Fatter than Joey

But FTJ, there's one big factor you aren't taking into account -- the uncertainty of managers' contributions. Well -- I am 100% certain that managers have either a positive or negative contribution. I am not certain that you could accurately extract and evaluate that contribution effectively -- but I suspect this is one of those times you embrace the marriage of scouting and statistical analysis. I guess what I wanted to address and add some perspective to, is the false idea that managers' contributions are trivial. That is to say -- if we can agree/assume that managers affect "only" 2-3 games a year, that in fact is a "big difference". It seems to me that a lot of the "pro-Yost" camp will concede that a manager will affect 2-3 games a year, but that is nothing to get concerned about -- I just tried to illustrate a little depth to what a 3 game swing means in terms of positional players. To me, the idea that managers have no effect on a game's outcome obscenely defies common sense. I will be the first to admit that there are no reliable metrics to measure managers, but that doesn't mean that the effect should be ignored. I would certainly agree that changing managers is a bit of a gamble unless you tie up a proven commodity.

For about four days now... "More Than a Feeling" by Boston. I'm OK with that though. I take "I'm OK with that though" to mean, that you took a belt sander to your ears. This is the one I heard on the radio the other day, and I am about ready to take a melonballer to my eye-sockets. I was going to post the original video, but that would have been an unspeakable evil, and folks, that is not how I roll, so I found a version I remember seeing as a kid. EDIT: -- When I finally lose it, and I am gunned down in a tower in my clown-suit with my sniper rifle, I fully expect the police report to read "That song by Chilliwack was playing on his IPOD on continuous repeat."

A manager does not make that big a difference in the long run. This is simply not true. Ennder astutely points out: The manager probably gives a swing of about plus or minus 3 games overall. Going from a LaRussa to a Yost might see a swing of 5 or 6 games overall. Going from a bad manager to a good manager can swing 6 games. If I illustrate these 6 games to give it some depth: Using Pete Palmer's "Batting wins" metric -- 6 games would be like upgrading a league average 1b like Mike Jacobs (2006) to the NL MVP Ryan Howard (2006). That to me is a "Big Difference" A couple of points/conclusions. 1.) A more accurate way to think about upgrading a manager is that it would be the equivalent of upgrading any one of your position players from average to AS/MVP level. 2.) $$$$$ -- When you upgrade a position like 1b from average to AS -- that is going to cost you big bucks. The manager position is your cheapest place to get wins. This means a team like Milw. rather than dumping $15M/year on the FA market could make a similar impact upgrading their manager for a tenth of that. 3.) If you are the worst team in MLB, getting a new manager and keeping the same players is not going to get you to the playoffs, however, neither will Ryan Howard. 4.) This metric/estimate of 3 games, really only speaks to in-game "micro-effects" -- There are "macro-effects" that can cost a team games as well, for example, burning up pitcher's arms, or burying a rookie on a bench and not letting them develop in deference to a crappy veteran. Brewer fans are intimately familiar with this concept, as it is linked to Bando when ever his name is taken in vain.

You do not lose as much offensively with this substitution and 2b has more plays to make than 3rd. Yep -- Weeks has looked particularly bad these last couple of games, both with his glove and throws. I agree with your post.

Fielder is in the AL for his first big contract in my opinion I agree -- and I think probably would be the best for both parties. Fielder plays 1b like a future DH -- that isn't to say he can't get better, but I just don't see it happening. I think the first opportunity he gets, he is going to NY, BOS or ANA. As far as Braun, I hope they could keep him -- a lot will depend on his defense as well.

I would think Utley is barely qualified with all the games he missed.

So what were the expectations at the start of the year? Ours don't matter -- plus there were roster moves that are going to change those expectations. We added Gallardo, Braun, Linebrink with the idea of raising our win total, the expectation should correspondingly change as well. It's really not about the W/L, it is more about the play. I don't think fans are encouraged by the blown leads and embarrassing defense.

That hot start probably saved his job, because it has held the team's overall record near .500 all season long. Yes -- and also the Cubs frigid start. If Yost would have went 9-21 and the Cubs would have played better, we would be managed by someone different right now. I don't think ANY fan thought that the 24-10 pace was sustainable, and that the Brewers would win 110+ games over the year, I think that they didn't think we would play .410+ ball for a large part of the second half.

But I think that it would be extraordinarily difficult -- in a political sense -- to fire a manager who had led his franchise to its first playoff berth in a quarter-century, even if the team hadn't quite met W/L expectations. I hear you. I think it makes it harder that Ned is DM's hire. It's not as if Ned is really popular right now -- He is even getting scorched by national columnists. There may be some wisdom to firing Ned now, rather than waiting until the end of the season.

I wondered why he was used last night -- I sort of thought he was supposed to be a LOOGY and not a mop-up guy. He gets hit pretty hard by RHers. Ray King is a known commodity -- maybe he needed to get one under his belt or something, but I would have rather seen Aquino/McClung/Stetters out there with a 10+ run lead and save King for Griffey and Dunn this weekend. -- I am sure he will be ready to go on Friday, but I hope this mop-up duty is a one time thing.

So I'm willing to resign myself to Ned if the team can get, say, 85 wins (or whatever suffices) to win the Central. I really do not like arbitrary win totals. If DM thinks he has put together a team that should have won 90 games, and they win less than that -- Ned should be canned. The bottom line being whether Ned got as many wins as he should of. I know this is sort of a small distinction, but if DM thinks that they could have won more games, then Ned should be fired whether that magic number is under .500 or not. It is my opinion that if we have a 70 win talent team, Ned is going to get 63 wins out of them, if we have a 100 win team, Ned will get 93 wins.

No, I don't want to see guys shouting and acting like idiots on the field, but I don't think a two second stare at a long ball should be enough to offend a pitcher making hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars a year. As Good as Braun is, he is still going to be gotten out almost 2/3rds of the time. If pitchers started to pump their fists and stare into dugouts everytime they got a player out, the game would be unbearable to watch. Braun needs to work on his fielding before he gets really cocky.

Gool was the safe place where you couldn't get tagged. Yeah -- I certainly remember this. In fact my brother and I more often would refer to the clothesline as "Gool" in non-tag competition. My mom yelled at me a lot for saying "gool" when she thought it was supposed to be "goal". If wikipedia had been around in the 70s I probably would have got yelled at a lot less.

To answer the thread's question "Is JE part of the problem" -- If you define "the problem" as "2nd half WOAHS", Estrada certainly has been part of the problem. Since the AS break -- JE has been the worst catcher in the NL (.570 OPS) -- compounding things is that Miller has been even worse. The Brewers since the AS break have the worst catching in the NL. Generally with a C, you can tolerate an extended slump if their defense is solid -- but that is certainly not the case with JE. Furthermore JE has been getting thrown out on the basepaths, and has only 5 2bs and 0 HRs since the AS break. Now, is JE screwing over the SP by calling a bad game? -- Hard to say. It has been awhile since we have gotten good production from our C, on either side of the ball.

ranted he BARELY got a ball deep enough to score a run - but I think Estrada has a better chance of hitting into a DP that hitting a sac fly. Yep -- and a good throw nails Braun.

Yes it was, you just love Yost.

then you would have asked why ned didn't pull him for defensive reasons with a three run lead. Not me. If the Brewers were up 6-5 in the 9th and Braun was not coming to bat -- I am all for it, otherwise I am pretty content with our best offensive weapon making errors.

Spurling still has value in being a blowout mopup guy or in case a game goes 18 innings. I wish -- I am pretty sure we will see "Seventh Inning" Spurling here pretty soon.

The fans are being criticized because the vast majority of them have no clue How do they differ from the coaching staff? -- I am being serious. Why should the fans be criticized for having no clue? -- They aren't being paid to have a clue. On the other hand our clueless coaching staff is being financed by the clueless fanbase to have a clue. Only questioning moves that don't work is exactly what has been going on, and to be honest, is painfully obvious. To be honest AL, this is an incredibly shallow argument for someone of your caliber to make. The dynamic that Nedophiles are either completely ignoring or completely oblivious to is that people are not questioning moves that don't work, rather questioning the low percentage chance of said move working out. Ned is making moves that have comparatively minuscule chances of working. Basically people are watching Ned stroll up to the roulette table and instead of betting red/black or odd/even, yelling "hit me". In short in a 50/50 world Ned's money is on green.

Did you ever see "The American Movie" -- about those 2 dudes in WIS trying to make a horror movie -- I really enjoyed that.

Oh, and is Netflix good? Yep. I buy people Xmas subscriptions and never a complaint.

My first paycheck job was working as a radio engineer, doing minor league baseball when I was in High School, I was paid 3.35 per hour.

Unbelievable, moronic, stupidity and half-assed play of horrifically nauseating proportings. If the Brewers keep Yost in 2008 -- this should be printed on their programs. Johnny Estrada -- twisting that knife every day.

Just a week ago I watched Miller let two very easy balls fly right past him, he's a well below average C at this point. I agree -- I don't think we can just start Miller for 5-6 games in a row. It did occur to me though last night that perhaps Miller could come in to replace Estrada in the 8th or 9th inning in close games -- I am not suggesting that this would solve all our WOAHS but it may get us a win here and there.

Melvin has said that he has never seen such criticism on a daily basis of a manager He must have forgotten about his tenure in Texas then. what do you want Melvin and Mark to do, throw Ned under the bus after every bad game, yeah thats good management No -- but they don't have to call the fans out either. They can back Yost and empathize with the fans as well. Who says all these moves are the wrong decision and they are costing us wins? Since the all-star break the Brewers are 27th out of 30 teams in wins. Is that what our team is capable of? or perhaps is our team under-performing. Any way you cut it the Brewers have had a miserable 2nd half, and are playing below expectations -- I think it is entirely reasonable for fans to be squawking. When it doesn't, we got Yosted and they "told you so" The players are never to blame and we would have 10 more wins without Yost. "The players are never to blame" -- When you make statements like this you give the impression that you do not thoroughly read this site. A LOT of the players have gotten the "blame" throughout this year, and in all of Yost's tenure. In fact, you may recall, Yost got a free pass early on and his players took almost 100% of the blame back in Yost's early years. Now that the talent of the players has gotten much more profound, I think it is only natural that the spotlight shifts from the players to Yost. I don't blame Yost for 2007 anymore than I blame him for the Brewers losing the WS in 1982 -- Just like I thought he sucked at catching, I think he sucks at managing.