About ten years ago I developed an unscientific matrix to estimate the number of points expected to score on a drive based on field position. Sunday's game had 35 kicks from scrimmage. Four plays were positive, seven were negative and the rest neutral. I'm listing the eleven plays that had an effect on the outcome. Punt coverage Should have been 1&10 @ 78 yds from goal; Expected points = 1.95 Actual 1&10 @ 56 yds from goal; Expected points = 3.21 Net loss 1.26 pts Kickoff return Should 1&10 @60, E(pts) = 2.59 Actual 1&10 @95, E(pts) = 1.38 Net loss 1.21 pts Kickoff coverage Should 1&10 @75, Actual 1&10 @59 Net loss 0.64 pts Kickoff coverage Should 1&10 @75, Actual 1&10 @60 Net loss 0.64 pts Punt coverage Should 1&10 @97, Actual @Goal Net loss 5.62 pts Kickoff coverage Should 1&10 @75, Actual 1&10 @58 Net loss 0.64 pts Kickoff coverage Should 1&10 @75, Actual 1&10 @92 Net gain 0.57 pts Punt return Should 1&10 @61, Actual 1&10 @48 Net gain 0.95 pts Kickoff coverage Should 1&10 @75, Actual 1&10 @87 Net gain 0.38 pts Punt return Should 1&10 @86, Actual 1&10 @71 Net gain 0.38 pts Kickoff coverage Should 1&10 @45, Actual 1&10 @-46 Net loss 9.01 pts Total net = negative-16.74 pts