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adambr2

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Everything posted by adambr2

  1. adambr2
    Regardless of whether Toronto or anywhere else makes sense from that team's perspective, it's a moot point if Braun doesn't want to go there. In the case of Toronto, if he doesn't have the desire to play there, I doubt that even putting the 5th year in his court will outweigh playing 4+ years somewhere that he doesn't want to play.
  2. adambr2
    What does everyone think of this guy as a future pro? Unlikely? Utility infielder? Every day regular? Star player? Opinions seems all over the place, this is a guy who wasn't ever supposed to get this good this fast, drafted in the 26th round and as soon as a year ago people were still saying utility player at best. Yet with every promotion he continues to destroy every level at every rung of the ladder he climbs, against older competition. So at 22, what is the future for Dubon?
  3. adambr2
    Not that you can take much from Venezuelan Winter Ball, but Perez tore it up. Batting title and gold glove. I guess if I had to find a negative of a .373/.393/.502 slash line, it's that he still isn't taking walks. If he can ever improve his plate discipline he has a chance to be a very valuable player.
  4. adambr2
    But even if not, this is still a rebuilding team. Going with OFs with little experience on the roster is to be expected. We're not looking to load the outfield with veterans, I'm sure. I see no issue with going into the season with Nieuwenhuis as the 4th and Perez as the 5th outfielder. Brinson is just about ready and Phillips and Cordell are not far behind.
  5. adambr2
    I remember the Cardinals winning it all with I think 83 wins sometime in the last 10 years or so. They were a WC the year they beat us in the NLCS and won it all too, not sure if they were the worst record playoff team without looking it up. To me the big factor that makes it tougher for WC teams to win it all now is having to win the extra play in game. You can win 95, not win your division, play 1 game, and have it all gone.
  6. adambr2
    Brinson seems likely to come up in 2017 around when Arcia came up in 2016, or September at worst. Any potential Braun trade should be based solely on whether or not it is the right deal for us, and should have nothing to do with what our OF depth looks like next year. Given that a Braun trade is a big picture rebuild item, we have plenty of OF prospects on the way in the near future, and 2017 won't be a contending season, it would be really shortsighted to pass on the right deal for Braun based on our 2017 outfield depth, IMO. Besides, if it were a deal with the Dodgers that brought back Puig, the depth issue would be a moot point anyway.
  7. adambr2
    Door B. You take the WS win. With 30 teams in the league, you're gold if you can win one in a decade. I think most people would take the guaranteed WS, including Mark A. But that's not how the game works, because no one can guarantee a championship. And the best way to win a championship is getting into the dance as often as possible with the best team you can afford. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. ( seriously, don't you now think Melvin should have traded MORE of the future in 2011 now knowing we didn't make the playoffs the last 5 years? Could we have won it with another piece or two... Furcal? A legit #5 hitter?).. More of what future in 2011? There was nothing left in the farm. The whole thing was gutted out after the Greinke trade. Really it was already pretty gutted after trading Lawrie, it was kind of impressive that we were still able to cobble enough together to land Greinke. The only moves possible after that were lower profile moves that we did do, like for Nyjer, Jerry Hairston, and K-Rod. The farm was already running on fumes at this point, there's nothing more we could have done to go for it. We did make those moves for another piece or two that you're suggesting.
  8. adambr2
    I'm with you on your thoughts on taking Door A. Look, a WS would be huge for this franchise, but part of what makes the season so fun is the journey to get there. If we made the journey only once and the other 9 seasons were not so fun, that would be miserable for me. I liken Door A to being a Packer fan. Do I wish we had more than 1 title during this era, of course. But these months are always very enjoyable because I go into every season knowing that if if things break right, my team has a chance to win it all. If Super Bowl 45 was our one guaranteed title and we were the Browns every other year, well, that would suck. Even though this is obviously hypothetical the closest real life comp I can think to these is Door A being the Braves of the 90s and early 2000s, and the Marlins being Door B in the same era. Even though the Marlins won more titles I would certainly think the hope and promise of every season made being a Braves fan a lot more fun during that era.
  9. adambr2
    Except you're going to break up the two LH bats in Thames and Shaw... Good point. Flip either Thames and Santana or Shaw and Susac. Or both.
  10. adambr2
    Opening day lineup guess: 1) Villar - 2B 2) Broxton - CF 3) Braun - LF 4) Santana - RF 5) Thames - 1B 6) Shaw - 3B 7) Susac - C 8) Arcia - SD 9) Guerra - P
  11. adambr2
    Tough choice, but I'd take the 5. Invest wisely and enjoy a great life. Me too. Both are life changing and obviously I could live like a king off 50, but using the 4% rule I could retire immediately and live off 200K a year on 5. That's plenty good enough for me, nothing is more valuable to me than my time. Plus given my luck I'm sure I'd get the coin flip wrong, and be miserable for a long time thinking about what could have been.
  12. adambr2
    You are offered a choice between $5 million dollars, or a 50/50 coin flip chance at $50 million dollars. Which do you choose?
  13. adambr2
    The Angels are going to need to throw in Matt Thaiss to get that done.
  14. adambr2
    I still think 2018 is still too early to count on anything close to contention. At this point this is still probably a 70-75 win team at best in 2017. Now reinforcements are on the way, and they'll start coming even faster in 2018 and 2019. But to count on a 10-15 win improvement over one season is basically banking on immediate production from most of those rookies and I think reality is there will be some growing pains. I do think 2020 sounds about right when looking at a point where we could realistically look to contend for the division, but there are still too many variables at play to say for sure. If I had to pick an over/under win total for 2019 right now I'd say about 81 with a chance to contend for a wild card if things break right.
  15. adambr2
    Also Hart was still a well below average 1st baseman. I don't remember him failing the eye test too miserably but the metrics were not kind to him.
  16. adambr2
    Can't imagine the Red Sox would be foolish enough to do this move, but if they were yeah I'd be all over it.
  17. adambr2
    I agree and I personally think it will be regardless of how the Cubs/Cards/Pirates do, at least in terms of being Wild Card contenders. If things go well (not even great), we could have the following lineup and starting rotation by mid 2018 (note I just took a stab in the dark for realistic / mildy optimistic stats). 1B: Thames (.275/.350/.475) 2B: Villar (.280/.360/.450) SS: Arcia (.260/.320/.430) 3B: Shaw (.260/.310/.440) LF: Braun (.300/.360/.500) CF: Brinson (.290/.330/.480) RF: Broxton (.260/.340/.430) C: Susac (.270/.330/.460) - chose his 2014 stats as his optimistic/realistic option Guerra (3.00 ERA / 1.15 WHIP) Davies (3.60 ERA / 1.25 WHIP) Hader (3.00 ERA / 1.20 WHIP) Ortiz (3.25 ERA / 1.30 WHIP) Peralta (4.00 ERA / 1.40 WHIP) That's a pretty potent/solid lineup with good defense all around. If we put together a good bullpen/bench with the remaining parts, I'd like to believe that could be an upper 80s win team vying for a playoff spot. Especially if someone has a breakout year. This also leaves the minors ripe with possible replacements/upgrades like Phillips, Bickford, Woodruff, Dubon, Lopez, and Cory Ray with Isan Diaz, Ecreg, Ponce, Diplan and more just a year away. I would certainly love if all of that came true but those seem like wildly optimistic projections to me. Or at least some of them.
  18. adambr2
    I have read this line over and over and can't figure out what it means? Could you explain it? Thank you. I'd think Braun could provide a 0 type Def WAR value at 1b. Based on what? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I just question how you came to the conclusion that Braun would be a league average defensive 1st baseman. He was a horrendous defensive 3rd baseman, and while 1st is definitely entirely different, I have a hard time seeing how his defensive skills would translate to an average first baseman despite not playing an inning there in his entire career. I think if the organization really believed that, Braun to 1st would have been much more highly considered this offseason.
  19. adambr2
    I'd like to add 2 things to that: 1) Adrian Gonzalez has 2 years left on his contract, not 4, which is a much lower risk for a team to trade for a player in his 30s. 2) No one is arguing that Adrian Gonzalez has positive trade value at the moment. Gonzalez was traded almost 5 years ago. Gonzalez' contract has nothing to do with Braun's trade value.
  20. adambr2
    I don't think Scooter is unwilling to play somewhere other than 2nd. I think Scooter is unable to play somewhere other than 2nd. Maybe a bad defensive left fielder?
  21. adambr2
    An extremely similar bat at a remarkably similar age couldn't even get 4 years and barely matched Braun's money, as a free agent, where any team was free to sign him for nothing more than a late 1st or early 2nd pick. What does that tell you about Braun's trade value?
  22. adambr2
    No, I'm just trying to look at this objectively. Puig alone is likely to bring a similar or better WAR than Braun over the next 3 years at a fraction of the cost. At this point we've pretty much determined that Braun's remaining contract is very near his FA value, giving him negligible trade value without taking on sufficient salary in return. Barring an MVP type year from Braun the optimal return probably exists only in theory and not in reality.
  23. adambr2
    Im going to assume that if the Dodgers dont get Dozier, its them not wanting to part with the same prospect Stearns is asking for. We aren't going to be able to get the kind of quality prospect for Braun as Dozier will command. Just ain't gonna happen. Not without eating more than half of his salary. Frankly if every team was taking on the salary of the acquired players, I'd trade Braun for Puig and McCarthy without really caring who the 2 prospects are.
  24. adambr2
    Might have been worth a flyer on a cheap reclamation project if we had nothing else going at 1st at this point in the offseason. But no point now with Thames as the guy. Hope Rogers lands on his feet somewhere.
  25. adambr2
    Hopefully Dozier ends up in Washington or St. Louis. The Dodgers could turn to Braun if they feel the NL is passing them by and get desperate to make a big move.
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