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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I have to echo kramnoj's sentiments regarding a leadoff hitters. Why is so much emphasis placed on the leadoff hitter, yet it's OK to have a terrible batter in the 2 hole? A single/bunt/RBI single strategy is largely a losing one in today's game, so it's time to stop constructing lineups like it's 1905.
  2. rluzinski
    Over a half a season, a 3.0 ERA pitcher is around 2 wins better than a 4.75 ERA pitcher. So, that's about 4 wins over a season, which is a lot bigger than many apparently realize. If you think CC will have a 1.65 ERA and average 7-2/3 IP over 32 starts a year for years to come, he's worth $50+ mil a year.
  3. rluzinski
    Suppan pitched pretty much exactly like his career rates until September when he was just terrible. It isn't nearly as tidy as that. He had a terrible July, with only a 3.5 K/9 and a 9.43 ERA. His April wasn't very good either, with a 3.1 K/9 and a 5.19 ERA.
  4. rluzinski
    2009? He would be expected to have a bad OBP against everyone in the majors next year. I'd rather have Kendal lead off before Escobar next year.
  5. rluzinski
    We'd probably expect Weeks to hit something like .250/.355/.415 next year (conservative guess). If the Brewers could find a replacement at 2B that could hit like that and play even average defense, I'd take that upgrade. I have no idea where you are going to find a 2B like that, though.
  6. rluzinski
    Unless Suppan is signed though 2014, I don't think his contract will be the reason that the Brewers don't sign CC. Everyone keeps talking abotu trying to free up money in 2009 and 2010 for CC but that's probably only accommodating a third of the contract length he's likely going to get.
  7. rluzinski
    I think there is almost no chance of Escobar being moved to 2B for 2009. His stick would probably be terrible there, for one. According to this estimate: http://www.baseballthinkf...inor_league_translations/ We'd expect something like a .282/.308/.363/.671 line from him in the major next year. That would be hard to stomach at SS. But at 2B? Ouch. They wouldn't want to move him for his first year in the majors, only to put him back at SS, anyway. but Weeks is average and seems to perform poorly defensively in high pressure situations. I think Weeks is just a poor defender overall. I don't think there's any correlation to the game situation.
  8. rluzinski
    Sheets (B-) - What started as a career year ended up as another sign that he is made out of glass. So, had Sheets made his last 3 starts (2 regular season, 1 playoff) but struggled in them (say, a 5 ERA), would you have been forced to give him a better grade?
  9. rluzinski
    If we are more concerned with the impact of player's performances (in terms of winning and losing), I would just stick with WPA. Again, WPA just looks at how much the probability of a team winning changes per AB, summing up the net change for each batter. It can be somewhat unfair, since not every player is given an equal opportunity to impact a game (Branyan, for instance) but I guess we don't care about such things. Here are how some of the batter's did in terms of WPA/600 AB: Rivera: 6.68 Braun: 3.61 Fielder: 3.27 Branyan: 3.27 Kapler: 3.17 Weeks: 2.20 Hardy: 2.00 Cameron: 1.12 Dillon: .24 Hall: -.53 Hart: -1.04 Counsell: -1.79 Kendall: -1.79 Interesting stuff. Rivera, Branyan and Kapler all made the best of their limited opportunities. Weeks did well with translating his mediocre offensive numbers into a positive impact. Hart being right next to Counsell and Kendall, while playing a corner outfield spot, shows how silly his B- really is.
  10. rluzinski
    I thhought CC really enjoyed his time in Cleveland as well?
  11. rluzinski
    I assume that they will both leave and the Brewers can steal compete for the wild card. And part of getting there might include trading Fielder for a major league ready starting pitcher.
  12. rluzinski
    So, are we to judge from Branyan's C that they expected all along that Branyan would be called up from AAA, carry the team for a month, and be a major factor in saving the team's season? Ridiculous. And in his case, I don't think it would be hard to sell to the fans regarding his offensive worth. A HR every 11 AB isn't a tough sell.
  13. rluzinski
    Kendall was only a clutch player when compared to most other Brewers. You do you come to that conclusion? Based on Tom's made up stat? kendall was the LEAST clutch hitter on the entire team, based on WPA: http://www.fangraphs.com/...?team=Brewers&season=2008 Cameron gets downgraded because of the expectations that were placed upon him. There was absolutely NO reason to believe that Cameron would be any better offensively than he was this year. I don't think anyone sold him as some .900+ OPS hitter that was going to carry the team. Jeff Suppan is another story. Haudicourt even admitted that his grade for Suppan was almost a D and would have been a D if not for a pretty dominate stretch from after the allstar break to September. People forget that he was pretty darn good there. Like I said, I don't see how having a good stretch makes his overall value higher. It just means he had to stink even worse during another stretch. Just look at his overall numbers. Take all the emotion out of it, take all parts of the season into account vs. expectations and see where your grades line up. It's easy to take the emotion out of it on offense. Just use projections.
  14. rluzinski
    Cameron basically hit his offensive expectations on the head. His OBP was about 10 points lower than projected; his SLG was 30 points higher (according to ZiPS). How he made his outs is almost completely irrelevant in this discussion (we aren't trying to project future performance). I don't really get their obsession with WHEN a player did good or bad, either. All that really matters is their overall numbers and Hart had to easily be the biggest disappointment on the team this year. His .759 OPS (including a .300 OBP!) was .122 points lower than his projected OPS and his defense (including his arm) was a mild disappointment. B-? More like D.
  15. rluzinski
    Yeh, this hurting my brain trying to sort through this. There was only 2 positional players who received a grade over a B. Kapler got the only A with a .301/.340/.498/.834 line and solid defense. We should be able to safely assume two things from this: 1. They aren't holding an injury to a bench player against them. 2. They aren't kidding when they say preseason expectations play a large role in these grades. Fine, we all thought Kapler was going to stink and we were dead wrong. A it is. I have no problem with that. But hold on a second. Branyan was in AAA to start the season, so his expections might have even been even lower. He smoked Kapler's offense performance with a ..250/.342/.342/.583/.925 line while, playing equally solid defense. His grade? A C. Huh!? I'm sure this comes down to the JS boys having little clue as to how to measure offensive value. They also gave Braun "extra credit" for playing poorly while hurt, though, so perhaps there are some other problems in their analysis as well. Maybe I should throw the paper away and think about something else. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  16. rluzinski
    In today's paper. I guess I don't really "get" them. They say they are "based on players' performance on the field, with a heavy emphasis on preseason expectations." Does a player that perfectly matched his expectations get a C? A bad bench player who has a hot 100 AB get an A+? I thought I might be able to sort out their methodologies by looking at their grades but that just leads to more confusion. Anyone have any thoughts?
  17. rluzinski
    How can anyone make the blanket statement "sign him" without stating the dollar amount they think he's worth? The question isn't whether the Brewers should or should not sign him. The question is, what should they offer him? And if your answer is, "Whatever it takes", you are on the wrong track.
  18. rluzinski
    And here I was surprised by how nice the Mets/Marlins game looked up there. They never show much worth looking at up there.
  19. rluzinski
    Again, you are working under the completely unproven assumption that all else equal, the grizzled vet will outperform the scared youngin'. I realize that baseball reporters can't cover a postseason game for 5 seconds without assuming the same thing but I call bull. And when the two pitchers in question are lightyears apart in actual skill, who cares? I'll take 3-4 innings from the young, talented starter over a struggling, mediocre vet with playoff experience.
  20. rluzinski
    Pretend for a moment that instead of the Brewers trading for CC during the season, it had been the Cardinals. Pretend that he pushed the Cardinals into the playoffs. What do you think would be the odds of the Brewers signing him to a long term deal in that scenario? That is most likely very close to the odds that the Brewers have now. Sure, if the Brewers match the years but fall a couple mil short on the total, he might still choose the Brewers. Perhaps they'll win on a virtual tie. That's about the extent of a home town discountBrewer fans could reasonably hope for. 50:1?
  21. rluzinski
    Over the last two years, Bush's K rate has lowered and his walk rate has raised. He's Brewer property for 2 more years. No need to extend him.
  22. rluzinski
    Suppan was the right type of pitcher to bring into the fold. A pitcher with a lot of experience that performed great in the playoffs. A pitcher who won at the highest stage when there was a lot of pressure on him. And all that experience proved worthless, while mediocre Bush shined. So what's the point in giving value to such a thing?
  23. rluzinski
    There is insurance available for long term deals if he was to get hurt, that shouldn't be an excuse. The premiums for a 5+ year deal at $20 mil+/year would not be insignificant, to say the least. And dumping Suppan is not going to help pay for CC's contract in 2013. I think CC is going to get a huge deal. 6 years, $140 mil.
  24. rluzinski
    Over the last two years, Suppan has been above replacement level (better than freely avalable AAA vets) but below average. Putting his salary aside (and it's water under the bridge at this point, anyway), he's probably fine as a #5 pitcher. I just didn't like that he got the playoff start and specifically WHY he got the start. And if a remember correctly, Suppan's performance in the playoffs for the Cardinals must have been mentioned dozens of times by Melvin and Mark A., after he was signed.
  25. rluzinski
    Prince is a great hitter and a bad defender, who will be reasonably priced for at least two more years. I only advocate trading Prince if Melvin could get a very good return. If he can get the Brewers a solid young starting pitcher who could slip right into the rotation, great. If not, 35+ HRs and a solid OBP is a great plan B.
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