rluzinski

I have a blog FILLED with me being wrong about many things. Bad methodologies, bad assumptions, bad everything. If that's all they need, it would take someone about 5 minutes of reading it for them to get their fill. At this point, I still don't feel that my CC estimate was a bad one.

"Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, McClung/Villy isn't horrible. They should still be competitive and if the team is near the top of the division in July maybe we make a trade then." That's pretty much the worst case rotation and it isn't all that bad. If Sheets wants to come back for one year, great, but I wouldn't sign Sheets or CC to long term deals. If I were Melvin, I'd be aggressive in trying to trade Fielder for a good, young arm.

"Lets pretend that Bush continued to be a hot pitcher and the Crew took the World Series. He would be a big game pitcher." The correct thing to say is that Bush was a big time pitcher in the 2008 playoffs. To say "is", implies that his 2008 performance suggests that he should continue to perform better than his career norms in important games. An innate skill. I don't think that would be a very fair assumption. I think baseball fans do not always understand how important the is/was distinction is. Bill Hall was clutch in 2005. Player X has killed this team, in the past. Pitcher Y has been great on the road this year. Descriptive, not necessarily predictive. "I think that if the phrase "Big Game Pitcher" is outlawed, that the phrase "mid-season acquisitions are only worth a win or two at most" probably will be as well." If that's aimed at my CC estimate (which seems like a pretty fair assumption), that's a a pretty big distortion of my conclusions. Here's the post: http://rluzinski.blogspot...hia-be-worth-in-wins.html First of all, I said "worth closer to 2.5 wins". Second, as I tried to explain in the original CC thread, there are all kinds of statistical noise built into this kind of estimates. If I EVER gave the impression that I knew exactly how many wins he would net the Brewers in 2008, I apologize. I didn't think it needed to be said as I most certainly can not see into the future. Even if god came down from the heavens and shared with me every matchup CC would see and every probability of success associated with it, it would still just be an estimate. Play the season twice and you might get 2 wins the first time and 4 wins the next. But play the season a million times and this is what we would expect on average. But as far as I know, god hasn't whispered into my ear regarding this topic, so I have to fight statistical error AND the error of my assumptions. I used a 3.0 ERA assumption. Should I have used something lower? I don't think so but maybe? I've never seen statistical evidence of a "changing leagues" bonus but maybe there is one? Not one that's strong enough to come up with an expected CC ERA of 1.65, right? Should I not have assumed that he would be replacing a 4.75 ERA pitcher? At the time, it was a tough call who he would even be replacing. Considering the arms the Brewers had in the bullpen, I think 4.75 was reasonable. Average 7 IP a start? He ended up averaging 7-2/3 (which is amazing). I used 15 starts, not 17. No way to know that, either. You use the information you have at the time, just like everyone else's estimates evidently did. Is this just a misunderstanding or what?

I just didn't want the Brewers to be swept and they weren't. It's disappointing that the Brewers didn't give themselves the best chance to win today (Suppan... seriously!?) but overall, this team went about as far as they deserved to. A good but not great team. "I respectfully disagree that Sheets' year was a "great" one. Without CC we wouldn't sniff the playoffs because he actually pitched at the end of the season when the big games were taking place. Pitching on 3 days rest 4 times in a row is something the fragile one, Ben, would never dream of doing nor could he do because of his physical shape. But Sheets will be some other team's worry next season thankfully and he can continue his reputation of not being able to be counted on when his team needs him most" Take a step back for moment and just TRY to look at this objectively. There's no way that the Brewers would have made the playoffs without either of them. It's not even close. CC agreeing to pitch on short rest multiple times was wonderful. Sheets agreeing to pitch with torn muscle near his elbow was great. They both gave everything they had to give and both were great (although, obviously, CC's performance was on another level). But we'll replace Sheet's 3.1 ERA over 200 IP with a a 4.5 ERA guy and you will somehow say that the team is better.... and you will truly believe it.

I won't pretend to know what percentage but sure. When Suppan was signed, a great deal of the people who were in favor of it sighted his "big game pitching" as a main factor. There were even a few who wanted Suppan to pitch game 1 because "that's what he was signed for."

I was pretty spent after Saturday's game, so I have to admit to being a little more low-keyed today. Also, a noon start is just a lot different than a 5:30 one.

I didn't really mean this to turn into a "evaluate Suppan" thread. I'm simply talking about how pitchers like him can become overvalued by fans and other teams by picking up a "big game pitcher" label. It's pretty obvious that someone important in the Brewers organization did just that when Suppan was signed and it's probably why I had to suffer through watching him start game 4 today. That's the only explanation I can come up with for why he would have been given the start, especially with Gallardo available. I find it odd that the person who chooses to call CC Sabathia "terrible" is often the one to step to Ben Sheets' defense injury after injury that he sustains. I think everyone else knew what I was talking about but I was talking about their respective starts in the NLDS. I should have just said great and terrible results, anyway. CC had a bad start and having limited rest probably didn't help him. I'm not going to hold that against him. He's still far and away my first choice for a big game. Bush is a mediocre pitcher that pitched pretty well yesterday but that doesn't make him a big game pitcher. So, you can rest easy tonight knowing that I don't think CC is terrible.

I guess I'm just sick of people trying to project game performances using all these notions of clutch. I don't rule out its existence completely but the way it's abused by some, they'd be better off ignoring it altogether. Skill is 99% of the equation, isn't it? I would have preferred any combination of Yo, McClung, Parra or Villy before Suppan. He could have easily been kept off the NLDS roster completely. Instead, he got the start in game 4 because he was supposed to elevate his game. Nope. Svuem did a pretty bangup job witht the pitching staff but he made one huge mistake. I wonder if he was given any unsolicited "suggestion" from Melvin or Mark A?

Bush was great and CC and Suppan were terrible. Isn't that enough?

If are considering offense and defense, 3B and 2B are the two positions that are most ripe for an upgrade. Weeks isn't a bad hitter for a 2B but I just don't think his defese will ever be good enough to justify starting there. Cameron is by no means a steal at $10 mil but if a cheaper/better option doesn't fall into their lap, they could do much worse than Cam. "Pretty much an average player. His name is tossed around quite a bit here so I'm guessing that he has a high on base percentage. " How can you have an opinion on a player when you don't even know his stats?

The Cubs have been eliminated before the Brewers. How absolutely wonderful.

Bush against that LH Phillies lineup scares the crap out of me. I don't think 5 runs is going to do it for the Brewer offense. Moyer is a not-so-good lefty, so in THEORY, the Brewers should do well against him. And yes.... finally a MUST WIN! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

I'm mot going to speculate about his trade value, so I'll just talk about his production. He averaged a 3.5 ERA and 150 IP for $11 mil/year. If a fan can get over his frustrations of all those injuries and look at it objectively, I can't see how they don't think he was worth the contract. I guess they could have signed another Jeff Suppan. Certainly wouldn't have to worry about him being hurt for the playoffs because the Brewers wouldn't have even sniffed the playoffs.

Fielder has possibly the best plate discipline on the team, so to suggest he's part of the problem doesn't add up to me. He's not part of the problem. The Brewers are getting outplayed by a superior team. At this point we know the strengths and weaknesses of this team. They were just good enough to get into the playoffs and they haven't been embarrassed in any game. Accuse me of setting the bar low, but my goal has always been to just not get swept.

What's wrong with a little hyperbole now and then? We all use it to get our points across. I don't think Bruce is literally saying he's done watching the team. It's just a way of expressing his frustration. That's all he ever does, though. I want to talk baseball, not be his shrink.

The idea that the offense simply isn't patient enough doesn't hold any water, IMO. They took more pitches in the regular season than the average NL team, so it's not like they are just hacking at everything. And just brining in a guy who puts more balls into play next year isn't going to help a lick if he's not actually better overall than his replacement. The Brewers' offense projected to be the worst in the playoffs, so what are you going to do? They are what they are. If they want to get better next year, they will have to get some better hitters. 3B is screaming to be improved.

Bruce, Why are you even watching this? Didn't you give up on these losers 2 weeks ago?

Bush's Ks are down and walks are up. I think he's kind of just lucke himself to a nice ERA this year. I don't have much faith in him against that lefty strong Phillies lineup.

I agree more with homer's point of view. Pitch recognition is a skill, not something you develop in a player by holding them accountable for swining at balls. A player can improve his pitch recognition but I'm not sure how much a coaching staff can help. I'm sure a lot of it is also just guessing ( I think they are throwing a ball so I'm not swinging) but I'm not sure how much a coaching staff can help that. Perhaps, if a player is just swinging at too many pitches overall... In the end, I don't care about approach, I care about results. If Melvin can replace someone currently in the lineup with someone better, great. I don't want to here, "He get's on base the same, hits for less power but has a better approach".

Cameron, Hall, Weeks, Kendall, and the pitcher's spot is really going to kill us in the postseason. Thank god for Counsell.

Most CFers don't even get a glove on that ball, so it's hard for me to get angry at Cam. Hall and especially Weeks' mistake is a lot harder to swallow.

I actually thought Hart looked OK today. He worked the count enough to get Lidge to throw him a hittable pitch. He just missed it. He wasn't swinging at complete junk, as he's been prone to do the last few weeks. Go get em' tomorrow!

That being said, I still think you can look at Ben as *more* of a risk than someone who's been relatively healthy. Some people have pointed out that because all of his injuries are to different parts of his body that he's just been unlucky, and not necessarily "injury prone". I disagree with that, but I can at least see the merit of the argument. Well, I don't think it's smart to assume even 175 innings from him next year, so I obviously agree to some degree about him being injury prone. I'm just not sure if he has a higher probability of blowing out his arm, that's all. For a 1 year deal, I'd love to find out.

I'm more excited than nervous for today's game. The Brewers are supposed to lose today. If they can steal one, though, they immediately become the heavy favorites.

When will the gates be opened? Same as a regular season game?