rluzinski
-
Posts
9,362 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings
Milwaukee Brewers Videos
2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors
Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources
2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project
2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by rluzinski
-
Yes, some bad teams continue to be bad. I don't think that its fair (or logical) to use that to conclude that some players aren't trying their hardest. If anything, the vast majority of these players have millions of dollars of potential future revenue to keep them motivated. I believe that the Brewers were a decent team that had an under-performing bullpen early. They are now a decent team that has recently over-performed.
-
Wow, Aoki almost hit one out in the LC gap.
-
I'm sure it would come as a HUGE surprise to Atlanta. With no outs, it would be a terrible idea though.
-
BAD decision to throw to 3B on that sac bunt attempt. He would have been safe easily anyway.
-
My point was, if Gomez continues hitting next year like he did this year, it's not much higher than what his projection suggests he should. He's shown a nice tick in power but it's not like he's having some crazy breakout season. The whole selling high/low thing is just kind of overblown, IMO because most GMs don't think that way. If a career .750 hitter has a surprising .900 OPS season, GM's aren't expecting a .750 or .900 season the following year.
-
Aoki RF Gomez CF Braun LF Ramirez 3B Weeks 2B Maldonado C Ishikawa 1B Bianchi SS Peralta P Anyone else watching? Sounds like Hart will be out for at least a couple of days, dealing with pain in the arch of his left foot.
-
I think the notion of "selling high" is overblown. MLB franchises know to look at how the player has performed over more than just the previous season. Also, it's not like Gomez is hitting THAT much better than in the past: Gomez, career:.244/.292/.375 Gomez, 2012:.251/.298/.458 Just eyeballing that and knowing he's still young, I'd guess something like .250/.300/.425 for him next year. Let's see what his ZiPS projection sits at right now: Gomez projection: .240/.296/.440 Is the expectation that some team will think Gomez will perform even better next year that what he's done this year?
-
Many make such a big deal about who the remaining opponents are but in baseball, that is of secondary concern. For any given day, the Brewers may have a 50% chance of beating an average team and a 45% chance of beating a good one. Unless you get to play the Astros every day, it just doesn't make much of a difference. The Brewers coming back to make the playoffs is daunting because of how many teams are ahead of them and how few games are left. The Brewers took 2 of 3 from the Cardinals but the odds of them making the playoffs went down. BP puts the odds at 0% (rounded to the nearest .1% I assume).
-
Aoki has a .284/.353/.415/.768 line. I'm not going to complain about that but it is nothing special for a RF, either. I also wouldn't project him to hit better than that next year. I'm not suggesting that Gamel is a slam dunk to be more valuable there in 2013 but I think it's reasonable to assume he projects to be better with the stick. I'm not sure what is the best thing to do for 2013 with the current pieces. If Aoki is a reasonable option in CF, I would be tempted to just do a straight platoon in CF with him and Gomez. Give Hart 1B full time and Gamel will start at least against RHP in RF. Melvin needs to find a #4 RH OF with a little pop as well.
-
Multiple cameras triangulate pitch location. Called pitch f/x.
-
Not getting rung up on an 0-2 pitch with 1 out is not a huge break.
-
Like I said, regarding RH/LH splits, you are forced to basically assume they both have league average splits. It takes a very large sample (1,000+) before an individual split tells you more than an average one. The Book studied the matter: http://www.insidethebook.com/c06.shtml For a projection for Gamel, you have to rely on mostly his minor league numbers and scouting information. For Aoki, you can include his Japanese numbers but that is problematic as well. Basically, both players are difficult to project with a high degree of accuracy but my best guess would be to assume Gamel will be the better hitter next year. Of course, fielding and base running have to be considered as well. I just don't see Aoki being a very exciting option in RF next year but he wouldn't be bad either. And the MLB splits you posted for Aoki appear to be wrong. That is why I questioned it.
-
These samples are so small that they are 100% worthless. We probably have to assume that both players have career average LH/RH splits for one. Gamel has 269 career MLB PA's, including 48 against LHP's. And where did you get Aoki's splits? Do they include his Japanese stats because they don't match up with his major league splits: posting.php?mode=quote&f=63&p=815352 My guess for Aoki as a full time starter next year is something like .290/.340/.400. That is not bad for a RF making peanuts but it's nothing to get excited about either. I would expect Gamel to give us more power than that, although that is nothing more than an educated guess (mostly based on minor league numbers).
-
Its going to be tough to take 2/3 against Saint Louis, especially if Yo has one of the games as they have historically hit well against him. I agree that taking two of three against the Cards will be tough but the fact that Gallardo will be starting one of them only helps the Brewers. Pitcher vs. team splits should be largely ignored.
-
Weeks continues his tear with a 2 HR night yesterday... since this thread went up: 34 PA: .484/.529/.839/1.368 My expectations for him next year are far greater but is overall 2012 line is now surprisingly pretty reasonable for a second basemen: .230/.336/.395/.731
-
It's pretty silly that even with an expanded roster, their back up 3B is Bianchi.
-
That is a very interesting question. Right now, they have about a 1 in 200 shot of making the playoffs. If they are going to get that into double digits any time soon, they'll probably need to win their next 4 (finishing up the Marlins and sweeping the Cardinals). If they do that and the Pirates and Dodgers went 1-2, that might result in the Brewers having close to a 1 in 10 shot: Teams GB St. Louis - Pittsburgh 0.5 LA Dodgers 0.5 Milwaukee 3.0 Now, there is less than a 5% chance of that happening but my point is, if it did, the Brewers would have to reconsider shutting down Fiers and Estrada (at least right away). I doubt Melvin would announce a decision on either before that series anyway. Also, they could probably get away with a 4 man rotation. Of course, all this is just for the opportunity to play a game playoff to enter the playoffs but hey.
-
Lot's of fans do. Isn't that painfully obvious?
-
Wow, Carlos Lee's contract was bad for the Astros.
-
I largely agree, except that I wouldn't object to paying Marcum $10-$12 mil on a one year deal (if he's open to something like that). 2013 will be about the young starting pitcher. If Fiers if for real and two other guys can even be close to average, it could be a very interesting season.
-
I would be more than happy if Rogers could be a 4.5 ERA starter for $500k/year. I think he's destined to be just an OK reliever though. I think we can all agree that he has an interesting upside, though.
-
Still a long shot but its been my secret little goal since the Brewers fell out of the race.