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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    O look, the Cubs are going to win again. Yipee.
  2. rluzinski
    The Cubs have played 35 games against teams who are currently under .500, and 23 against teams at or above .500...their current record is 37-21 - not exactly a large disparity between their record and the number of games they've played against winning/losing teams to this point. That can be a very misleading way to try and measure the strength of a team's schedule (although it seems like a very popular way of doing it). It treats a team that's 1 game under the same as one that's 20 games under. Why wouldn't you just use the the straight opponents' records? The Cubs SOS currently sits at .499. If you take out the Cubs' 37-21 record from that, Cub's opponents have played slightly above average. I better way might be to just look at runs scored and runs against of their opponents. You could also just look at the component stats (walks, single, HRs, etc...). I think that's how BP comes up with the Cubs having 2.7 wins more than they would against neutral opposition (D3 - D2): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php That puts their neutral record at 34.3 - 23.7 (96 win%). In comparison, the Brewers having to face above average players have cost them 1.2 wins according to BP. The best way would be to also consider preseason projections of the indiviual players, since it's kind of silly to pretend that the results of 60 games is a good measure of a team's collective talent.
  3. rluzinski
    Wow, McClung saying that 4 walks in 5 IP is normal for him... ouch!
  4. rluzinski
    My understanding is that ZiPS makes all the necessary calculations, doing the appropriate regressions and adjusting for age. Their projection for him: .280/.338/.449/.787 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_milwaukee_brewers/ If he were part of a platoon, we should expect something a bit better.
  5. rluzinski
    Sure, I should adjust that expected .543 win% to the Cubs' remaining SOS and whether they play at home or on the road but I don't think that's going to have a very big effect. Those 9 extra road games equals 9 x .08 = .72 less expected wins (assuming the Cubs have an average expected home/road split). And while I haven't looked at their SOS going foward, neither has anyone else, apparently. People just seem to assume it's harder going forward because they played the Pirates a bunch. Nevermind that their current SOS is right around .500.
  6. rluzinski
    If the Cubs are an 88 win team, arent they still an 88 win team? If I am understanding you right, you are falling for the gambler's fallacy. Past events do not effect future events. Going foward, the Cubs should be expected to win at an 88 win clip (if that's our best guess at their true talent). What it doesn't mean is that because the Cubs won more than expected, they should be expected to give back some of those "lucky" wins. That's why I come up with 94 wins, even if I think they are a true 88 win team. In reality, we need to consider their production this year and adjust our expectations going forward, accordingly. 50-some games shouldn't chance the projection a lot (since that, in turn, was probably based on the prior 3 years or so) but it might suggest that they are really a true 90 win team.
  7. rluzinski
    The average fans loves himself the counting stats. They won't want to know that a guy averages 12.5 AB/HR. He wants to know that he had 50 HRs last year!
  8. rluzinski
    Why else would the American consumer buy a foreign vehicle if it wasn't for a better product? Perception of a better product. For years, a person could assume that japanese cars had better quality. For years, they were correct. Quality reports seem to suggest that the gap between domestic and foreign vehicles has been erased but perception appears to be lagging. Of course, when you make an inferior product for years, it's going to take a whole to erase that perception.
  9. rluzinski
    Going 5-1 against the Cubs in the final two weeks of September nets us 4 games in the standings alone, That's a fair point to make. If a team needs to catch a team quick, the easiest way to do it is by playing them head to head. Assuming that the Brewers have a 50% chance of beating the Cubs in each of those 6 games (I'm being generous), they'd have about a 11% chance of winning 5 or 6 total. If instead, the Brewers and Cubs were playing other teams, even if the game probabilities are all still 50/50, the Brewers need to both win at least 5 games and have the Cubs lose at least 5 games to get the same result. The odds of that happening is the square of the first probability, or 1.2% That said, those BP playoff odds reports takes that into consideration.
  10. rluzinski
    Yeah, the one that gave up the GW HR to Prince. Ha! Of course. I wonder if he was available if Yost had gone to Branyan or Counsell?
  11. rluzinski
    Our current playoff probability is 16% -- with a 6.6% chance of winning our division -- not real super odds. The version you are using ignores everything but this season's performances. That's like trying to project every player going forward based on only what they've done over the first 2 months. HUGE uncertainty in a projection like that. You should use the PECOTA version, IMO: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php Even then, you should take those odds with a grain of salt. BP regresses all the teams towards their preseason expectations but they don't update those expectations for injuries. Gallardo is still plugging away ewvery 5 days according to them. His loss easily cost the Brewers 3 wins. They predict that the Brewers are most likey to finish the season with a 58-46 run, which is at a 90 win rate team. Even with Yo, I have no idea how they justify that. Did they expect the Brewers to win 92+ games before the season started because they've done little yet this year to indicate that they are anything slightly above average.
  12. rluzinski
    Also Kapler has proven he can deliver in those situations. So did Damian Miller, Gross, Bill Hall and everyone else who "proved" something in a small sample, only to prove the opposite in another small sample. Let's not pretend that Kapler has "proved" anything in 2 months. Against a RHer, Kapler is way down on my list of people I'd like to see there. Did Arizona have a LOOGY available to bring in? If they did, that makes the move look much better.
  13. rluzinski
    This was brought up because someone said that if Braun and Hart can handle the corner outfield spot, they should be expected to be able to handle CF, because CFer is easier. I believe that is false. On the balance, an average CFer plays like an above average corner outfielder when moved there. In contrast, an average corner outfielder is a below average CFer. I've seen this illustrated in a few different ways, statistically. If Braun and Hart are like an average corner outfielder, they would do worse if moved to CF. Now, we know that they are probably not like an average corner outfielder, as they possess more speed than most. Still, as we all seem to agree, speed is just one small part of what's required of a CFer. The average CFer also has to read balls off the bat better than an average corner OFer. That's why I think it's odd that people think corner outfielders have some slice-reading skill that a CFer couldn't learn if they needed to. I think if you throw an average CFer into the corner outfield for the first time, he may find the slices initially problimatic. I just don't think that it would be much of an issue after a short time. And if it really is a skill, it's apparently not as valuable as just being able to cover more ground.
  14. rluzinski
    BP did a story last year where they looked at the teams with the highest "Postseason Odds", that ultimately did not make the playoffs, and the 2007 Brewers had one of the highest chances of making the playoffs, that didn't make the playoffs in NL history. It was 40th highest in major league history: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6764 My point of looking at the Brewers' 59-69 finish was that it really wasn't that dramatic when you look at it objectively. It sure felt more dramatic as a fan, though.
  15. rluzinski
    Davey also said that he took a larger lead on lefties because he was looking right at them. I HAD to have heard that wrong, right?
  16. rluzinski
    So if they are average the rest of the way, they will match the preseason expectation. They could certainly play like a below average team for the rest of the year. They could also stay on the same pace and finish with 100 wins. Anything is possible. I'm just trying to come up with a reasonable estimate for their most likely final record and it's north of 92 wins the way I see it. There's no reason to believe the Cubs are really just an average team. They were projected to be above average and they've played well above average so far.
  17. rluzinski
    I don't think people realize how monumentally bad our collapse was last year, and it is probably not going to repeat this year. It's not so much what the Brewers did that made it so noteworthy; it's that the Brewers' fade coincided with the Cubs resurgence. The season started off with the Brewers WAY over performing and the Cubs WAY underperforming. For the rest of the year, the Brewers underperformed and the Cubs over performed. After their amazing and completely unsustainable 24-10 start, the Brewers finished the season 59-69 (75 win pace). Considering preseason expectations were only around 83 wins and considering that I'm purposely selecting the worst sample that I can find, it's still a bad finish but not THAT bad. The Cubs low point was 22-31, despite having a positive run differential. They finished the season on a 63-46 run (94 win pace). Their hot finish was significantly more extreme that than the Brewers cold finish. Why I don't think the scenario will repeat itself in the opposite direction this year is because the circumstances are different. This year, the Cubs are fundamentally a better them than the Brewers were last year and the Brewers really haven't underperformed much this year up to this point, record-wise. What "should" the Brewers record be right now? 31-27? That's what a true 86 or 87 in team would be at right now and without Gallardo, I can't see realistically expecting much more, in a "true talent" sense. If the Brewer catch the Cubs, it will be because of massive injuries to the Cubs or massive luck for the Brewers. Both are possible but not likely.
  18. rluzinski
    This might be a longshot call - we're probably drawing to an inside straight, so to speak, but the size of the pot justifies it in my opinion. Recognize that it's a long shot to hit the hand but the pot odds justifies staying in the hand? That's an analogy I might be able to get behind.
  19. rluzinski
    Not saying things will change, but there's 2/3 of the season left. Just way too early to give up right now man. I'm not saying that I'm giving up. Just that it's not worth it to me actively rooting against the Cubs every night anymore, especially if they are playing a team that has a shot at the wild card. Just wanted to see how many people were on my side http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif All I know is, the Brewers could be 2.5 games out of and ties for second place in the wild card race by tomorrow. That's a lot more exciting to me than the prospect of being 6 games back.
  20. rluzinski
    I'd define "harder" as a skill that less people possess. Less players can play CF at an acceptable level, so it's harder. I don't know how else you can define it.
  21. rluzinski
    I think we tend to get caught up in statistic odds sometimes which can be a little misleading. How is it misleading? The odds are what they are. Injuries and luck can always wreak havoc on those kind of calculations ,of course, but that odds of that happening to either team is equal. The Cubs have both the more talented team (although we could argue about just how much) and have a 7 game lead. That's some tough odds. I guess the real question is, What odds are great enough as to make it worth actively rooting for and investing in emotionally? At this point, the Brewers might have something like a 1 in 10 chance of catching the Cubs For me, that's just too great great of odds to root for when the Brewers still have a better reasonable chance at making it though the wildcard route. I'd rather just focus on that goal and hope the Cubs steamroll every other team that has the same hope. Obviously, others are free to disagree, which is the point of this thread. If the Cubs lost Zambrano for 8 weeks, then the lead they have now is nothing. You think Zambrano over 8 weeks is worth 7 wins over his replacement? The Cubs will not keep this pace. Ryan Theriot is not a .320 hitter, Zambrano is not a strong second half player, and Ryan Dempster is Ryan Dempster. And like I said, you will find no objective person and probably few Cubs fans who would disagree. But if they play at an 88 win level (the level they were expected to before the season even started), it's about a 50% chance of 94 wins. Thats' the low end of any objective guess. Could they lose 10 in a row? Of course. But so could the Brewers.
  22. rluzinski
    After tonight's inevitable win, the Cubs will be 37-21 and will be on pace for 103 wins. While no one thinks they'll keep that pace up, what if they simply play like the 88 win team that most expected before the season started? That's STILL 94 wins. The Brewers would have to finish the season 64-40 to even tie them. That's playing like a 100 win team for 2/3rd of a season to have a 50% chance of winning the Central. In other words, the Brewers have no reasonable of winning the NL Central, IMO. As Brewer fans, I think it's time to root for the Cubs to beat any team that might have a shot at the wildcard and hope for the chance to beat them in the NLCS. Are you with me!?
  23. rluzinski
    I know Hardy had a bad year defensively last year but what has he done this year that's been bad? I think Hardy is a MUCH better defender than hall, with Hall getting the nod offensively. Of course, Hardy will be much cheaper over the next two years...
  24. rluzinski
    So, provided a player has superior speed and a a superior ability to read balls off the bat, CF is easier. Apparently, those skills are harder to come by than finding a guy who can handle a slice, because the pool of players who can handle CF is obviously much smaller in the majors. Personally, I have no doubt that any decent CF would be even better in the corner.
  25. rluzinski
    I don't blame Hall for wanting a trade and I don't blame the Brewers for doing what they want with him. I always thought that publicly demanding a trade was a dumb thing to do, however. All it does is lower your value on the open market. I doubt the Brewers could even give Hall away right now, with his contract as it is and this public declaration isn't going to raise that offer. The only thing that is going to happen as a result of this demand is the fans spewing their typical venom.
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