PeaveyFury
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Everything posted by PeaveyFury
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Interesting stuff in this study: However, case-patients were more likely to have reported dining at a restaurant in the 2 weeks before illness onset than were control-participants. Further, when the analysis was restricted to the 225 participants who did not report recent close contact with a person with known COVID-19, case-patients were more likely than were control-participants to have reported dining at a restaurant or going to a bar/coffee shop..... Adults with confirmed COVID-19 (case-patients) were approximately twice as likely as were control-participants to have reported dining at a restaurant in the 14 days before becoming ill. In addition to dining at a restaurant, case-patients were more likely to report going to a bar/coffee shop Hence, people testing positive are indeed people who are engaging in 'riskier' behaviors. Also worth noting that those that tested positive after visiting a bar only had 15% report that there was legitimate mask wearing compliance for the other patrons, and only 40% for restaurants.
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Links? Don't know where the CDC one is coming from but the WHO one is widely known. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/10/11/covid-hospitalizations-up-11-state-records-who-questions-lockdowns/5960078002/ Helpful context on the actual statement, which was made by one WHO doctor rather than the organization itself: https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/10/13/who-warning-about-covid-19-coronavirus-lockdowns-is-taken-out-of-context/
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Links?
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I'm really confused as to what the purpose was for bumping this thread, and the ensuing discussion. The Packers clearly drafted with the future in mind, and a guy like Queen would look great in green and gold, but having/not having him hasn't negatively effected the team to this point. Trying to grade a draft after 4-5 games the next season is unproductive, especially when the 'make or break' player of the draft won't play for 2-3 years by design. If he gives them a third consecutive high-level QB, there won't be a single person who cares who was left on the board when they traded up to get him.
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Has he needed to be?
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No, the main reason is still selfishness and indifference. But your point is also problematic- people have no patience for a novel virus. They want to know exactly what to immediately, and they also have nothing but disdain and skepticism when that guidance changes as more is found out.
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Thanks for posting this. The continued downplaying of McNeil as a player/possible return is a little baffling to me.
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The difference is that Sanchez can actually play catcher well. I agree that interest in a trade would be solely dependent on the required return, but he would be a really good buy-low candidate by all other metrics.
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And yet you ARE minimizing, while again citing the talking point of the week that is being used by those that wish to continue to try and downplay the severity of this pandemic which they have so badly misjudged since day 1. So, let's actually put things in perspective: U.S. Flu Deaths by Year: 2010: 37,000 2011: 12,000 2012: 43,000 2013: 38,000 2014: 51,000 2015: 23,000 2016: 38,000 2017: 61,000 2018: 34,000 2019: 22,000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html As a reminder, 2020 U.S. COVID Deaths: 212,000 and counting. For additional perspective, the H1N1 Swine Flu pandemic resulted in 12,469 U.S. deaths in 2009. https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm So, not even factoring in the current absurdly bad spike in cases/hospitalizations as of yet, you're at 3.5x the deaths of a 'really bad' flu season. Additionally, has anyone seen current estimates of what the death toll would currently be if the restrictions that were actually put in place hadn't been, and if we had treated this pandemic with the modest indifference that a flu season is? People were making the 'it's just the flu' argument waaaaay back in March, and the continued question in my mind is how much did the quarantine, etc (which again were met with complaining and hostility even way back then) actually help suppress the current numbers? And, obviously, how much better would the numbers be if people had actually done the minimal stuff that was asked of them over the past few months?
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I actually agree with every single point/question here.
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Though true, this is easier than it initially appears, I believe. The franchise number is actually surprisingly low for RBs (I believe it was ~$10 mil for 2020). The draft class won't count against the cap until they're signed in May, well after the league season starts, so the Packers enter the new league year as of now with about half of what they'd need. I'm uber-confident they'd just open up the rest by cutting Kirksey or some equivalent. EDIT: The actual # was $12mil for RBs in 2020. Far less than the more premium positions like QB, which was ~$27m.
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For the record, I also agree with this. I don't think that we'd be anywhere close to done with this, and I also agree that a vaccine is the true end of all of it. But I'm confident that things would be in a better place now if more was done over the past 6-7 months.
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Further info on the actions Japan actually took to clamp down on the virus: Based on this scientific finding, Japan decided to prioritize preventing clusters from spawning new clusters by retroactively tracing the chain of transmission. Under this strategy, the Japanese government conducts rigorous contact tracing; therefore, given its finite testing capacity, Japan’s testing operations are focused on potential and identified clusters as opposed to mass testing. Besides that, under Japan’s Infectious Disease Act, at the very early stage of the outbreak, any person testing positive for COVID-19, whether symptomatic or not, was required in principle to be hospitalized at a medical facility And regarding their testing policy: Japan’s unique testing policy has been criticized both within and outside of the country, despite the low number of deaths in this country. There is a concern that the actual status of the epidemic in Japan may be inadequately captured, primarily because of the small number of PCR tests. However, compared to other countries, the positivity rate in Japan (the number of positive PRC test results as a percentage of total PCR tests performed) is relatively low at 5.5 percent (compared to 6.0 percent in Germany, 17.4 percent in the United States, and 26.9 percent in the United Kingdom), indicating that Japan has been adequately detecting COVID-19 cases. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/06/28/commentary/japan-commentary/japans-pragmatic-approach-covid-19-testing/
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Couldn't this also be viewed as 'Wisconsin has more cases than Japan despite having 1/25th of the population??' Regarding Japan's population and health, you also left out that their population also has a long history of voluntary mask wearing to prevent typical disease spread.
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FWIW, Over The Cap says Preston Smith’s 2021 cap number is $16 million. If they cut him, there would be $8 million in dead money, but $8 million in savings. His 2022 cap number is $16.5 million with only $4 million in dead money and $12.5 million in potential savings. Exactly right. They have a monster out after this year, which I expect them to take unless they restructure those numbers significantly. I can't see them paying that huge roster bonus next March.
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Honestly, today is the first time since he signed that I actually looked at the structure of his contract. It's actually apparent now that the Packers only intended it to be a 2-year deal even when it was signed. I see very, very little way they keep him on the roster with a $16 million cap hit in each of the next two seasons. He's either restructured or gone this off season.
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Thanks for summarizing my view better than I've been able to, as I agree completely.
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Does Preston Smith have trade value? Assuming the Packers eat the amortized signing bonus at the time of trade, his contract becomes a bit more palatable to a team who potentially trades for him. They structured Preston's deal a bit odd in the fact that he received a relatively low signing bonus relative to his base salaries in the back end of the deal. You'd have to bank on a team thinking that even with the Packers eating the pro-rated signing bonus, that he's worth a $12m cap hit in 2021 and a $12.5 mil cap hit in 2022. His drop off this year has been fairly huge thus far, so it remains to be seen whether that's a 4-game anomaly or the start of a downward trend.
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Bold added by me for emphasis. The State of Wisconsin has had more cases than the COUNTRY OF JAPAN, and the COUNTRY OF AUSTRALIA. The difference? Enacting proper policies to contain the virus, and a populace willing to adhere to them.
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No, I follow you. If we're assuming that the Smiths would be on board, you can conceivably free up ~$3 million more from Preston Smith and ~$4 million from Z. Combined, that's less than you'd save from just cutting Preston.
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Oddly, the way Rodgers' contract is currently structured, they'd only free up ~$4-5 million next year if they trade him. Their real 'out' is AFTER the 2021 season.
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A tag-and-trade of Jones makes a lot of sense to me, if feasible. It's been so long since the Packers used one of their tags, I haven't kept up on the details.
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Kirksey- $6million savings Lowry- $3.3 million Wagner (keeping Turner)- $4.25 million savings = $13.5 million. Definitely enough to sign Bakh, but as you say, not much else via cuts. You also don't lose much by letting these guys go, assuming you can address LB/OT depth in the draft, and Lowry is just a d-line warm body. Restructures? Depends on what the Smiths would be willing to do. There's probably $15-18 million there if they restructure, but I'm less confident of that.
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I can't get on board with Andujar. He only makes sense if 1)the DH stays in the NL long-term, and 2)if the Brewers didn't already have two/three DH candidates on the expected 2021 roster. Obviously, we're not sure yet what they'll do with Vogelbach and Braun, but Hiura is headed to the DH role at some point....
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The practice squad signing is a formality. Per new NFL rules, new signings have to have 6 days of negative COVID tests to even enter the building, which means that Harrison isn't going to be able to play this weekend for the Seahawks anyway. Why waste a 53-man spot on a guy who won't be eligible to be up this weekend? They'll likely elevate him next Monday. Ah, thanks! That makes WAAAAY more sense.
