Saying somebody has a 50% chance of being an impact player isn't really an insult of the player in my book. Well, you obviously had a different author to your book than mine. I don't think anyone said it was a coin flip that Harper would be an impact player, did they? Mike Trout? But hey, if people just simply want to say if you're a prospect its' a 50/50 chance you're going to be a impact player, regardless of the mountain of evidence to the contrary, then fine. Then I suppose there really is no difference in trading for Profar despite the spectacular #'s he's put up for his age and level and just take the two comp picks back. Better to have two picks to "flip the ole' coin" over than one, right? Hey, until you're proven, it's always just 50/50. There are no mitigating factors! Alright, that's about it for me on defending Profar's status. Nobody's done much arguing other than, "he's not even hitting .300(despite hitting .298 and slugging .860 as a kid who just turned 19) and he's not proven, so it's a flip of the coin. I'm sure we'd have passed on Matt Moore because he was a "flip of the coin as well." I am curious, we could take a look. How many prospects who have performed well in the upper levels before the age of 20 and have ranked among the top 5(not even just top 2) have been "flip of the coin," impact players in recent years? For some reason I don't believe you're done defending Profar because you've been saying the same thing every post. Look, nobody is saying Profar isn't a great prospect or that we don't want him. I think most people here would gladly take Profar in exchange for Greinke. I just think some people will always be wary of young, "unproven in the majors" prospects because there are always guys that don't succeed. As much as you think Profar is a slam dunk, you can't guarantee it. Sure there could be a 90%, 80%, etc. chance of him succeeding and there's no point in arguing what that percentage is. However, one thing is for sure and that is that he is not a 100% guarantee. I honestly don't even remember what you were trying to argue about anyway because like I said, most people here would probably do Profar for Greinke.