rluzinski

WEEKS! Let's hope that he has said goodbye to .200 for the rest of the year.

Hey, Cameron makes the gold glover play I was whining for earlier!

Only Yost would think that he's holding someone accountable by playing Counsell It's Tom H. that's turning it into that silliness. What does that really mean, anyway? Don't teams just play the guys they think gives them the best chance of winning?

I keep expecting Cameron to wow me out in CF and I'm still waiting. He's seemed solid overall but is he really a gold glove caliber defender anymore?

Am I wrong to already be thinking about the sweep? Desperate times call for desperate measures!

Forgive me, but how many 5-run leads did the Brewers squander last year? I guess I can't blame the Yostess with the mostess for getting him out of there. I assume you appreciate the difference between having a 5 run lead in the first or second inning and having a 5 run lead in the 9th with 2 out? That's what the win probability chart was supposed to illustrate. As long as the game is still going, there's some chance of both teams winning. But with 2 on, 2 out and a 5 run lead in the 9th, there was no desperate need for Yost to fake an injury to make sure Gagne did not face another batter. He could have warmed someone up, let Gagne give up a bomb and he STILL would have had a 2 run lead to work with. It was very close to the pinnacle of over-reaction scenarios: 2 outs in the 9th, with the bases loaded and a 5 run lead. The announcer (either with excitement or fear, depending on what team he works for) will inevitably proclaim, "The tying run is on deck!" I just don't get worked up over the 1% chance of the game going to the underdog. You can't have your manager making decisions to avoid the "big loss" at all costs, at the expense of everything else. That's managing for the media and it's a bad idea.

It's results that matter. It's not hard to look at the 2005 season, the results, the payroll (half of this year) and the players on that team and compare it to the actual (not what we wished for in spring training) results from this season. So, what's the point of this thread? Anyone can look at win% and conclude that the 2005 team was "better". And if the current Brewers creep over .500 at some point, they'll then be better... until the lose another game, then they are the same. As Ender said, it was fairly obvious that the 2005 team had performed better than their actual talent justified and they predictably regressed in 2006. Actual talent and on field performance does not perfectly match each other over a game, month or even a season. When the Brewers started off 24-10 last year, it was obvious that they did not have the talent to keep that pace up (although it was surprising that they actually played well below average after that point). When the Cubs were well below .500, it was obvious that they had the talent to be above average. To give another example, here are what the top 3 teams in the NL Central are on pace to win: Cubs: 98 wins Cardinals: 91 Astros: 87 Would it really be bold of me to predict that none of those teams will finish with that many wins? But if they realy are as good as they've played, why can I make that prediction so easily?

About 1 in 3.

You're right, but I couldn't help but feel a little tense after the way things have been going lately. I didn't say I was comfortable watching that ending, emotionally. I certainly don't blame any Brewer fan for getting tense when it looks like the Brewers are trying to give another game away. A manager can't manage that way, however. He has to looka the facts. Objectively speaking, the game was never that close. Here's the win probability for the game: http://fangraphs.com/tgraphs/20080520_Brewers_Pirates_0.png As you can see, all that action in the 9th didn't even budge the win probabilities. Now, that's assuming an average pitcher, which Gagne certainly is not right now. But even the worst reliever in the league is going to be able to get1 out before coughing up 5 more runs the vast majority of the time.

There wasn't exactly an urgent need to get another reliever into the game, considering the circumstances. A 5 run lead with 2 outs in the 9th isn't exactly panic time. I know Bill Schroeder tells you guys to panic in those situations but the outcome of the game was never in any serious question.

I find striking 18+ batters out in a start far more impressive than a no hitter. Getting a no hitter is a neat accomplishment but it takes A LOT of luck and good defense.

After a pitch, he acted like something was bothering him. It probably wouldn't be the worst idea to milk it for a 15 day DL stint, even it was nothing, though.

Milwaukee is just as talented as Boston, but our players don't play like them. Come on, now. Boston was projected to win 92 games in probably the hardest division in the league. The Brewers were projected to finish with 85 wins BEFORE Gallardo went down. Boston has more talent, which would be expected, since their salary is 65% higher than Milwaukee's.

Alright, just need to go 7-4 over the next 11 games! Baby steps.

Put him on the DL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SWEET! Yeh, that'll fix everything. Yes!

And the Cubs are actually losing for a change. Might get back to 6.5 games back, boys! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Wow, Cameron hit that in the perfect spot. I sure feel better about a 4 run lead than a 2 run lead.

Running into more outs. Even if the 3B did bobble it, LET PRINCE HIT. Cameron must be sleepwalking tonight. I'm sure it was a called double steal, since you have to "stay aggressive on the base paths" and all that other crap.

A bad player can have a good year, so are we talking about talent or results?

Why use ERA when you just basically want to know the results of their pitching (as opposed to estimating their actual skill). ERA is just dumb, anyway.

McClung's problem has always been his command, so he's deserved the chance.... http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1657_P_season_full_2_20080519.png O... crap.

WHIP over one season is a really bad stat for a reliever. There's just too much randomness with balls in play over 60 IP, or whatever. WHIP in general isn't all that, as it treats a single and a HR as the same thing. If we are talking about estimating the skill level of a reliever, we shouldn't just restrict ourselves to the stats from this year. I'd start with their strikeout and walk rates over the last 3 season or so. Then, I'd look at their FB/GB ratio and make some inferences about their HR rate from that. I'd probably just ignore their BABIP, since I don't think I could infer much from it anyway (sample size!). If you want to just know how their performance has been this year, look at runs allowed and inherited runners allowed (accounting for the base and out situation).

I am sure that Attanassio doesnt run his other business this way so Im not exactly sure why he is allowing one of his employees to stick around when he has alienated his fan base. Let's not pretend that the all fans are unanimously behind the idea that Ned is the a big part of the problem and should be fired immediately. It's a very vocal (although growing) minority, IMO. I don't think firing Yost will have any meaningful effect on the current season, so I'd rather wait until the off season so that Brewer management can take their time picking a replacement. They idea that SOMEONE MUST PAY and it MUST BE DONE NOW is just an emotional response, so I'm glad that management isn't making any hasty moves.

My take: Outfield defense = average (with Braun learning as he's going) Infield defese = TERRIBLE. As for Villy, he was hyped up so much that he never had a chance to reach people's expectations. When people are talking about your poise like it's your greatest attribute, you are porbably in trouble. Villy's probably not the sub 4 ERA pitcher he was last year nor the 6+ ERA pitcher he's been so far. His HR rate is bloated right now, so he's bound to improve. He's valuable but nothing special.

I don't think an 8-4 run would mean that everything is "all good" but it's a reasonable goal and you have to get to .500 to get over it, so first thing is first. This is all rough and dirty but it's better than nothing. I started off by taking the averaged preseason projections from here: http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/comments/the_2008_diamond_mind_projection_blowout_pt_2 I took 3 wins off the Brewers projection for the Gallardo injury (85 wins down to 82) and 2 wins from Atlanta for the Smoltz injury. I don't think any other team involved had significant injuries but let me know if I'm wrong (it won't make much of a difference anyway). I then took the teams' current pythagorean record (projected record based on runs scored and given up) and regressed that 80% towards their preseseason projections. Some might think that I'm weighing the preseason projections too much but the opposite is probably true. That gives us the "true talent" of each team, in teams of win%. Then, I pretty much copy this procedure: http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/playoff2002.htm Log5 equation.... add 4% to the win probability for the home team. Run a monte carlo and there you go. I can SEE into the future! (OK, no I can't). Anyway, here are the the Brewers calculated win probabilities against each team during this series: Pit: 51.4% Was: 52.4% Atl: 49.2% Hou: 55.9% Weighted average for the series of 51.9% Way better than 50%! and the 12 game odds: 6+ wins: 67% 7+ wins: 44% 8+ wins: 23% 9+ wins: 9% So, almost a 1 in 4 chance of being .500 by June 1st. YES!!! WOO HOOOO! There is hope!!! God, it sucks to be a Brewer fan.