owbc
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Everything posted by owbc
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Labor Discussion - Salary Cap, Local TV Sharing
owbc replied to Austin Tatious's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Right, so to me the question becomes how long the middle market fans put up with the current situation. We’ve seen this in the NL Central — the Brewers are better run than the Cubs/Cardinals, so as the spending gap has shrunk, we’ve found our way to the top. I get the impression that those fans are not going to tolerate the status quo, which is likely that the Brewers continue to rack up division titles, with no ability for the mid-markets able to spend their way ahead of us because 5 teams are hogging all of the good free agents and leaving scraps for everyone else. I guess we’ll see though. -
This news seems especially bad for Nvidia and OpenAI but the average Joe should benefit from cheaper, open source AI. America should probably accept that we’re not going to be the gatekeepers of AI and more broadly that our science and R&D is rapidly falling behind China.
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Right, nobody knows what they will follow through on and to what scale. But overall the policies and current events will lead to upward price pressures in my opinion. There certainly doesn’t appear to be much if any effort to lower prices.
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Labor Discussion - Salary Cap, Local TV Sharing
owbc replied to Austin Tatious's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The current situation is of great benefit to the Brewers. The mid-markets are feeling the declining TV revenue the worst, especially the ones that own or have majority stakes in their network — because they are directly losing revenue vs. being locked into a contract where a third party is losing money or going bankrupt. The Brewers have closed the payroll gap with many of those teams. Mid-market fans are fed up. They could play with the big boys during the luxury tax + RSN era and now those days are over and it’s back to a handful of teams that have a huge revenue advantage. I think the rule changes and expanded playoffs delayed things a bit but if revenue and salaries decline then there will be pressure from both sides for change at the next CBA. Keep an eye on attendance and TV ratings in markets like Minnesota, Seattle, St. Louis, and Baltimore. I think there will be appetite for change soon like there was when the Yankees dominated in the aughts, it’s just a matter of how far the pendulum swings before both sides have motivation to change the rules. -
30% of our lumber comes from Canada which will be 25% more expensive on Feb 1 if the tariffs go through. So that’s a third of the CPI that is potentially affected, but it would probably take a year or two for that to start affecting inflation. Food prices are in trouble because of bird flu. Maybe we’ll change the policy to stop culling infected animals? That will surely end well. Medical services are going to increase due to the ending of various price caps that were put in place by the previous administration. If new cars go up and people shift to used cars, that causes used car prices to increase. Again, likely 1-2 years for that to start filtering through the market. Not to mention that the fed will be watching this and will be more likely to raise rates as a result. Unless Trump finds a way to intervene there and force lower rates…then we’ll have bigger problems on our hands.
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Yes and the impact is far from instantaneous, the changes reverberate through the marketplace. Right now what is being proposed is blanket tariffs on everything from Canada and Mexico. Whether they go through with it or not is anyone’s guess. In other news, the S&P 500 had a good week. Early signs are that big tech is going to benefit tremendously from this administration.
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Inflation is clearly sticky for a number of reasons and the economic agenda for the next administration is to remove the debt ceiling and extend tax cuts. Unclear if Congress will allow it but that’s the goal. The fed wants 2% inflation, so to me the odds favor rate increases in 2026 unless a recession is triggered. Your suggestion that fighting trade wars, deportation, and climate-related pressures won’t cause inflationary pressures is wishful thinking. The question is again, how much is talk and how much will actually become policy?
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My mind went back to my childhood and going over to my grandpa’s house and often he’d be in his garage and Ueck would be on the radio. My grandpa would always say “How about them Brewers?” And we would be like “They suck!” Even though we couldn’t get Ueck a title, he went out with the franchise riding an all-time high of success. And we can still win one for Ueck in 2025.
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Speaking of the Padres, it sounds like the flight for control after Seidler’s death has gotten ugly. Only a matter of time until the payroll dump happens…
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If my employer lowballed me and I had 29 other companies who were interested in my services, I’d be gone the next day. My actual performance is irrelevant in that equation.
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That’s an incredible way to experience your first hockey game. For what it’s worth, most hardcore hockey fans would say that sitting on the glass is something to do once. When you sit a bit higher it’s easier to see plays develop and you can keep track of play on both sides of the ice. If you sit higher I think you’ll also find more people paying attention to the game, since the first few rows are more of novelty seats.
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Brewers Open To Trading First Baseman Rhys Hoskins
owbc replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Seattle apparently offered Carlos Santana more money than Cleveland, so they appear interested in spending at 1B. They will probably try to re-sign Justin Turner next. If that doesn't work out, I could see some potential interest in Hoskins. Dipoto likes to unload dead contracts, which would make him potentially interested in clearing Haniger's money and opening up that roster spot. Locklear looked overmatched by MLB pitching in 2024, but he's young and likely projects for a Rowdy Tellez-like career. He's currently considered the 10th ranked prospect in Seattle's system. Personally I think Seattle would prefer to send more cash back and/or a lower ranked player than Locklear. In which case I think the Brewers would rather just eat the Hoskins contract since they need to get a 1B back and Haniger is entirely dead money, he would never actually play for the Brewers. -
Brewers Open To Trading First Baseman Rhys Hoskins
owbc replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I think Hoskins’ upside is likely more than whatever return we would get to unload his contract. But if we can find a sucker to pay most of the contract then I’m all for it. -
Didn’t watch but checked the halftime score and saw it was going as expected. Hopefully Ohio State meets the same fate tomorrow.
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They need to ditch the neutral site if they want to make the tournament matter more. It could have been fun to host that at home.
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Are we too worried about losing Willy's power?
owbc replied to Playing Catch's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
This and the other linked fangraphs article don't even take into account the value of stolen bases, which have gotten much easier since these pieces were written. I think the Brewers' strategy is pretty obvious -- above all they want top tier defense in the key positions -- SS, 2B, CF. Since you're not going to find many undervalued elite defenders with high slugging percentages, they are chasing high OBP speed guys who can play defense at an elite level. So Caleb Durbin. My personal opinion is that you can get away with the above but this is basically a formula to have an elite offense with a 15th-ranked slugging pct. If you're bottom-10 in slugging you're not going to be good no matter how many times to get on base and steal second. So they need to get slugging from corner positions. -
Tucker is absolutely a 1 year rental, but you’re getting the full year over a deadline acquisition and he is as big of a piece as you can add.
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The Mariners fan half of me is glad to have him out of the AL West. The Brewers fan half of me knows that he's going to do something to hurt us.
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Of course not. And the numbers surely say that his future postseason performances will regress toward his career means. But putting analytics aside and knowing Devin's track record, would you bet on that happening? In a Yankees uniform? In that media market? On the flip side, as a degenerate fan of the Brewers, I don't know if I can handle another blown save in a postseason elimination game and that surely clouds my thinking on the matter.
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Half of me sees Williams as a perfect fit for the Yankees following in the footsteps of Rivera with one historically good pitch. The other half of me thinks his personality and the big media market are going to clash. I like the move for us, I was ready to thank Devin for his service and move on, regardless of the economics.
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I bet many of the owners are having second thoughts about allowing Cohen buy a team, that's for sure. You're not supposed to care more about winning than profits.
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Willy Adames goes to San Fran 7 years, $182 million
owbc replied to Jastro's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think it's fair to ask what this spending spree is going to do for the Giants in terms of World Series odds or even playoff appearances. Assuming they sign Burnes or another high profile FA as well. In this new top-heavy era, we've got like 3-4 teams playing with monopoly money, but that leaves the #5-15 payroll teams in a weird spot where they are spending pretty heavily in free agency to keep up, while, in many cases, suffering a loss of local TV revenue. We could be in a situation where the Giants spend nearly half a billion dollars on two of our former players and I still might not want to swap their roster for ours. -
I see why we were interested because 3 years of a cheap impact arm (assuming no further injuries) is worth a ton. But for that prospect haul I'm fine letting him get away. About time the White Sox got serious about rebuilding.
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I don't know what it's like in Milwaukee these days but in Seattle the weekend MLB games are absolutely overrun with families and children. I bet the demographic numbers would show that attendance is skewing younger while TV viewership is skewing older. Anyway...I think the underlying issue at hand here is that everyone knows that modern pitching is absolutely overwhelming the bottom quartile of batters, so pretty much every team is putting guys with .170 batting averages into the lineup. You often have the scenario where late in the game you have the 7-8-9 hitters coming up against a 102 mph fireballer and more often than not they get mowed down and can barely make contact. Ten years from now there will probably be 3x as many guys that can throw 102 mph and the middle infielders will still largely have the same physical build that is optimized for defensive run prevention. So, what do you do about it? The golden batter is just one of several dozen possible rule changes. There are plenty of softer ways to loosen the rules around pinch hitting that wouldn't be as extreme as a golden batter.
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Overall I think baseball is more exciting than cricket, but cricket does have the advantage of letting you see the best batters hit for a longer period of time. Maybe you just let Aaron Judge keep batting until you get him out?
