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owbc

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Everything posted by owbc

  1. owbc
    The top of our order can slug with anyone. The bottom of the order is where we've decided to trade slugging for OBP and defense. That tradeoff is almost impossible to avoid. We can wish for more slugging all day but if we made moves purely to add slugging it would change the identity of the offense. My criticisms of the offense might better be considered criticisms of the individuals in it. Frelick, Ortiz, and the various mix of 3B options have contributed almost nothing to our slugging. This team is not bad at slugging, it is league average. They are not elite because they are being driven down by a few extremely weak positions.
  2. owbc
    The worst part about the Brewers is the game ending, then I switch over to the Mariners and want to poke my eyes out.
  3. owbc
    I had them at 100 wins in the bold predictions thread with a more realistic prediction of low-90s wins. They have clearly established themselves among a group of 4 elite teams in the 2026 MLB season with their +120 run differential. I think we need to appreciate that it is really, really hard for any team that wins 95+ games to repeat that performance a second year it a row. It takes a LOT to go right to win 95 and the fact that they have barely missed a beat in 2026 is truly phenomenal. Last year they had to make up some ground in summer and put together an incredible hot streak. This year they look more established and comfortable in front of the division which I think bodes well for October. The series against the Cubs that just concluded felt way more important for the Cubs than it did to us. Overall: - Above expectations Component wise: - Starting pitching: far above expectations - Relief pitching: below expectations - Offense: near expectations - Defense: slightly below expectations - Intangibles/vibes: near expectations Postseason expectations: make NLCS again and put up a better fight than 2025. They have better starting pitching this year so one would expect that a Miz/Harrison combo could win us a couple of LCS games. An aggressive trade deadline could draw them closer to the Dodgers, but as usual I suspect that some of the underperforming regular season performers on LAD will suddenly rediscover their abilities in late September.
  4. owbc
    In a typical 3-game MLB Wild Card Series, only about 14 to 17 players are used in high-leverage situations, while the remaining 9 to 12 players either do not play at all or only enter during low-leverage blowouts. In the longer Division Series (DS) and Championship Series (CS), the high leverage core expands slightly to 16 to 19 players, while the number of completed unused players drops significantly. Most of the additional usage is on the pitching side, with more starters and relievers needed to get through the longer series. More bench players might be deployed in favorable matchups.
  5. owbc
    Who are they? Need some names.
  6. owbc
    What exactly is the “something” that could/should be done? Your #8 hitter isn’t going to decide a playoff series but as the WBC showed, his glove definitely could.
  7. owbc
    Deadline trades are usually not about money, they are about how much prospect capital you are willing to pay. Unless we are willing to take on bad contracts, then we can trade for Mike Trout and finally get him a World Series appearance!
  8. owbc
    Part of me wanted Happ to catch the deflection just for kicks but then we wouldn’t have been gifted this shot.
  9. owbc
    That was an entertaining game with the referees letting the physical play happen. I loved it. It will serve everyone well to have expectations tempered down a bit. There are no guarantees in this tournament, as evidenced by many of the favorites getting challenged by highly-motivated underdogs. I agree that there is a pathway to the quarters and then you just hope they hold their own and maybe get a few bounces in their favor.
  10. owbc
    The Cubs will eventually stabilize their pitching situation, just in time for their streaky offense to slump again.
  11. owbc
    Could definitely be Chourio and I agree that the CBA would be the ticket if they incentivize it with something like a franchise tag or supermax.
  12. owbc
    I clearly haven't read enough fangraphs lately and am now getting into a sequencing rabbit hole... It seems like our ability to see more pitches is the big one that gets missed -- high BB rate overall and lower K rate especially with runners on base. Effective deployment of platoons is the other one, with Vaughn obviously being the current poster child for most effective platoon player in MLB.
  13. owbc
    That's really interesting. What's our secret? Baserunning?
  14. owbc
    Giannis saved the Bucks from being relocated. The Braves moved to Atlanta.
  15. owbc
    Me too. I don’t get the October comparisons. You don’t need your #7 starter and a bunch of low leverage relievers in October. This was a throwaway game that they won anyway and in hilarious fashion.
  16. owbc
    I don't know what we did to please the baseball gods but I hope we keep doing it. Kuhnel is out there sweating bullets and Murphy has already decided that he'd rather lose the game than burn another arm or go to extras. Reds fans must hate us. We are the new Cardinals except without the self righteousness.
  17. owbc
    Really interesting article. It certainly paints Counsell in a more favorable light than Stearns. The Counsell comments about team identity are interesting. The Brewers have an extremely strong and coherent identity and they also have strong buy in from the fanbase It has taken the better part of 10 years for us to achieve that.
  18. owbc
    The change to GitHub Copilot pricing on June 1 was the biggie. The cheap Uber rides are over and we’re hooked. The demand for cheap, cutting edge AI is insatiable but how long does it take to get there if it is even possible?
  19. owbc
    Maybe we all win then if he stays with Detroit. For LA it's really just a matter of waiting 6 months until they can write him a check.
  20. owbc
    Market seems to be thinking about another correction again. Interest rate forecast combined with AI spending jitters. I don't think the oil problem is over yet but at current prices it's not that big of a deal except for how it affects the interest rate outlook. There is still quite of SPR capacity available to draw down.
  21. owbc
    Strongly agree with this take. Half the argument for us trading for him in the first place is to keep him away from the Dodgers.
  22. owbc
    Chourio, Turang, Contreras in that order.
  23. owbc
    It's a true godsend that they won a championship so we don't have to look back in shame on the Giannis era. In the long run I think the glass half full view will win out because a ring is a ring and there is a parallel universe where Durant's toe was behind the line and Giannis sees the writing on the wall and peaces out a few years earlier. The glass half empty view is that even with mediocre management and better injury luck we should have been in the finals 3-4 times and won at least two championships. With great management and great injury luck we could have been a dynasty.
  24. owbc
    I thought this trade was going to suck? We got the entire Heat roster and a ton of picks.
  25. owbc
    MLB run differential leaders: LAD: +133 MIL: +119 NYY: +112 ATL: +97 The other 6 teams with positive run differentials combined: +84
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