adambr2

I disagree. You don't give away stuff like that. He was sitting at an easy 97-98 in his stints with the big club. He brings a similar body type and pitch types to what Woodruff brings. I think if they are serious about putting Woodruff and Burnes in the rotation, Houser is one of the top candidates to fill the role of multi-inning reliever. The problem is, we only have so many spots and they really like their guys with flexibility. If you are going to go into 2019 with Houser, there is no sending him down to work on anything, you just have to live with the growing pains. It makes no sense to me if they intended on him being a part of the 2019 team, why he didn't at least get a long look in September.

Any idea what to expect from Houser in 2019? He seems like a guy that the Brewers liked in a flexible role where they could freely rotate him between MLB and AAA to save wear and tear on the pitching staff. Unfortunatelty, he is out of options so he most likely needs to either be traded or be on the 25. My inclination is to believe, partially based on the fact that he wasn't even called up in September, that Houser is not part of our future plans and will likely be traded in the offseason.

Yep. Keston will be lucky to see Milwaukee at all next year I think. He really tailed off in AA the last month. I wonder if the grind just got to him? Disagree, Keston I think is virtually certain to be a summer callup unless he really struggles. He is tearing up the Arizona Fall League right now. We could use his bat in the lineup sooner rather than later and I think it'll play up just fine at this level for his position. Woild you like to see video game numbers, of course, but you have to look at Southern League numbers differently than the PCL. I would heavily bet that he'll have better numbers in San Antonio next season than he did in Biloxi.

Yeah, said this on another thread but Moose seems to be pretty overrated here. Not a great hit tool, not fast, doesn't get on base much. Good power tool but certainly not off the charts. We took him because he was available, didn't add much to the payroll and we felt Phillips and Lopez were expendable. He was a luxury add. Unless someone wants to give us a king's ransom for Travis Shaw I'd leave it at that.

You do have to figure out how to balance an analytical approach with how you are going to manage the rigors of a 162 game season, yes. Things will happen and approaches will have to be flexible. It doesn't mean that a traditional 5 man rotation is the only way to do that, though.

He may not be as good as his 2017 but he is still a good player. $10 million good? Probably not but he can still be valuable 2015 - .279/.306/.482, 17 2Bs, 15 HRs 2016 - .267/.298/.454, 38 2Bs, 25 HRs 2017 - .293/.338/.503, 35 2Bs, 32 HRs 2018 - .233/.266/.416, 22 2Bs, 21 HRs A career OPS of .738 is pretty valuable in this league (for comparison Moustakas career OPS is .737) I think they tender him just for the fact that they gave up three players to get him. You can't just let him walk. Sure you can. I agreed with a lot of what you said until that last bit. What we gave up should not factor into the decision at all. That part is done. We gave up what we gave up and we can't control it now. What we should evaluate is the amount we would have to pay him against the production we expect to receive. Anything else is just noise, ego shouldn't control a move.

That would be my fear. Is pitching a guy like Corbin Burnes three innings every three days sustainable long term, or is that going to cause more wear and tear on an arm? There may be something that points to shorter starts being feasible, but I just simply think the Brewers played to their strength, which was a deep bullpen full of stud power pitchers. If they had those sort of horses in the starting rotation, we would have saw longer starts. My hope is that Burnes and Woodruff can be that type of starter that regularly goes 7 innings. We saw several times during the season where the pen was burned out, and I'd argue that Game 7 of the NLCS was there as well. I don't see any regular 7 inning starters in this rotation because again, I just don't think that fits our organizational philosophies. Almost everyone gets hit hard the 3rd time through the order and these guys will likely be no exception. The 7 inning starter is pretty much dead anyway, it's not just us. Chris Sale himself averaged less than 6 IP in 2018. I also don't really buy that the pen just got worn down. They were almost all, for the most part, phenomenal in the playoffs. They didn't look worn down at all, if anything they looked better than the regular season. Maybe Jeffress, but he still had flashes of good stuff and plenty of bad luck involved. You do bring up an interesting point on these guys though and I'm curious to know the answer, too. We know top end starters can go 200+ innings and top pen arms 80-90. So what is the likely annual workload for a guy throwing 2-4 innings every 3-4 days? Is 135-140 IP a year feasible in that role?

I never foresaw the day when Brewerfan.net would have a 4 page thread with the words "crotch grab " in the title.

Yeah I have to agree with Luke on this one. Markets, both trade and free agency, vary greatly from year to year based on numerous factors. Maybe Thames could net a single lottery ticket prospect, probably not more. I expect Thames to be back next year as well. Insurance for Aguilar and just not enough value to deal.

I agree with this and it was what I was getting at in my post last night. If Burnes/Wood/Peralta pan out they'll be treated like normal starters in today's world. I tend to be more in the 'traditional starter is dying in Milwaukee' crowd. These guys are really data driven and I don't think they want anyone going a 3rd time through the order if they can help it. I'm not sure how they are going to approach 2019 but I'd be surprised if they just put together a traditional 5 man rotation and 7-8 man pen and leave it at that.

I could see Dubon being a fairly substantial contributor next year. Between him and Perez they can play basically anywhere so we can afford luxury bats elsewhere on the bench. Dubon could be like our Ian Happ next year, probably not as much power but better contact and speed. He was really breaking out in 2018 prior to his injury. Granted you have to take the PCL with a grain of salt but he had a really good season with Boston in 2016 too prior to regressing some in '17 and rebounding in '18.

I don't see it. His BABIP was lower than 2017, so it's not like he was just getting lucky. The minor league stat line is a fair argument but players can change and evolve over time. As you said, you're just not a believer so we're not going to agree on it, but you would at least agree it isn't worth giving up Keston Hiura for what might just be a year of Goldschmidt, wouldn't you? Or Corbin Burnes. These guys are deal breakers even for Goldie, don't you think? Goldschmidt is bound to be a hot commodity if the Diamondbacks even do dangle him out there and I have major doubts that they will. If they do I'm guessing the prospect laden offers will win out. If he's not available I'm not sure what else is really out there that is pretty much a slam dunk guaranteed upgrade from Aguilar. And even though I like Aguilar more than you I do have doubts too, I just happen to not think the cost is worth it. The more I think about it I would probably keep Thames around as insurance, he still had a 106 OPS+ in a down year and should be due for positive regression. At the very least I think you'd get decent results from a Aguilar/Thames platoon. Between Braun, Santana, Thames and Aguilar I'd expect good years out of at least 2 which is enough.

My guess is none of the 3 are back and we have that 35M to work with. Would you really miss any of them that much? Soria - It's not outrageous at $10M but it's telling that Stearns has never paid that much for a reliever. I think he's concerned about the volatility of relievers from year to year, and rightfully so. He will go into this year with the guys he has, check out the reliever market on non-contending teams in late July, and then use the depth of the farm to rent a Soria type that he's not sure he is going to be able to keep anyway. That's been his model the last 2 seasons. Schoop - I get the temptation to see if he can rebound to 2017 form, but we can't afford to compound the mistake here. Just cut your losses and move on. When Eduardo Escobar types are going for $7M a year, Schoop at 10 is just not a worthwhile investment. I guess I could be sold on giving him another shot at $3-$5M after a non-tender, but I don't get the vibe that he has any interest in being here. Moustakas- I think we tend to overrate him. He's okay. He doesn't get on base well. He's not a good baserunner. He's a decent glove at 3rd, but he's certainly not the Orlando Arcia of 3rd basemen. He's got nice pop in his bat but doesn't really offer much else. There's nothing really about Moose that Travis Shaw doesn't do equally well or better for much less of a cost. I think we acquired him because we could easily afford the luxury in both dollars and trade capital. For $15M or a multi-year deal, I think our assets are best applied elsewhere.

Yeah Thames' option for 2020 is team, not player. So it's a 1 year commitment with flexibility for the team.

Why .800? He was .890 this year and .837 last year. It's not like he's at a declining age or anything. Yes it's probably unlikely for him to go back to his first half form. But I think he's more than likely a pretty good hitter who wore down in 2018 with daily playing time. If Yelich was a free agent after 2019 and we wanted to take a shot, I'd say go for it. But I think we have to look at this from a big picture perspective. Is Goldschmidt an upgrade for this year, certainly. But for what he'd cost in trade capital and then payroll cost if we kept him, no I don't think its worth it. I seriously doubt he would go for a 5/110 type extension anyway and then we'd be back to square one. Even if he did, I have some major concerns about a 5 year extension for a then 32 year old first baseman. I think if we could land Wilson Ramos and Jed Lowrie we'd be in pretty good shape with what we can upgrade offensively, and we'd get to keep our trade pieces.

3/21 is a lot cheaper than I thought Escobar would be. Either he really loves Arizona or players are just terrified to get anywhere near free agency.

Probably, but I think you're going to lose a lot of value limiting Hader especially to that limited of a role.

Either way I think you have to assume that 2019 is going to be rehabilitation year for Suter with no on field contributions.

I think they want shorter outings with less time between outings. As someone else said I am very excited to see what they come up with, but I don't think it'll be traditional. I could see a 6 man piggybacked rotation of 2 guys with different styles who go about 3 innings each and then get 2-3 days off before going again, with the traditional pen taking over after the 6th. Maybe that's too extreme. Maybe not.

Quite frankly, Braun is one of the most upgradeable spots on offense behind catcher and 2B, and probably just catcher after Hiura comes up. I don't include Arcia because he's not going anywhere, we'll live with what he gives on offense as long as we have his glove. I realize because of his contract and the fact that he wouldn't provide much value as a bench player, he isn't going anywhere. But if we're talking upgrades from the Diamondbacks, wouldn't David Peralta be an offensive upgrade? He'd be more controllable, and cost loss. Guess I just don't see why people assume Aguilar is a fluke, and think Braun just deserves a spot. Over the entire season, Aguilar was the better offensive player. No question. Why are people assuming Aguilar won't return to his 1st half form, but think Braun at age 35 is going to be fine? I don't really buy that Braun is just going to shorten the bat, change his approach, and get better. I don't see a lot of ego right now and think he buys into the team vision. If they felt that way, I think there's enough mutual respect where that conversation would have already taken place. I think age and decline has far more to do with it than ego. If Ryan is batting anywhere higher than #5 to start 2019, we didn't do nearly enough to improve the offense.

Yeah I mean I guess you can make a reasonable argument that anything else they would have done probably wouldn't have made much difference anyway since no one else was really doing a ton besides Arcia. But yeah going forward I'd be much more comfortable with Braun at #6 or so in more of a supportive offensive role; obviously that will depend on what we do in the offseason.

I feel like we say this every offseason and trade deadline. I'm not saying it will for sure not happen, but I think we've seen that Stearns has a completely different perspective on his pitching staff than outsiders, and we have a much better future pitching staff already in place now than we did at this time last year. There's not a TOR or solid #2 type that won't cost us Keston Hiura, and I think that would be a really bad move. I think people (not saying you) are looking at losing Game 7 and thinking "Oh crap. I guess we really do need to go get an ace." I don't think Stearns is looking at it that way. I think he looks at it and says, "We started this at 68 wins. We went from there to 73, to 86, to 96 and one win away from a World Series. What we are doing is working and we are going to keep on going this direction."

Agreed. Braun should never have been moved back to #3, he simply wasn't good there at all for whatever reaaon and when Counsell switched Braun and Aguilar back, it really backfired. Braun was far from being our biggest postseason problem but when your every day #3 hitter posts a .652 playoff OPS it's a pretty good recipe for a sluggish offense which is exactly what we witnessed. I get what Counsell was thinking -- not many others were doing a ton either and if it was a crapshoot anyway he wanted to roll the dice on the veteran. But at this point in his career you have to count on Braun as a role player, not a primary source of offense. Crazy as it may sound, going with Arcia at #2 and going Yelich-Aguilar-Shaw-Braun-Moose at 3-7 probably wouldn't have been a bad idea the last few games of the LCS.

Yes. Or we could just stick with our already pretty good 1st baseman who OPSed .929 off of LHP this season, and. 902 in 2017. Upgrading from that is not an easy thing to do especially when we're weak hitting LHP. IMO we're far too concerned with 1B next year. If we're talking about finding an upgrade from Aguilar at 1B, why aren't we talking about finding a corner OF upgrade from Braun and getting Yelich back into his position of strength, LF? I'd bet on Aguilar being the more productive hitter in 2019.

Think I'm with Briggs on Woodruff and Burnes. I could see Woodruff being a weapon out of the pen, possibly a RHP Hader type. I wouldn't pencil him into the rotation yet. Burnes projects much more as a starter. Peralta I could see going either way. And there is still the matter of how they want to work Nelson back in. Can't remember ever having this many high end pitching options.