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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Well, Vegas is giving the Brewers a 54/46 edge today, so the collective wisdom of the nation is to not just assume the same thing will happen this start as last's. Even a hurt Suppan is not a true 45 ERA pitcher. I pitching machine might be able to do better than that. But as I always say, if you think Vegas is grossly incorrect, go out there and make some cash! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  2. rluzinski
    I think Jeff Cirillo can even do better than 5 runs/inning. furthermore, Svuem will have an insanely fast hook anyway, so no matter how bad Suppan is, he's not going to get a chance to end the game in the first inning. Just pretend he's coming in as a reliever...might make you feel better. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  3. rluzinski
    A one game lead with 3 to go is actually pretty darn big. The Nats might have only something like a 25% chance of winning that series. And the Brewers still have to win theirs. That said, anything can happen over 3 games, so I'll certainly be watching!
  4. rluzinski
    Really, at this point, it doesn't matter who's starting. If Suppon and/or Sheets can only be effective for 2 or 3 innings, no big deal. Pinch hit for them at the firtssfirst opportunity and go to starter #2. That's a luxury that the Brewers have by having so many available starters. Also, let's remember that a game 163 is a real possibility. Having a decent pitcher, like Bush, ready to go isn't the worst thing. Crazy to think that Galladdo could get two starts in the first round of the playoffs? If theBrewers make it, I'll bet you he gets game 1.
  5. rluzinski
    All the bunt success rates are in that "The Book" chapter, available through Amazon's online reader. The success rate of moving the runner over is certainly not 100% but as they explain, there is also a chance of a hit. Saying what a professional hitter "should be able to do" seems beside the point to me. Some hitters are better at bunting than others, for any number of reasons. It's a fact and it needs to be considered when assessing the merits of bunting. Svuem isn't, as far as I can tell. All to often, the failures of small ball is given a pass because the blame is placed on a player for not executing it correctly. To me, that's like blaming a batter for not getting a hit. It's Svuem's job to get the most out of his player's skill set as they stand RIGHT NOW. If Bill Hall hasn't even attempted a bunt for years and wasn't particularily good at it ever, why ask him to do it now? So we can all act surprised when he fails? Hart has speed and has bunted for a hit on occasion. He seems like a good candidate to put some bunts down.
  6. rluzinski
    He became rich by being able to properly weighing risk vs. reward, more often than not..
  7. rluzinski
    Suppan is probably a 4.75-5.0 ERA pitcher. Demspter maybe a 3.75 ERA pitcher? AAA Cubs lineup.... Brewers have home field advantage.... The Brewers will be favored but I'm not sure it will be dramatically so. I'd guess that the Brewers will be 55/45 favorites.
  8. rluzinski
    "Thus, over the long run, putting the ball in play statistically will result in more net baserunners than striking out. " For the nth time, it'comparing a ball in play out to a strikeout. Yes, I would like to magically convert every Brewer strikeout to a 30% chance of a hit but it doesn't work that way.
  9. rluzinski
    Now if Sheets can just be OK and the Brewers can somehow get into the playoffs..... CC, Sheets AND Gallardo pitching in the first 3 games of the playoffs? Am I getting greedy?
  10. rluzinski
    Hardy and Hart get a lefty. Make something happen, please.
  11. rluzinski
    We could be minutes away from the Brewers taking a comanding lead in the WC race or being way behind. This sucks.
  12. rluzinski
    Sucks to have to root for the Cubs' AAA team.
  13. rluzinski
    Shouse is an excellent LOOGY.
  14. rluzinski
    "A Braun bunt would have scored the go ahead run. The GIDP was just another rally killer." We have no idea how Duke would have pitched to Fielder with a runner in scoring position and an open base. Heck, I might not have minded if Braun had tried to bunt for a hit/sacrifice in that situation. My stance isn't that the Brewers should never bunt.
  15. rluzinski
    Yes, it is the lovely Wendy. As I said last year, I will change it when the Brewers make the playoffs. Tau, you bastard. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  16. rluzinski
    Remember when Davey Lopes was fired and his replacement, Royster, publically proclaimed that the Brewers were going to be aggressive on the basepaths and make things happen? This is exactly the same thing. But apparently it's winning baseball to make Weeks swing at a high fastball and make hart run, whether or not he got a good job or not. And why the HELL do you bring in your long reliever in when he bats the next inning? Bring in a 1 inning reliever, so you can pinch hit for him right away. This isn't rocket science.
  17. rluzinski
    "Yet this author feels it is appropriate to attribute the win to Dale Sveum's precious small ball philosophy, because the team scored 4 runs on just 2 hits." Tom H. wrote basically the same article today. It's one of the 20 baseball article templates, I think. Again, it's just guys trying to promote a brand of baseball they prefer. If they have to fudge on the facts, so be it, I guess.
  18. rluzinski
    Today has even a larger potential swing: http://i33.tinypic.com/29wwkjs.gif 53% swing! One thing you might notice is that if both teams win or lose, the Brewers odds actually go down. That's because the Brewers have a greater chance of winning today's game, according to my calculations, so they have less to gain with a win. Another thing to note is that my estimates say that the Mets have the easier final series, since the Cubs are a much better team than Florida , overall. With potentially no Zambrano and Harden and with a many of the starting hitters getting breaks, the Brewers are not even close to facing a full strength Cubs team, though So, keep that into consideration as well.
  19. rluzinski
    There's little proof either way, so why not just be cautious and not pitch him when he isn't needed? There is evidence that pitchers in general wear down to some degree. I don't see why you chance it in blowouts. It's a fan mentality to fear losing a 4+ run lead late. Yeh, it sucks when it happens but the odds of it are so low that that you really shouldn't make decisions based on trying to avoid it. Still just one loss. Save a starting pitcher's tank for when he's needed in a close game.
  20. rluzinski
    The Cubs score a lot of runs because they got on base a ton and hit for power. I don't think their situational hitting has much to do with anything. If the league average offense scored 4.5 runs/game and your team averages 4.6, there are still going to be stretches where the offense is going to be below average. The Brewers' offense might be streakier than average (I really don't know) but all offenses are streaky to some degree. Every team has at least a couple "offense still slumping" articles written about them every year. It's the nature of the game. Everyone always wants an explanation for streaks but often, there isn't one.
  21. rluzinski
    If anyone wants to read a very good study on the topic, go to Amazon.com and search for this book: "The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball" Do a search for "sacrifice or not" and you can read much of the chapter online for free. If you don't want to read all the guts of the study, just ook for the boxed "The Book Says" summaries. The bunting proficiency of the batter and the defensive positioning are two huge factors on whether attempting a bunt is a good move. Svuem doesn't care about either because he isn't considering anything. He's playing deadball era baseball. Maybe someone could provide a direct link to the Amazon online reader to that chapter. It's essential reading for a discussion like this.
  22. rluzinski
    There are certainly times where a bunt attempt is a sound strategy and many of them have already been mentioned. Bunting with a aman on first isn't necessarily bad when the defense isn't expecting it since there is a reasonable chance the bunter could reach. Even if that chance is only 15%, that might make it a good move. Bunting with very poor hitters isn't always bad, like with Kendall or Counsell. Bunting when a single run can shift the win probability for that game to the extreme is not necessarily bad. An extreme example is the bottom of the 9th in a tie game. That second run is worth nothing. There are other things to consider of course. The problem is, it appears that Svuem is considering NONE of this. If Fielder isn't batting, he considers the sacrifice bunt a viable alternative with a runner at 1st or 2nd and no out. It's an easy call to say he's wrong.
  23. rluzinski
    If anyone in the universe could predict when a team slump is going to start or end, I could buy changing strategied when in the middle of one. Unfortunately , no one has that skill, since team slumps are more less just random, unpredictable occurances. If anyone has the skill, let me know. Ender, Run frequency and expectency tables do not prove that a sacrice should never be attempted, certainly. But a amanger should take pause when an average situation makes sacrice bunting a losing proposition. Have you ever read "The Book"? Theyy do a very nice job of attempting to adjust for many of the factors you mentioned. If a defense is waiting for the bunt attempt, it's often tough to gain anything by still attempting one.
  24. rluzinski
    Every team looks like they've given up when they are in a slump. They look confident and energized when they win. I'd love to see what a confident team in a slump looks like, exactly . I just don't see it. What are the clues that I'm missing?
  25. rluzinski
    Exactly, Casey. The lower the run environment, the more valuable runs 1 and 2 are. The later in the game of a close contest, the valuable 1 run is. Playing small ball in inning 1 when you'll probably need 4+ runs to win is not smart. Even then, sacrifices oten only marginally improves your chances of scoring a run. If the batter is good or his bunting chances are bad, it' a bad idea. You just have to look at historical data to see proof.
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