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owbc

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Everything posted by owbc

  1. owbc
    Gross has done a good job making the highlight reels this year, but his .234 average wouldn't cut it for us. He'd be in Nashville right now. Does anybody think the Cubs will lose this game? I know their win probability is 21%, but I fully expect them to tie/win the game here.
  2. owbc
    Although Bill Hall's numbers are Bill Hall's fault, the Brewers have done absolutely nothing to help him in the past few years with the position switches and now a platoon with Craig Counsell. I have no doubt that Billy would start hitting again if he played every day for a week.
  3. owbc
    I'm not ready to give up on Weeks. Unless he has a terrible September, I would like to see him starting again next year. However, Hardy should be getting some reps at 2B in Spring Training. If Weeks bombs April like he did this year, then you move Hardy to 2B and call up Escobar. He's too good of a talent to give up on just yet.
  4. owbc
    I'm not that concerned with Sheets' lack of performance. Unlike CC, we actually have a chance at resigning Sheets. If he lowers his value to $70-80 million, the Brewers should definitely get it done. Sheets might not be a Cy Young winner like Sabathia, but he would be the best pitcher on 2/3 of the teams in MLB.
  5. owbc
    Ouch--back to even. I'm still not worried, I expect we will score again this inning.
  6. owbc
    Way to go Cam (and nice job stopping at 2nd!)
  7. owbc
    That one was too hot for Berkman to handle.
  8. owbc
    I don't see what the big deal with 130 pitches is. He's going to get 5-6 days rest in his next few starts. Our bullpen has been shaky. He doesn't work that hard considering the # of pitches. Yost clearly asked him in the dugout if he could pitch another inning and he agreed. I just wish people would calm down and actually enjoy it when we win.
  9. owbc
    The marketing has improved significantly, but it helps when demand is through the roof. If the Brewers are in last place, showering people with bobbleheads is about the only way to get sellouts.
  10. owbc
    Latest forecast now only gives Fay a 30% chance of becoming a hurricane.
  11. owbc
    On paper it seems like the wrong decision. However, I think it was the right decision, even though it lowered the win probability. 1. The win probability was only lowered 5% by letting in a run for free, which really isn't that much for the 9th inning, where it can sway dramatically. 2. Win probability is based on history, that's it. It doesn't take into account who is pitching, who is batting, which ballpark they are playing in, which runners are on base, etc. Taking that into cousideration, here's an argument on why Maddon was right: Hamilton isn't exactly known for his speed. He has 7 SB this year, so the odds of him making it all the way home on a Byrd double are fairly slim, especially since I assume the outfield was guarding against that. Thus, only a Byrd HR or triple would tie the game, and maybe a double 25% of the time. Byrd has 8 HR, 2 triples, and 19 doubles--not exactly big slugging numbers. Hamilton has 28 HR. Thus, Hamilton was much more likely to tie the game than Byrd, especially if you consider that Hamilton has hit 17 of his home runs at home. Although it is impossible to accurately measure the actual win probability, I suspect that if this scenario was played out 100 times either way, the Rays would win slightly more often by walking Hamilton.
  12. owbc
    I'm just curious, why do you think that Hall is worse than Weeks? I can't find any batting statistic except OBP where Weeks has the advantage over their careers.
  13. owbc
    We haven't had any weather threads for awhile--I think that is probably a good thing. Let me first correct the title--Fay is a weak tropical storm and not a hurricane. It might be a hurricane in the future which is what all the fuss is about. Fay is finally looking better organized this evening, but it is encountering wind shear and dry air, which are limiting the thunderstorms to the east side of the storm. It will remain a TS when it hits Cuba and will weaken tomorrow. However, the latest forecast tracks are concerning, because they have shifted farther to the west. If the storm goes farther west, it will traverse more warm ocean waters on its way to Florida, which could make the difference between a strong TS/weak 1 landfall vs. a Cat. 2 landfall. Since force increases exponentially with increased wind speed, once you start getting into the Cat 2/3 range, Fay could cause significantly more damage if it hits the Florida panhandle compared with West-Central Florida. IMO, it will make landfall as a Cat. 1 and not cause significant damage. In fact, the storm could also be a blessing, as a track over the southeast US could erase the ongoing drought. The most interesting thing is to see the difference in media coverage between this potential landfall and Dolly. The retirement communities in Florida are worth much more media time than South Texas, I guess. Fay info Satellite
  14. owbc
    I'm glad he decided to leave the rotation as is. Based on the last month, Sheets would be our #4 and Parra #5, but of course that could quickly change. It just isn't worth messing with things when Suppan could turn out to be our best pitcher down the stretch. The only thing that really matters is that CC gets to face the Cubs both times.
  15. owbc
    I agree that we can write off the Rockies. The Astros are an interesting case. They would only be 2 games back in the NL West and are playing great ball, but they are stuck in 4th in the NL Central and are essentially done, with only a .4% chance at the Wildcard.
  16. owbc
    It's 2008, I guess people are used to it by now. I'm just glad that pop-up ads on the internet have been largely eliminated. I couldn't stand those! The Brewers have actually done a great job of not letting advertising bother people. It's not just a random display of ads on the outfield wall, all of the new promotions are somehow related to baseball--The "C-IT-GO" home runs, the Motorola phones describing great Brewers plays, the "Powerball" home run counts, etc. The sponsorships are making the Brewers millions of dollars and it's simply unavoidable. I'm just glad MLB has enough integrity to keep the advertisements off the field. The Brewers' uniforms could easily have a big "Miller Lite" logo, while the players run around a field covered in painted advertisements like the ones under the ice on hockey rinks.
  17. owbc
    Awesome, Whitnall Falcons! My dad is a Whitnall alum but he sent me to Marquette High even though we live in the district.
  18. owbc
    I never used to think he gained weight either, until I saw a replay of his first ML home run from 2006. I didn't even recognize him. Baggy jersey or not, he's gained significant weight. It was so shocking that I can't rule out 50 lbs, although I'm guessing it's more like 30 in the last 2 years.
  19. owbc
    I highly doubt Parra is wearing down. If CC loses his next start, there will probably be comments discussing his "overuse" as well.
  20. owbc
    The answer to that question is the holy grail of the Ned Yost debate and from what I've seen, people have strong opinions for both sides. In my opinion, the Cubs are better than us. The only categories where we come close are starting pitching and slugging. It's quite a strange combination if you think about it. The Cubs are statistically the class of the NL by far and yet they can't shake off a team that smacks lots of HRs and doubles with a group of starting pitchers that go deep into games. It's worked so far, but who knows if it will continue.
  21. owbc
    Where were Counsell and Shouse???
  22. owbc
    I didn't think it was anything too surprising. I agree that the Brewers' offense tends to be overrated, especially with no Ryan Braun, and that the pitching is carrying the team. Still, our 162-game schedule is no easier than any other team in the National League--and in addition to that, we finished the difficult part of it a long time ago. We drew a string of easy teams and we took advantage of that for an 8-game winning streak. That says nothing about the 62 wins that we had before that. Press for the Brewers has been overwhelmingly positive. Getting humiliated by the Cubs at 'Wrigley North' is going to leave some doubt about our ability to advance in the playoffs until the Crew proves otherwise.
  23. owbc
    Best pitching matchup of the series. I like Sheets' chances as a fly ball pitcher in Petco. Make it 9, guys!!!
  24. owbc
    In addition to this, in the 9th inning, the game shouldn't end until the team with the lead has cleared all the opponent's runners off the bases, no matter how many outs it takes Here's some other suggestions: 1. Let managers bring 1 player back into the game who was already taken out. 2. For all fly balls, if the runner makes it to 2nd base before the ball is caught, he is safe and the play is scored a double. Runners can also attempt to advance 2 bases on any fly ball, as long as they make it before it is caught. This would help reintroduce the element of speed into the game, as only the fastest players would have a chance at making it. 3. Pinch hitters can be inserted in the lineup without having to replace any players. For example, if the bases were loaded with 2 outs and Sheets was due up, Ned could pinch hit Durham in the '8 1/2' position and Sheets would still be on deck. After the at-bat, Durham would be out of the game and the lineup would return to normal. 4. Have a deck of cards before the game with strange scoring situations such as "two strikes and you're out", "all home runs count as double runs", "all runners advancing to 3rd base are automatically awarded home", "runners have to run around the bases backwards (home to 3rd to 2nd to 1st)", or any of the other wacky rules proposed here. The visiting team must draw one card before every game and the rule change applies for that game.
  25. owbc
    Playoffs is the goal first. Once we check that off the list, then we can worry about the World Series. If we make the playoffs, we will likely have the better record than our opponent, even if we are the WC.
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