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PeaveyFury

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Everything posted by PeaveyFury

  1. PeaveyFury
    I'm not a huge fan of park adjusted stats because they treat all types of pitchers the same. they just don't have the data to break it down into this park favors that pitcher and not the other. An example would be san diego which favors fly ball pitchers because quite simply its hard to hit HR's there. However it doesn't really favor ground ball pitchers. That argument makes Suppan to Milwaukee all that more compelling, as his very slanted groundball/flyball ratio would make a switch to a serious groundball friendly park like Miller all that much better than a truly park neutral ERA+.
  2. PeaveyFury
    Jenkins' WARP in 2005: 3.9 Huff's WARP in 2005: 2.8 So yes, Jenkins is the better player. Not sure why 2005 is even in doubt, as yes, Jenkins outhit Huff in 05. But Huff outhit Jenkins in both 04 and 06. Defensively, Jenkins is better, but I'd like to see 2006 numbers to see just how much of a difference there actually is. And is WARP accounting for Huff playing three different positions in 2005, while Jenks was solely a LF?
  3. PeaveyFury
    I'd rather just play it out with Jenkins and make a move next offseason, when the FA market is supposedly going to be a lot deeper than commit to Huff for 4 years. I do agree with that, and if brettac thinks that Jenkins will rebound, than I can respect that opinion/POV as well. However, if somehow we could snag him for 2/12-15, I'd have zero problem if we could flip Jenkins/Mench to upgrade other places, as it'd help us make a better run in 2007.
  4. PeaveyFury
    Royster came out to remove DeJean from a save situation, and DeJean went off on him. In retrospect, it would have made that horrible 2002 season much more entertaining if he'd have socked him or something. That said, as always, I'd have zero problem with pretty much any arm on a minor league deal with a ST invite, including DeJean.
  5. PeaveyFury
    Again, ERA is a poor predictor of future success. If that's the main argument, I don't see why park-adjusted ERA is any worse an indicator of future success than FIP-based ERA, which is being used by the anti-Suppan arguers. I think there's something serious to be said for his consistent above-average pitching even after adjusting for the slight pitchers' park leanings of Busch. Suppan has had success regardless of a low K-rate throughout his entire career. Sure, it might catch up to him, but why should it change now?
  6. PeaveyFury
    There's not much of a difference between .791/.798 and .819. But even then that would mean that they're not "the same" as was the previous argument, and that was my point. Committing $9 million a year or whatever he wants for that small of a difference would be stupid. So by that, I gather that you think Jenkins will either rebound or get no worse? It's a Davis-like question: If he rebounds, he's a good, useful player. If 2006 was a sign of regression, we're hitting the point where Jenks won't be useful in any role for much longer. Considering his age, betting on a rebound doesn't seem to be the best plan here. As I said, I wouldn't be opposed to Huff, depending on the money. I agree that 9 million per is rough, but if we can trade Jenkins for bullpen help, we not only get better offensively to some degree, but also improve a very questionable pen, and I don't see what the counter argument to that is. Probably doesn't matter, as we're not signing Huff anyway unless Mench and Jenkins are both gone first.
  7. PeaveyFury
    To extrapolate on Dhonks' point: Suppan's ERA+ numbers from 1999-2006: 109 103 112 97 105 100 120 107 Please, find a way to get this guy.
  8. PeaveyFury
    There's no way the infield can screw it up Well, yes, if you don't count the catcher as part of the infield. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  9. PeaveyFury
    How about Jenkins bad years are the same as Huff's career numbers? Huff's career OPS: .819 Jenkins' 2006: .791 2004: .798 2002: .764 Sorry, but no.
  10. PeaveyFury
    Jenkins is definately better, and Mench is also about a .800 OPS corner OFer with bad defense. Jenkins has now had two bad years surrounding one good one in that same three years, while Huff had two good ones surrounding a bad one. At age 32, expecting Jenkins to bounce back again seems quite unreasonable. Mench's OPS numbers the last three years in order: .874, .797, and .729. Seems like a pretty serious downward trend to me, especially considering that he's played 95% of his career in the #5 best hitters' park in baseball and doesn't even have an .800 OPS for his career. Huff probably wouldn't be a significant upgrade over what we have now, but if we can trade Jenkins and Mench to improve the bullpen, I'd have little problem signing Huff to play OF depending on what it would take to sign him.
  11. PeaveyFury
    Jenkins is better. Koskie is better. Gross is better. Mench is the same. Hall is better. Fielder is better. Hart is better. The Brewers just have no room for him. I'll give you Koskie, Hall, Hart and even Gross if his 200 2006 AB's are legit, but I'm not sure how he's worse than Jenkins or even mentioned in the same breath with Mench.
  12. PeaveyFury
    As someone previously said, acquiring Suppan should get Doug and Gord to start widening their scope for Mench/Clark/Jenkins trade proposals, as they won't have to be focused on SP depth. When you consider that upgrading a very questionable bullpen as well as possibly CF or a corner OF spot are needed depending on where Hall actually plays, I'd say that a broader scope for returns is very welcomed. Not to mention that we'd have the best rotation in the division by far, and be right up there for the tops in the NL.
  13. PeaveyFury
    Eveland had some solid big league experience from 2005 A 5.97 ERA and 1.85 WHIP is not solid in any way, shape or form. Our seventh man would be our tenth man from the year before. You're simply too hung up on the number of options, rather than the actual quality of them. If your definition of depth is that we had more bodies to choose from in 2006, fine, you're right. But I prefer to define it as having a number of quality starters with a couple quality backup options, ie having 7-8 legitimately good options is a heck of a lot better than having 10-11 options with 4-5 of those being poor.
  14. PeaveyFury
    Not that it's a bad way to go into '07, but we were "hooked up phat" when we came into '06 with a ton of SP depth. Having bodies there does not equal depth. Having Hendrickson, Eveland, de la Rosa, and even Jackson at that point didn't provide depth, it provided struggles and losses. Helling is a bit of another story, but counting on him to stay healthy after a fluke-ish 2005 was probably not a good idea, and didn't really provide any depth at all in 2006. I think we're a ton better off with CV as our backup than Helling ten times out of ten.
  15. PeaveyFury
    I'd actually consider that deal, Weirdos (provided our medical staff deems him healthy and good to go). I'd most certainly consider the 3/21-3/24 we were talking about with Doug Davis. I'm convinced that his crappy ERA last year was due to his injury, and the guy is only one season removed from a very nice year. The market for Mulder has been extremely quiet and actually quite non-existent since the D-Backs acquired Davis and seemed to cool on Mulder, as they were the only team that had openly been interested in him.
  16. PeaveyFury
    Well, either we're not caving in to their offers of basically crap in return (Lopez) or guys they don't need/want for various reasons (Lieber), or the Brewers' OF's were actually their third or fourth option behind Gonzalez, instead of their second like we were told.
  17. PeaveyFury
    Yes, please. I don't think that deal gets him though.
  18. PeaveyFury
    I'd want Burrell for sure, but getting him to agree to it is going to be a pain.
  19. PeaveyFury
    Rotoworlds further thoughts: The Phillies have reportedly lost interest in Kevin Mench after they weren't forced to include Aaron Rowand in the deal for Garcia. Instead, Lieber could be traded for a package that includes Derrick Turnbow.
  20. PeaveyFury
    Not that I'm doubting the validity, but that link at rotoworld doesn't actually go to the JS, and no article of the sorts is on JSonline at this point.
  21. PeaveyFury
    McCalvy: One of those four phone calls investigating rumors on Wednesday was sparked by an item that said Tampa Bay would consider offers for outfielder Carl Crawford. The Brewers were told that he's not available. milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com...p&c_id=mil
  22. PeaveyFury
    The latest Brewers.com article from McCalvy reports that a Brewer deal is in place contingent on the other team making a move, but Melvin flatly denies that it's with the Phillies yet again: Melvin also continued to flat-out deny persisting rumors that he's working with Phillies GM Pat Gillick on a trade that would include Mench and Philadelphia right-hander Jon Lieber. "The only thing we've talked about with Pat is the possibility they might want to purchase our Rule 5 guy," he said. milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com...p&c_id=mil
  23. PeaveyFury
    It's tough to judge what Lieber will do in the future, as he's thrown about 2000 innings and could break down, but he's a stud compared to Mark H. I'd say banking on a guy that will be 37 at the start of 2007 to rebound in any way is quite unlikely. He's had two poor years out of the last three (his 2004 ERA is quite deceptive). I'll take the guy who is 4-5 years younger, 5 million cheaper, had a better season last year, and probably wouldn't cost us Turnbow to acquire as well. I'd still rather have Mench than either of them, but yes, if Lieber rebounds to his 2005 form, he's better.
  24. PeaveyFury
    I'd like Hendrickson about 400 times more than Lieber, as he's younger, better, and much, much cheaper at this point- and we likely wouldn't have to include Turnbow. Make that trade, Doug.... don't bother with this Philly garbage.
  25. PeaveyFury
    Braves would also get Armando Benitez. Oh, well that makes it much worse for the Braves then.
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