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Trail

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Everything posted by Trail

  1. Trail
    The Brewers are leaning very heavily on their young starters...and its working out really well. I worry about late season and the playoffs. Most of these guys have not pitched a full-year MLB schedule, and we know that for their long term health they can only increase innings year to year by a certain percentage. Even the second year guys (Miz, Patrick) I'm sure will have some sort of a cap. Anyone else concerned about this? We could be in the middle of a pennant race and have to cut some of these guys way back. Could this be a reason Murphy is leaning heavily on middle relief this year (Ashby, Patrick, Drohan, etc)? Could this be a reason to bring in a veteran starter before the deadline?
  2. Trail
    This is really nice...thank you!
  3. Trail
    I think you just brought up an interesting point about the Brewers position in the marketplace. Being where they are relieves them of the need to re-sign productive, popular, but declining (or about to decline) players. For instance...no way I'd have signed Willie to any sort of a long term deal...even if we had the payroll to do it. (the deal he got from SF was irresponsible, IMO) The limited payroll forces some terrible choices, but you're also not making some of the bad investments that we see. (ya...at the end of the day I'd still rather have the money) In a way the Brewers are freed from making emotional decisions to please the fan base?
  4. Trail
    I don't disagree, but I don't know if they can afford him. There's always hope, but I think they've already tried to extend him and it didn't go anywhere. He's not really hitting for power, so maybe that moderates the price a little?....but I just don't see it happening. Maybe a new CBA opens some doors? If they do sign him...you trade Quero and should get a good return on that.
  5. Trail
    Its not really about the playoffs, but I think at some point this year you HAVE TO bring up Quero. If memory serves, Contreras is under team control through '27...so to get maximum value you probably have to trade him this winter. Before you do that you'd better know what you have in Quero. Sanchez has good leadership qualities and has playoff experience, but he's nothing special offensively or defensively.
  6. Trail
    Would it make sense if they brought them up together...make the MLB transition easier from a comfort/familiarity standpoint...or am I putting too much value on that?
  7. Trail
    Ya...cap. Obviously there's a lot more to it, but choosing between the two is easy. I'm just wondering if a floor isn't going to be just as contentious as a cap. The smaller market teams...especially in down years where their gate and TV ratings are low, might struggle a bit. One more reason that the deal has to include revenue sharing for all TV. Having said all that...be carful what you ask for. Right now the Brewers, who know they can't compete on higher-level free agents, put their resources into the minor leagues...coaching, scouting, development, facilities, pitching lab, Latin America, and other things we don't even know about. Where organizational strength/smarts can level the playing field. Attanasio has a system that seems to work. Wondering if a financial structure that pushes a higher % of resources into the major leagues might negate that a bit? ...but we still need a cap :)
  8. Trail
    I think Hamilton stays where he is. He's doing what they want him to do. Acceptable defense at 3 positions, decent OBP, steal some bases.
  9. Trail
    Ya...we know he can hit the ball. For those who watch these things carefully, what are you seeing in the field? Instincts, arm, etc. (this is his first year playing outfield full time).
  10. Trail
    I think you're all right about Perkins. Everyone loves the guy...clubhouse, front office, fans...but it might be time. He's sort of like Joey...if he can hit .230, he's a starter somewhere...he's that good defensively. Interesting argument between Lara and Leonard. The Brewers seem to want to go slow with Lara given his age, but damn...its not like he's been at all streaky. Problem of course is AB's. If he takes Perkins' place, he's playing sparingly. Maybe he takes a few AB's from both Mitchel and Sal?
  11. Trail
    You have to factor it in because of the dollars involved, and the percentage of the payroll a contract like that would take up on a small market team. So, yes, pitchers are injury risks...and expensive pitchers are bigger risks (see Corbin Burns). Other franchises can take that sort of risk...ours has to be incredibly careful where they put their dollars. Until the system changes, that's how the Brewers have to operate. That's not to say the Brewers can't extend players. But they have to carefully play the odds. That's all they can do. You might point at Yelli, but he was a very good bet. The odds of him taking a fastball in the kneecap were incredibly low. Peralta worked out well...but his deal was so team-friendly that had he gone down for a couple years, it wouldn't have crippled the team financially. Woody might not work out, but that's one year.
  12. Trail
    No. Its just not good business. Especially not for a pitcher. You can point at Ashby, but I think that contract is child's play compared to what it would take to lock up Miz. I hate it, but a franchise like ours cannot have that kind of money tied up for 2 years in a guy down with Tommy John (or whatever). Especially if he comes back with reduced velo. Just enjoy him, his amazing talent, and his enthusiasm. When the time comes, if he stays healthy, and we trade him, the Brewers should bring in an amazing haul. The economics of baseball just don't allow small market teams to take those kinds of risks (not responsibly, anyway). We'll probably have him through his best years, and that will have to be enough.
  13. Trail
    Thanks, Spencer. It'll be interesting to see how that looks mid-season...whether the additional innings help or hurt....
  14. Trail
    Just wondering how its coming (for those who really watch these things). I look at the box scores and see some SB's and some CS's...but I'm guessing that doesn't really tell the story. How are pop-times, accuracy and velocity coming along?
  15. Trail
    I have to agree. The rules were made for a different time. Maybe "starter goes 4, leaves with the lead (and they keep it), and no one else goes more than 2"?
  16. Trail
    Too soon for Pratt. He needs to be hitting somewhere around .240-ish in order to bring him up...and he'll get there. I'd make the move with Hamilton. You'll lose something in the field and pick up something on offense...and worst case you break even. Personally, I think the Brewers are doing Joey a disservice by keeping him with the big club right now. He can be fixed, I think, but its not going to happen in Milwaukee. He's got options...send him down to AAA and let him work on it. Don't let him get so ground down that he can't recover. He's a defensive wizard, and all he needs to do is "not be terrible" at the plate. Right now the guy's probably all twisted up...let him go down and get right.
  17. Trail
    95 wins. Ya, that sounds a bit bullish, but I just don't see many places where there should be regression. Maybe Frelick, but I don't think it will be that much. Losing Freddy will certainly hurt, but Woodruff should be present all year (managed carefully) and they have great depth. I'm assuming here that Priester comes back and is effective. Contrares has all his digits working, Yelich is a year older but confident in his health (also managed carefully), first base looks upgraded, and shortstop can only get better (offensively). Bullpen looks very deep and very solid. What they've done with starting pitching depth is really impressive. It might take some time to determine who really works out at the major league level, but they'll have 5 strong starters after the sorting...with others waiting. Miz should be better, too...and we'll have him for the whole year. Very excited to see which version of Bauers we have, and how Chourio develops. The real wild card?....what if Mitchell finally finds some of that potential? Think about the lineup if that happens... Injuries are always the unknown, and I think the bottom of the division will be tougher...but I actually see a better, deeper Brewers team this year. Its just hard to predict OVER 97 wins.
  18. Trail
    We knew Freddy was inevitable. No one liked it but that's the rules we have to play by. Durbin was this young, likeable, "hustle" kid who surprised everyone with his performance in '25. The reasons for the trade were sound...he could easily regress a bit in '26 (hurting his value) and there wasn't really going to be much room for him starting in '27. Still...he was an easy player to like and root for.
  19. Trail
    Picking one name at each position...no cheating ;) 1B Fisher 2B Williams SS Pratt 3B Made I think Pratt and Made's offensive profiles will mean a move to 3rd for Made. Either one of them could play either position. Maybe I'm being a dreamer, but I see Pratt very much in Yount's mold...great defense with offense developing once he's been in the majors for a couple years. Made, I think will come on quicker. Williams is a little bit of a reach, because we only have what we've read to go on, but once they move Pena to the outfield, I don't know that they'll move him back. And...if one of Adams/Wilken/ Burke work out, they can leave Fisher at 3rd, move Pratt to 2nd, leave Made at short. Some of this is also affected by the outfield situation. If Mitchell doesn't work out the way they hope, Williams will be moved out there (assuming Lara's offensive profile limits him to being a 4th outfielder). Or if someone establishes as the every day left fielder, Chourio moves to center and Williams is now a full time infielder. Lastly...I don't think we'll be able to extend Turang. He may have already priced himself out of the Brewer's range. Hope I'm wrong, but if he has the kind of year we all suspect he might, there will be amazing pressure on him to set the standard for money at second base. We have a couple years before worrying about that. Wow...what great problems to have!! Go Brew.
  20. Trail
    I think there is more coming. They're stock up on starters, and someone is going to have a crisis and need a starter before opening day. The Brewers will be the first call. Matt A will be able to name his price for a Gasser, Henderson, Crow, etc.
  21. Trail
    I want to see a competition for SS. I just saw too many clueless, uncompetitive at bats last year...some in key situations. I've lost a little faith in Joey. You can point out his rookie year, but the league has figured him out and he has not adjusted. I'm no expert, but it seems to me every time Monasterio gets consistent AB's, he performs well. I think we saw some of that last year. Ya...the defense isn't as good, but this team needs offense.
  22. Trail
    That money is spent. He is who he is...and luckily he's not a bust, but a fantastic reliever who can carry a very heavy load when needed.
  23. Trail
    I don't like moving Collins, because he literally can play almost any position on the diamond in a pinch. However we have Garrett Mitchell coming back (stops and says a short prayer) and he's going to eat a lot of at-bats. I think we have to remember that. I also believe that, unless there's a major trade, Bauers is going to see more AB's playing in left than we realize in order to supply some needed power. I also think they don't want to squeeze out Perkins. If Zerpa is truly a "leverage" guy, I guess this makes sense...but I'd like to have seen a lower-level prospect added in.
  24. Trail
    You have to trade him. You just do. I've posted before...I hate it, but that's how the system is set up and the Brewers have done a good job working with it as best they can. His market value will never be higher...and yes, we need a big bat. Probably left field. Honestly, a really productive left fielder (30-40 hr and .250+ BA) might be more valuable to this team than Freddie. Those don't grow on trees, but the Brewers have a lot of capitol to work with. I'd package Blake Perkins with Freddie and a nice prospect. Blake deserves to start somewhere anyway. If by some miracle we can extend Freddie before the winter meetings, then great! I'm not holding my breath.
  25. Trail
    I don't know. We've all followed him through the minors and through his injury. We're all rooting for him. However, there was nothing "special" about him in 2025. Hopefully he gets closer to the guy he was before the injury, but I think he needs more time in triple A. More at bats, more chances to figure out his defense. He cannot rely on an elite arm any more, so he'll need to compensate. Sure...he could come up to the big club and be an OK backup, but that's not what the Brewers need....they need someone to step in for 2027 or 2028.
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