Matt Breen

Arizona sends prospects Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King to Detroit. None of the prospects ranked in the Astros Top 30 on MLB Pipeline prior to 2017. Detroit is off the hook for the remainder of Martinez's salary. Hot Stove is heating up. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/tigers-trade-jd-martinez-diamondbacks.html

We would like to invite everyone to take part in the 2017 Mid-Season BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects voting. Please take time and submit on this thread your top 25 Brewer prospects. Feel free to list any resources or news that you feel might help people with their voting. Voting will begin on Tuesday, August 1 and conclude on Tuesday, August 8, which will give everyone about a week to vote. You can change your votes at anytime through the 8th, so I recommend getting your picks in early. You can always go back and tweak your list. This should give everyone plenty of time to consider any new players we may acquire - as well as bump up guys in case any prospects are traded. RULES 1. Submit your Top 25 prospects, in order, by end of day on Tuesday, August 8. Put the player's full name to avoid any confusion (such as Devin Williams and Taylor Williams). 2. You MUST submit 25 prospects. If there are only 10 or 15 or whatever, your list will not be included. 3. You are encouraged to go beyond pick #25 - adding a few more is totally fine. That way if someone in your top 25 is traded or released, or if you mistakenly miss a number, or list a guy twice, or whatever, I can just bump up your next player(s) into the Top 25. 4. Rankings are determined by total points. The top prospect gets 25 points, second prospect gets 24 points, etc. 4. As noted above, if you submit your list and want to change something, just add the change to the thread. I'll accept changes up to the deadline. 5. Within a week after the deadline, we'll publish the new BF.net Community Top 25. Eligibility guidelines: Rookie eligibility is determined by 50 IP or 130+ ABs at the major league level. - Ineligible players: Tyler Cravy, Brent Suter, Jacob Barnes, Oliver Drake, Manny Pina, Jesus Aguilar - Eligible players with ML experience: Josh Hader, Paolo Espino, Tyler Webb, Wei-Chung Wang, David Goforth, Jorge Lopez, Michael Reed, Yadiel Rivera, Yhonathan Barrios, Adrian Houser, Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, Sean Nolan Player notes: - Josh Hader has technically graduated from MLB's rookie eligibility list due to more than 45 days on the roster. But we just look at innings pitched - and he has less than 20 this year - so he's eligible for our list. - Devin Williams will miss all of 2017 after Tommy John surgery - P Damien Magnifico was traded - 1B Garrett Cooper has been traded - Ryan Cordell has been traded New players to consider: - 1st round pick 2B Keston Hiura - Competitive balance round A pick OF Tristen Lutz - 2nd round pick RHP Caden Lemons - 3rd round pick C/1B KJ Harrison - LHP Tyler Webb (acquired for Garrett Cooper) - International signees, including OF Larry Ernesto, OF Carlos Rodriguez, OF/1B Ernesto Martinez Jr. Full list of 2017 draft picks: viewtopic.php?f=69&t=35360 Prospect Rankings: Please note that many prospect rankings have not been updated since the beginning of the year. Baseball America Mid-season Top 100 (does not include recent draft picks): http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/ Baseball America Mid-Season Top 10 Brewers: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-milwaukee-brewers-midseason-top-10-prospects/#AdXotB7kbPvDRGKz.97 Baseball Prospectus Mid-Season Top 50: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=32224 MLB Pipeline Mid-Season Top 30 Brewers (updates as players graduate off lists): http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=mil MLB Pipeline Mid-Season Top 100 players (updates as players graduate off lists): http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects Baseball Prospectus Top 101: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31160 Baseball Prospectus Top 10 Brewers: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30902 Miller Park Prospects Top 40 Brewers: http://www.millerparkprospects.net/prospect-rankings/ Minor League Ball Top 200: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/3/27/15073602/top-200-mlb-prospects-for-2017-revised Minor League Ball Top 30 Brewers: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/1/17/14297686/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-prospects-for-2017 Fangraphs Top 100: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-top-100-prospects/ Fangraphs Top 25 Brewers: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-25-prospects-milwaukee-brewers/ Previous Polls: BF.net 2017 Pre-Season Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=35089 BF.net 2016 Post-Season Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=34747 BF.net 2016 Mid-Season Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=34472 BF.net 2016 Pre-Season Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=33867 BF.net 2015 Post-Season Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=33436 BF.net 2015 Mid-Season Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=33032 BF.net 2015 Pre-Season Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=32447 BF.net August 2014 Top 25 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=31859 BF.net May 2014 Top 20 - viewtopic.php?f=64&t=31355 Please note that we reserve the right to throw out ballots if we feel that the voting was done without following the rules or spirit of the exercise. Thanks for participating!

I'm very excited to announce that Brent Suter has topped the 50 inning mark, and therefore is ineligible for our Top 25 poll. Enjoy!

Fulmer is FAR more difficult to get than Verlander. Verlander is 34, performing very average, and owed $70M. Aging, overpaid and mediocre. Not a ton of value there. Fulmer: young, cheap, controllable and very good. That means it's going to take a lot. Far more than Verlander.

Fulmer would be amazing if you could get him. Only 24 years old. Team would have 5+ years of control of an outstanding pitcher. He had 4.9 WAR last year, and is at 3.3 this year. Even if you place him as a 4.0 WAR guy, that's 20+ WAR left on his contract - all for probably no more than $30M. 20 WAR is $160M in value - that's a valuable asset. Fangraphs just placed him as the 22nd most valuable asset in the majors: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-11-to-20/ As people have said, however, the cost would start with Brinson and Hader - but it won't stop there. Add in at one of Ortiz, Woodruff or Burnes. Then some other players as well. I doubt Detroit makes a trade - but the Crew should do their due diligence. My biggest concern is that Fulmer isn't that sexy of a pitcher. He doesn't strike out a gazillion guys. He's probably not a #1 guy - but more like a #2 type.

If the team is in the playoff race in September, then expect a ton of call ups. Extra catcher, pinch hitters, defensive specialists, lots of bullpen arms. One thing nice thing about the expanded rosters is that we can rest players when games are out of hand. A lot of players get tired come September, and giving them a few innings off here and there can help. And arms like Barnes and Knebel have thrown a lot of innings. In blow out games, it's the perfect time to have players like Jungmann around to eat up some innings instead of bringing in Hughes or another guy who's thrown a lot of innings.

I’m not necessarily hyped up about trading for Gray, but I’m going to have a little fun and just see what might work. First, let’s look at Gray WAR: bWAR values 2014: 3.2 2015: 5.8 2016: -0.5 2017: 1.6 (thus far) fWAR values 2014: 3.1 2015: 3.7 2016: 0.7 2017: 1.7 (thus far) Looking at these number, I’m going to make a leap and give Gray a value of 3.0 WAR for 2017 - and for kicks and grins, let’s give him that value for 2018 and 2019 (the years he is under contract). That would give him a value of roughly 7.5 WAR over the next 2.5 years. One WAR is worth $8M. That means Gray’s WAR over the course of his contract is roughly $60M. Gray makes about $3.6 this year - so let’s just say that he is owed about $1.5M for 2017. If he continues to produce at a 3.0 WAR, you can probably guess his arby raises in 2018 and 2019 will be about $7M and $11M - give or take a million or two. That is roughly $18M total. Add in the remaining salary for 2017 - and Gray is predicted to make about $20M. We’ve already determined that Gray is worth $60M over the next 2.5 years. He’s only getting paid about $20M - so he has a surplus value of about $40M. That means Milwaukee has to come up with about $40M in value for Oakland to make the trade equal (probably more since it's a sellers market - but we'll get to that later). So, how do you value minor league prospects? I’ll use this handy chart done by Fangraphs this past March: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/ It should be noted that hitters have higher value as prospects since they don’t flame as much. Now, we’ve had 3+ months of baseball and the rankings of the players is going to change. But we can still use the slots. Example: we are pretty sure that right now Corey Ray would not come in at #20 on the list as he did in March. But that doesn’t mean he couldn't be worth around the #90 slot or so. So, I have made guesses - and things fall apart if I'm way off. But this is just for fun. So, how do we get $40+M in prospects to Oakland? I know BA and Keith Law have updated their mid-season lists, but most places have not. So we have to take some stabs at things, looking at the rankings from this spring, as well as new rankings, and the performance of the players. Here's my guesses: Brewer Players: Luis Ortiz: $14M value (guessing he’ll come in in the 75-100 range of prospects) Josh Hader: $22M value (guessing he falls in the #25-75 range of prospects) Brinson: $50M value (guessing he is a 15-30 range of prospects). This means he could fall into two buckets on the value list - but I sort of picked a middle spot. Ray: $20M value (this was a tough one, as he was very high earlier this year, but has fallen hard. Some analysts might not even see him as a top 100 guy, while others might have him a lot higher. I’ll give him a ranking in the back part of the Top 100). Woodruff, Diaz, Erceg, Clark - a lot of these guys have faded, and I doubt there’s a consensus that they would make all the Top 100 lists. These kinds of players still have value - but more like $5-10M - instead of $20M. Corbin Burnes, on the other hand, made Keith Law’s Top 50. But that’s a huge leap - and I don’t know if anyone sees him as that good. For that reason, I’m going to not use him. He’s just really tough to assign a value. So, how do you get to $40M to acquire Brinson? Also, would $40M be enough? I’m guessing we have to pay a premium to make a move at this time. So we’ll try and build in for that. Option #1: Brinson. His $50M value is enough to cover the $40M Gray is worth - and a nice 25% bonus. Option #2: Hader and Ray + a kicker: The first two guys are $42M of value. That’s covers the basic price of Gray. We’d probably need to throw in another 100-200 player to add $5-10M in value to the deal. I’m guessing a guy like Diplan or Cordell. Option #3: Ray and Ortiz and two kickers: Ray and Ortiz are worth $34M. We’d have to give two extra players - like Diplan and Cordell to bump up the value. With these on the table, I would lean toward Option #3. Why? Milwaukee has two solid right handed starters in Woodruff and Burnes. That makes Ortiz a bit more easy to part with. Ortiz is attractive as he isn't too far from the majors. Who doesn't like a starting pitcher? As for Ray, the A’s are immensely thin in the outfield in the minors, so Ray can really help. I’d add in Cordell - a guy who might not be a star, but could easily become a starter right now for them. We'd also need to send another player. Maybe someone in the 15-30 range. So, Gray for Ray, Ortiz, Cordell and a little something extra. Again, I'm overpaying for Gray, because I'm guessing that's what we'd have to do to close the deal. The issue is that Ray and Ortiz are not having great seasons. If Ray was hitting .270ish like he was a while ago (before going into a 3-39 slump in July), he'd be way more attractive. But neither guy is tearing things up - and we'd be selling low (especially on Ray). Oakland might just not see them as that great. Anyhow, this was just an exercise for fun. Another way to determine surplus trade value for prospects is found here: http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/ It's like the Fangraphs chart - but a little more segmented, and people might find it of interest. Man, this was a long post. Sorry, but I was figuring out what might be a fair deal using WAR and surplus value - and I figured I'd share it.

This is quite true. I mean, the guy was always pretty big, but he generally hit well and his defense was pretty good. But it was like he flipped a switch and went from fine to horrible overnight. He was only 28 when he signed with Boston - not exactly ancient. My guess is that it was a combination of things: - Put on some weight - this just hit a tipping point. He got a little slower and a little less quick. - Just aged quickly. It's not crazy to see bigger bodied guys start to age around 30. Add in the extra weight, and maybe he just fell apart quickly. - Injuries built up - Sandoval had had his share of injuries with SF. Perhaps they just caught up to him. - Moved to a new organization. Perhaps he put pressure on himself - pressed, etc. - Lost an edge - He got a $95M commitment. Maybe he just lost an edge and stopped pushing himself. It happens. He got set for life and sat back. I don't know what it was, but when we look for answers like this it's often more than one thing. Often times it's a just a little bit of everything. I'd bet that was what happened with Panda.

Phillies Lineup RF Aaron Altherr ® SS Freddy Galvis (S) 3B Maikel Franco ® 1B Tommy Joseph ® LF Nick Williams (L) C Andrew Knapp (S) CF Odubel Herrera (L) 2B Andres Blanco (S) P Nick Pivetta ® Brewers Lineup 2B Jonathan Villar (S) 1B Eric Thames (L) LF Ryan Braun ® 3B Travis Shaw (L) RF Domingo Santana ® C Manny Pina ® CF Keon Broxton ® SS Orlando Arcia ® P Zach Davies ®

Mix that in with a Keon Broxton streak and we could win a World Series. That's why post season is so crazy. It just takes a few players to get hot and they can carry a club a long ways.

Exactly. I'm happy for the guy. He's put himself in the position with some great play this year. Simple fact is that Aguilar and Thames were ahead of Cooper. Unless there were some injuries and/or someone fell off a cliff, he wasn't going to play for Milwaukee this year. And then this winter there would be a good chance someone selected him in the Rule 5 draft - and we'd still be losing him. I think one of the big fears we have is giving up on a player or trading someone and having him do well for another team. But that happens. It's part of the way the world works. Segura, Haniger are a couple of other examples, but we can flip that around and mention Villar (at least in 2016), Broxton, Anderson (at least in 2017), Shaw, etc., etc. I hope Cooper does well. Even if he can just be average-ish (the AL average for a 1B is a .797 OPS), he would be a great success for the Yankees. And he seems like a good guy - it would be nice to see him succeed.

It appears that the Tigers have not-great OF depth in their organization. The current stats bear it out; it's mentioned in Detroit-centric sports columns. Additionally, Justin Upton has an opt-out clause in his contract after the 2017 season, which could be exercised if he turns it up the rest of the season and thinks he can be an attractive free agent. That would make Brinson a key piece in any potential trade with Detroit. I'd suggest that any trade for Fulmer would involve several OF prospects. Additionally, the Tigers trading away a young starting pitcher would hurt their pitching rotation. I'd expect they would have interest in a young major league starter or a near major-league ready starter. The Tigers infield is also aging with Kinsler at 2B and Romine playing UT. So a major league or near major-league ready infielder might be sought. So throwing that all together, I'd think we'd be looking at something like this: Fulmer = Brinson, Phillips, Dubon/Villar, and Davies/Woodruff. MLB trade rumors said Detroit wanted both Baez and Happ from the Cubs for Fulmer. Would a package with Brinson/Villar get it done? I'd do that in a heart beat Happ and Baez are worth more than Villar/Brinson. If Detroit came and offered Fulmer for Brinson and Villlar - you do it as fast as possible.

I thought Gindl might make a modest big league career as a backup left handed corner OF. He had a nice debut in 2013 - .779 OPS on 155 plate appearances. Not bad (not that good either). But he kind of went in the tank after that. He just didn't do anything that well. Not enough power. Hit good, but not great. Nothing special on defense.

The thing that is funny is that after the Red Sox gave Panda the contract, I don't know anyone who said, "Yep, solid move." Everyone pretty much shook their head and said, "That's not going to end well." Heck, it never began well. I'm guessing the signing (along with Ramirez) was Cherington trying to save his job. Crazy.

I've shared this before, but I'll add it. I was at Game 5 of the WS in Milwaukee. I was 18 at the time. Don't remember a ton - just that it was packed and crazy. Remember Robin hitting the HR. Caldwell almost going the distance. And I remember the fans pouring on the field when we won. On the negative side, I remember people peeing in the sinks it was so crowded. Lines at the urinals were 5-6 deep.

For the Cubs, the guy I would want to give up is Schwarber. He's a guy without a position. He should play DH or 1B - and that's not happening in Chicago. Cub fans became overly attached to Schwarber based on a few big moments. The reality is that he hit just fine (at least for that first year or so) for a young guy. He has 30 HR potential - that's pretty tantalizing. But the reality was that he was a left handed hitting Mike Napoli (at least at the plate). Mediocre average, lots of power potential, below average baserunner - but he was never the next Mark McGwire (even if Cub fans thought that's what he was). Doesn't mean the guy won't someday bang out 40 dingers - but he's likely going to do it hitting .250 and not .300. So, if I were the Cubs, I'd be building a trade around Schwarber if possible. Happ could play LF, Baez 2B, Russell SS. Zobrist is probably best as a utility guy - sort of our Hernan Perez. The guy is 35, and age may be finally catching up with him. But the Cubs are stuck with him for 2.5 more years - so they should keep him fresh. Zobrist might be best getting 350-400 ABs instead of being out there every day. Schwarber, Jeimer Candelario and maybe a low level pitching prospect might work for Oakland. Although I think someone said that Oakland wanted a major pitching prospect back in any deal for Gray. If that's true, this doesn't work. And it doesn't work if Oakland isn't enthralled with Schwarber. Who knows. Fun to speculate.

The question is what do the Cubs trade for Gray? They've traded their top guys. Candelario is interesting - but nothing great. I'm guessing they would have to dip into their major league roster - Happ, Baez, Schwarber, and Russell are a few names. Perhaps the A's like their lower level prospects - never know with Beane.

Kung Fu Panda is DFA. Wow, that was a waste of $95M. According the Baseball-Reference, he produced -2.0 WAR in his 2.5 seasons in Boston. Red Sox fans must be banging their heads against the walls every time Travis Shaw hits an HR. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/20040647/boston-red-sox-designate-pablo-sandoval-assignment

Phillips also offers some depth in case Braun runs into any issues and can't play.

The Yankees will lose Michael Pineda to a to UCL. Tommy John surgery has been recommended. The injury affects Milwaukee indirectly, as the Yankees will likely be looking for rotation help, something that the Brewers may pursue in the coming weeks. Pineda is seeking a second opinion, possibly hoping he can do a stem cell procedure or platelet-rich plasma injection instead. No matter, he's almost assuredly done for the year - and possibly 2018 if TJ is done. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/michael-pineda-tommy-john-surgery-yankees.html Pineda is scheduled to be a free agent after this season, so the injury comes at a horrible time for him.

Have you looked at Hamels stats recently? Ace he is not anymore. Hamels is interesting. He threw 200+ innings last year. 5.0 bWAR. 3.0 fWAR. He's thrown 200+ innings for seven years running. That won't happen this year, however, due to an oblique injury. But he's back, and his last couple of starts he has been great (14.1 IP, 2ER, 2BB, 12K). He's consistently been a very good pitcher - and at 33 I doubt he'll ever be great again. I'm not saying to trade for the guy - but he's only under contract through next year (although his 2019 season could vest) - so the monetary demands aren't huge. Financial flexibility gives us the opportunity to take on some salary. Again, not saying it should be Hamels - but it is an option. I am always wary of aging pitchers. That sort of investment rarely pays off. NOTE: I think Hamels has a full no trade clause - but that's just going from memory.

Here's an article about the sudden rise in blister problems in baseball. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/blisters-and-the-new-ball/ No hard data - just a lot of anecdotal information about how many more people are getting blisters. The theory is that the lower seams are causing players to have to work to get a little better grip on the ball - thus more blisters. Disabled stints are up 50% for blisters since early 2016 - when the lower seams were reportedly first detected. Again, no real scientific work here. But some interesting testimony (even if most of it is anonymous).

I thought this was an interesting article by Ben Lindbergh at theringer.com https://theringer.com/2017-mlb-home-run-spike-juiced-ball-testing-reveal-155cd21108bc Basically shows that the ball is slightly bouncier, the seams are a little smoother (meaning less drag on the ball), and the ball is slightly smaller. All these things are quite small in of themselves, but the calculations show it adds 7 feet of distance to a hit ball. Makes for more HRs.

Scouting report on Webb: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/6/26/15865430/tyler-webb-lhp-new-york-yankees

As much as a love Jimenez as a prospect, I think the move is good for the Cubs. They get a key rotation piece for 3.5 years. Right now, they are team that should be in the playoff hunt every year. The biggest issue for them was starting pitching. This move helps address that issue in a big way. Plus, Quintana is pretty cheap, so that frees up money to address other areas of need in the off season (such as another starting pitcher!). Of course, if Quintana goes in the tank or is hurt, it looks terrible. But every move you make (or don't make) is a risk.