Runs have been down the last few years. The average NL starter this year has 4.1 ERA so almost by definition, that is what to expect from from an average #3 pitcher. Of course, that league average includes a bunch of innings from #6 and #7 replacement starters. A better way to see how your game 1 rotation stacks up might be to just take the average projection from the top 15 NL starters to get an average #1, then the next 15 for the average #2, etc... That said, I don't think your numbers are that far off. I agree that fans in general have unrealistic expectations for an average starting rotation. A starter with a 4.0 ERA that is making league minimum is absolute gold. Even if the Brewers construct a very young starting rotation that projects to be a little below average, they will be paid so little that it will be more than worth it, provided they send the cash elsewhere.