on an arm like his too quickly. But in the end, the club might keep him in the bullpen because they don't buy Hader as a starter. As for the free agent starter -- we will see. I wouldn't be surprised if the team made a run at a top tier guy - like Arietta or Darvish, but they won't go nuts like the Diamondbacks did with Greinke. I think they will end up with a guy on a one or two year deal - an innings eater to fill the back of the rotation. It might be an older guy - such as Lackey, Dickey, Jason Vargas, or Sabathia. They'll hope for a guy

Which is kind of nuts. The guy is a fantastic right fielder. He's supposedly solid in center - but if he was that good, he'd be playing there more often. He's only played 69 games in CF for his career.

Hand would be great to have, but as others have noted, the cost will be high in prospects, and we can fill the slot via free agency. It's one of the nice things about having financial flexibility - you can simply use money to fill a need.

The issue with Harrison is that he's at least a year or two away. Also, he's often struggled when he moved up the ladder in the minors (with the exception of this past year). I like the guy a lot, but I won't be surprised if there are some growing pains.

I don't buy this rumor at all. Ditto. Samardzija is a good pitcher - even with the high ERA last season. The Giants have need of starting pitching. It just makes no sense for them to unload Samardzija for a guy with an onerous contract at a position they don't really need - and then open a huge hole in their rotation.

I think Harrison is getting some love from his strong finish and his performance in the Arizona Fall League, where he's hitting .314 with 4 HRs (just one behind the league leader) on only 35 ABs. He has had a really nice 2017 - just keeps getting better and better.

If the club feels that Hader can be a starter, then I would give him a try there. A premium starting pitcher is worth more than a reliever - and Milwaukee is the kind of team that needs to maximize its players values. That said, I don't know what the club thinks about Hader's ability to be a front line starter. Or Hader's thoughts on the matter as well. Hader may very well hate starting. Or he might just not have that third pitch necessary to succeed in the role. Those are internal things the club has to deal with - things most of us don't really know about. Obviously, this club needs starting pitching in 2018 - so if Josh is hyped to show he can be a starter, I'd do in a heartbeat. But you just don't know what the club - or Hader - is thinking.

Ozuna is a great player. But a guy like Brinson could be great as well. Yes, that's 'could be' - which carries a risk. A huge risk. But I'm okay with taking risks on guys like Brinson. In fact, that's the kind of risks Milwaukee has to take. Guys with all-star potential don't come along in our system very often. Those are the guys we build around - not trade away. At least at this stage. It doesn't mean we don't consider trading top tier prospects for established players - it just has to be the right trade at the right time.

I will relay a story about Diaz. I had a baseball writer tell me about the 2016 Midwest All-Star game. As you would expect, there were lots of scouts and baseball people there. He told me about the time that Diaz was at batting practice (or skills tests or something like that). He said that normally people are sitting around on their phones and laptops and tablets doing stuff, but when Diaz got up to bat and hit the first ball - everyone stopped what they were doing and paid attention to him. Just by hearing the ball getting smacked, people understood that something interesting was going on. The writer said Diaz just stung the ball in his session - and everyone took note. Now, no one is saying Diaz is going to automatically be a great major leaguer. He's still got to hit the ball. And become a competent infielder. But the bat - despite last year's struggles - has some zing to it (at least it did in the past). I think 2018 will be a big year for Isan. He had two very good seasons, and now knows he can't just coast on his natural skills. He's got to step up. Hopefully that will happen.

I'm not sure it would be a telling number - but I really don't know. Here's Diplan's numbers: Most recent poll: 5.3 average (192 points divided by 36 ballots) 2017 mid-season poll: 3.1 average (285 points divided by 61 ballots) This shows he got a higher average rating from the last poll. Just for fun, here are Brinson's numbers: Latest poll - 24.1 average (869 divided by 36 ballots) 2017 mid-season poll - 24.2 average (1477 points divided by 61 ballots) I'm not sure what these kinds of numbers show. My guess is that the more voters we get, the more players we are going to get on the ballots (mid-season was 61 players, this time it was 51). And maybe this kind of things is reflective of the time of year - perhaps by the end of a season we've found more reason to cut loose a few fringe players from our ballots. Also, we should note that the lower number of ballots will lend itself to some odder numbers. If one person ranks Diplan as our #10 prospect - that gets him 16 points - quite a lot for a lower level player. If it happens, it skews that person's numbers higher when you have fewer voters. I also want to point out that not dropping a spot in our poll - especially these lower level guys - may be a sign that the player is dropping in the eyes of our voters. That's because players graduate off the list (or are traded). This time, Hader graduated. That gives everyone a chance to be bumped up a spot in the list. However, when a guy stays even - he's let someone else jump over him in the rankings. Sometimes, that's a result of guys we have traded for - or the draft - but in this case, it was just others moving over Diplan. In the end, this is very unscientific. It's a small sample size. Ideally, I'd throw out the lowest and highest votes of every player to address fetishes - or an irrational dislike - that someone might have about a player. Ultimately, it's fun to see.