owbc
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Everything posted by owbc
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Welcome to the forum! Great first post. It's not surprising that Rhys is rusty, but I agree, he's unlikely to magically figure it out in high leverage postseason ABs.
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That is correct, the televised box will not be allowed next year for exactly that reason.
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I remember after the first inning my dad turned to me and was like "there's no way we can keep up this energy for the whole game". We did settle in for the middle innings but got amped again at the end. And I'll never forget the extremely loud "Let's go Brewers" chants in the concourses after. That was something you can only experience once I think, you can't recreate the 'first playoff game in 25 years' energy level. I flew in from Seattle for 2018 NLCS games 6-7. That first inning outburst in game 6 was the most jacked up I have ever been at a Brewers game. I think the raw crowd energy was better in 2008 though. Had game 7 been close in the late innings it would have surely topped everything but it got ripped away a little too soon for that crowd to really taste it. I wasn't there but I feel like the 2011 Nyjer Morgan walkoff and last year's back-to-back HR in WC game 3 are likely up there are well.
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There seems to be no info about Monday???
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Has a Brewers game ever started at 8 PM before??? That crowd is going to be liquored up.
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The Cubs would be playing with house money in that series. The Brewers are in danger of this entire era being tainted by quick playoff exits. If we end up winning I guess it would be exciting in retrospect.
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The moral of the story so far is that one run isn't going to win you many games.
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That's a game that the Guardians would have won in the regular season, but those were not pretty ABs with just needing to get the runner on third in. Ironic that Detroit beat them with a sac bunt.
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Recent Brewers teams have been really good at coming up with painful postseason eliminations. I can't imagine a scenario involving the Padres that would be more painful than Counsell getting the last laugh this season.
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Tigers and Guardians trying to out-small ball each other. Skubal at 85 pitches in the 7th.
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They really need to do away with these weekday 1 PM wild card games, I don't care what the implications are for TV. There are thousands of empty seats in Cleveland and it's not because of lack of interest in the team, it's because they had less than 48 hours to sell tickets to a playoff game in the middle of the day on a Tuesday. (I say this as I watch the game and contribute to the problem by boosting the ratings)
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I don't know that I could handle a Brewers/Cubs playoff series. I don't even know that I could watch the games. Just too stressful. Hearing 1/4 of the crowd cheering when bad things happen to us in a playoff game at home, especially when I'm still not over Alonso knocking us out? Can't take it. I hope the Padres knock them out.
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The Brewers are surely going to get the earliest timeslot -- noon central.
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I think some of it comes down to how they seed. The 3 seed is the weakest division winner so the 3/6 is often closer than the seeding would suggest. 4/5 should be a tossup though. But for whatever reason teams seem to have trouble at home when the playoffs start. The Brewers looked terrible in WC game 1 last year.
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Will road teams continue having success (8-4 in the 3-game series era)? It feels like the home team should start doing better, but only 1 of the 4 series falls under the definition of "lopsided". I still don't see the home teams doing any better than 2-2 this year though, but with any luck we'll at least get a couple of game 3s. Det/Cle -- I'm taking Detroit in 3 here in a bit of an upset, but if they win Skubal's start in game 1 I think they can take the series. Bos/NY -- lots of Stanton and Judge bombs incoming. Yankees win 2-0. Cin/LA -- LA 2-0. I know the Reds are a bit of a trendy pick because of their front-loaded rotation, but the Dodgers are playing well right now and will take care of business. SD/CHC -- Padres in 3. We know this Padres group has a track record of winning short postseason series so I think they overcome one dramatic Cubs win and pull it out. I agree that the Cubs are the preferred matchup for us on paper though.
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My hope is that he gets some assistants around him that can coach, similar to what he had in Cincinnati. It seems like that has been recognized and possibly rectified...I like to think that this season is at the low point now and will get better. We'll see. I don't buy some of the other arguments in this thread. You rarely get hired as a coach in a good situation. Either you're replacing some legend who retired (impossible shoes to fill) or you're coming into some problematic situation that caused your predecessor to get fired. You do need the support of the program, the AD, the facilities, the NIL money, the fans, etc. Does Wisconsin support its football team to the level needed to be in the upper quartile of the Big Ten? Surely it does.
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J.T. Realmuto (1133 innings) is 31 innings ahead of Conteras who is 39 innings ahead of Raleigh.
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I was at the Mariners game last night hoping to see 61, but after Raleigh had a 370 ft flyout on the first pitch he saw, the Rockies didn't give him anything else to hit the rest of the game and issued an IBB which really irritated the crowd. I love the fan/media interest in a close MVP race, local media on both sides are putting out articles with whatever stats they can find to support their preferred candidate. There are a number of catching stats that make Raleigh look really good. Fun fact though -- Cal Raleigh is 3rd in MLB in innings caught, William Contreras is 2nd!
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The belief in the Mariners fan/media sphere has been that it's similar to the Judge vs. Ohtani race in 2022 where Ohtani deserved to win based on overall stats alone but Judge got the nod for the milestone HR. So many believe, as you said, that hitting the 60 milestone would break the tie in favor of Raleigh. To me it's a no brainer -- there's a reason no catcher had ever hit 50 home runs before, it's ridiculously hard to be an effective hitter with the extra mental and physical constraints of playing catcher. Then you throw in the added part about hitting 59 and 60 on a night when your team wins its first division title in 24 years??? Yankees fans can shove it as far as I'm concerned. Side note -- he's facing the Rockies' terrible pitching staff again tonight and word is that the Mariners are going to keep playing their starters as long as the #1 seed is in play. If he gets to 62 or 63 and the Mariners pass the Yankees I don't see how you can vote for Judge. Side note 2 -- at least on paper the Dodgers have Kershaw scheduled to start Sunday. Imagine that storyline if the AL HR record is in play...
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In the minors the success rate is: Catchers: 56% Batters: 50% Pitchers: 41% I'm guessing most teams will ban pitchers from challenging and batters will be instructed to only challenge obvious misses. Framing will still be important because close calls are unlikely to get challenged except in high leverage situations. Challenge success rate also needs to be factored into catcher value somehow. A catcher with a >75% challenge success rate could add a ton of value.
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Bielema's ceiling is a good but not great team.
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It would be interesting to derive a “fan comfort index” stat for this scenario. Basically “What is the probability that playoff odds will remain above 90 or 95 percent for the duration of the season?” Then you could say “we have 99 percent playoff odds overall, but there is a 15% chance of dropping below 95 at some point” or something like that.
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The Tigers still have 85% playoff odds and 63% odds of winning the division. Nobody knows how long their cold streak is going to last. It might end tomorrow. The 99.9% playoff odds are still more likely to be correct than not. Low probability events do happen quite often given how many teams and games there are. I do wonder if streaky teams are more common in September though. It seems like the pressure sometimes sinks a struggling team.
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The craziest stat is that in 4 days the Mariners went from 2nd place to the biggest divisional lead in the AL. It's going to be a fun week in Seattle. Houston had way too many injuries and it's honestly a miracle they made it this far. Houston does have an easy-ish schedule (playing the A's in Sacramento isn't easy) but the Mariners have the Rockies at home this week and only need to go 3-3 to finish it out. Detroit's collapse is really something. A 12 1/2 game division lead in the last week of August should be insurmountable. I bet they still find a way to get in with Skubal going twice in the final week -- a Cleveland/Detroit wild card series would be fun. And then in the NL you have the Mets' collapse, which would be a much bigger story if it wasn't being overshadowed by Detroit. I'm pulling for the Reds but it would also be funny to see the D'backs sneak in despite being hard sellers at the deadline.
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I’m sure the “Fire Fickell” chant will be great for recruiting this year. I feel bad for the guy, I thought it was a great hire as well but it clearly failed. He’s a lame duck now, 2+ years is an eternity in college football without results. There’s no easy way out of this either, Nebraska has been in this situation for the last 15 years. I would take the L and move on as fast as possible while Wisconsin is still an attractive job.
