adambr2
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Everything posted by adambr2
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There's probably about 0 people total ever who have been convinced to look at things a little differently after reading a response like that. EDIT: This response was to a deleted post, not to Homer.
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Astros were getting beaned at crazy rates in spring training. Is it even going to feel appropriate anymore when the season resumes? Damn coronavirus.
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This thing might change Italy's entire demographics before it is done.
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Germany has become the gold standard for handling COVID-19. Anyone with mild symptoms can be tested. Easy drive thru testing. Almost 20K tests and just a 0.2% death rate.
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Definitely a lot more pushback the last day or two from those who are experiencing symptoms and can't get testing given the widespread celebrity testing. https://ruinmyweek.com/trending/celebrities-are-getting-priority-testing/?utm_content=bufferb6897&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=pizzabottle&utm_campaign=okayish
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Bold added for emphasis, as this is a big difference- non-essential businesses have been closed. Meaning, you can go to get food and gas, etc., but a lot of other businesses will be shut down. Working from home will obviously continue for those that can, though. I'm curious to see how various states define essential vs. non-essential. For example I work in manufacturing producing paper. So I don't know where I'd fall on that.
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Hydroxychloroquine, especially when combined with azithromycin. https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/old-malaria-drug-hydroxychloroquine-may-help-cure-coronavirus-study/ Hopefully, this is going to be the key. Eventually there will be a vaccine, but we can't afford to wait 14-18 months for that right now.
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I’d venture a guess that Japan being a literal island helps reduce transmission. Doesn't hurt, but that isn't helping the UK that much.
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Spain is really starting to have a problem. Not surprisingly, they have the second oldest elderly population in the world. The oldest, oddly, is Japan, who does not have a major COVID-19 crisis at this time.
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According to Worldometers, that number is 64. I find that really hard to believe though, that's barely 1 patient per state and the death rate is still rising while the critical number is rarely updated.
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I don't think it's a reach that other states will adopt this sooner, rather than later. I’ll be very surprised if WI isn’t in the same spot by early next week, with the entire country there by the end of next weekend. People should understand, before it does get here and misunderstanding gets out of hand, that this doesn't put everyone on total lockdown. You can still leave to get food, essentials, medical care, or to work or take a walk. Basically, the way everyone should be living already anyway.
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Well, the biggest factors are who is tested and who contracts it. As for testing, Italy told those who were mildly symptomatic to not come in and get tested. Their denominator is a fraction of what it should be. Germany may be testing everyone who is symptomatic. Then there's the question of who is contracting it. If the Germans who are contracting it are young and relatively healthy, then the mortality rate will be very low. Italy has a terrible health care system, especially primary care, and a lot of people got cross-contaminated within the healthcare system. Many of those people were already sick/poor health/other comorbidities, thus they were higher risk. If it goes around a nursing home, you have to expect a much higher mortality rate than if it goes around a college campus. Yeah, all true. This is why I wish people would look at context when there is a spike in cases. More positives in and of itself is not a bad thing. It means we're testing more people, finding them and isolating them. People should not use total cases to compare us to Italy. If we're finding more infected because we're getting better and more efficient at testing, that's a good thing. I'm more concerned with the deaths, if they start to spiral out of control then that's much more of a sign of the health care system getting overwhelmed.
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Italy has surpassed China in COVID-19 deaths. China had no new local cases yesterday.
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Sure I do, a World Series is still a World Series. Nobody gives an asterisk to the Redskins for winning Super Bowl 17 because it was a 9 game season. No one remembers that the first NBA title of the Spurs Duncan dynasty was a strike shortened season. Ultimately if the season is 60 games I'll be disappointed to have 102 less Brewer games than usual but winning the World Series would not mean less to me. You could even argue that this one will mean more from a national standpoint as the country will likely gain a new appreciation for professional sports and be looking for a team to rally behind.
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https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/politics/trump-fda-anti-viral-treatments-coronavirus/index.html
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Germany is a country I'm struggling to understand of how they are managing this so well. Their infection rate is well over 12K people, yet only 28 have died -- a tiny 0.2% mortality rate. What's different?
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Oh boy. Like I needed another excuse right now.
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I can't imagine that. Initially the guesses were like .1%. Sounds like they are going to be at least 10 times higher, if not 20 times higher. Now it's spreading in sub-Saharan African countries, so I would see world-wide mortality rates increasing. I think he's referring to 3-4% figures the WHO was throwing around at one time and I do think it will be a lot lower than that in the US. Yeah, that's what I was referring to. No, we aren't going to get down to the flu rate around .1% but I think .5 to 1% is likely. South Korea is a perfect illustration of what I'm talking about. By expanding their testing they're able to get a truer number of the infected. So they're a little less than 1%. If you're only able to test those who are already quite ill, of course you'll have higher percentages.
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How is everyone dealing with the psychological madness of being stuck at home all the time? Any good new bingeable shows? I've dusted off the old Wii and started playing Mario Kart with the kids again. Aside from that I try to get on the treadmill daily. The kids have got plenty of schooling activities to do online which includes some instruction for reading, journaling, and exercising. I think this would be a lot more bearable if there were sports to watch. It's great to have access these days to a library of any kind of show or movie you can imagine, but it's not the same as live sports. Watching reruns of the 2015 NIT just doesn't cut it. My hats off to the folks in the Navy who spend 6 months on a submarine removed from society, I don't know how you do it. I'm on day 3 (and I still leave when I absolutely have to), and I'm already ready to crack. Hopefully this doesn't turn me into an alcoholic.
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I should have been more clear as to why the affluent lifestyle leads to priority testing because of their numerous contacts, I do understand the prioritization of those and the symptomatic ones who have become seriously ill. Ideally we will hopefully see testing become as readily available in the near future as a flu test so we don't have to worry so much about prioritizing.
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You do realize that test shortages are one of the major issues in the US? That is why they are testing that way. Athletes come in contact with people every day and travel extensively. That is why famous people have been tested for it. Idris Elba was rubbing shoulders with the Trudeaus. There is a reason they would be a testing priority. I do think the mortality rate will end up lower than predicted at the start. But I also think it's funny that random people feel qualified to alter the policy widely recommended by people who have been studying this for decades. First off, as a "random person," I never once said I "felt qualified to alter" policy. I was giving an uneducated opinion, nothing more. I was relatively clear about that, several times. I wasn't saying that high class individuals have been given easier access to testing to bemoan them. Secondly, there is no policy for this. It's uncharted waters for most countries and is mostly a day to day thing. They don't know what next week will look like much less next month. Even the people who have been studying this for decades aren't all in agreement on what the best courses of action are.
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My personal opinion is that the mortality rate is going to be far, far less than originally anticipated. I understand that viewpoint is probably far too optimistic for some and I respect that. It's just my opinion. In this country, the only ones even getting tested are the ones who either are in a position of means and high class (NBA player, for example), or the ones who are severely ill, enough so to seek medical attention. In most areas, those who get mildly sick are simply being asked to stay home and self-care and self-quarantine. They are not being tested or counted. By most accounts, that is 80-90% of cases. So how are those accounted for when determining how lethal this is? I think the spread of this, being a novel virus that no one is immune too yet, is far more widespread than we see in current numbers. That's a good news/bad news thing. Very contagious, but much less lethal overall than earlier thought. Obviously that mortality rate is going to vary greatly based on the availability of proper medical care, as we are seeing in contrast in Italy and South Korea. Just my uneducated thoughts.
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Yeah I mean every day we hear okay, we're floating this idea, we're going to send Americans checks but we don't know the details yet, this is stalled in the Senate, etc etc. I'm not going to make this political, just saying they need to figure it the hell out like now. This is not the time for the typical sluggish bureaucratic process and anyone dragging this out should have their named dragged through the mud the next time voters go to the polls.
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Yeah I mean what's the other option? Let the virus run it's course? I get all that and I don't know what the other options are. The other option should have been to be better prepared for this, beginning with the healthcare industry so that we could have begun mass testing a month ago, quarantined just high risk groups and not gone to such drastic measures. Look what South Korea is doing. They got right on mass testing and quarantines and appear to have their COVID-19 problem nipped in the budd in a matter of a couple weeks. They were ready for this, we were not. A couple weeks of this would have been just a blip on the radar of history, not an economic catastrophe. I just can't imagine the economic damage to the country if this is the norm for 6 months, 8 months, whatever. It goes well beyond just people being poor but alive.
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I'm sure that any case serious enough to get before a doctor and nurse in most cases is going to be pretty ugly as they are only treating the most serious cases of the virus. As far as your question, ask me again in a few months when we are going to be able to better evaluate how many lives have been saved and how devastating of a toll that this took on our economy and how many jobs and well-beings have been lost and lives have been turned upside down, because it's going to be many, many more than just the ones who lost their lives to COVID-19. I'm sure we could save many lives if we reduce the national speed limit to 25 MPH, but it wouldn't come without major secondary consequences. The secondary consequences of essentially shutting down our economy will linger long after COVID-19 becomes an afterthought.