Jump to content
Want to get your head around free agents the WORLD CHAMPION Brewers can spend on this winter? Click here and check out our top 75 free agents ranking! ×
Brewer Fanatic

rluzinski

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,362

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Memo to Prince, have fun at the arbitration hearing next year after this garbage year you are having. Talk about "what have you done for me lately?" The gal of Fielder to only have a .367 OBP and a .800 OPS. And yes, his defense stinks, just link last year and probably every year for as long as he isn't a DH.
  2. rluzinski
    2 runs in 6 IP for Bush. Come on, offense.. let's steal one!
  3. rluzinski
    If Bush can get through the 6th inning and the Braves 3/4/5 hitters I would be surprised and happy.
  4. rluzinski
    i think he is...he just hasn't made any adjustment and everyone has hin figured out His velocity is down (according to pitch f/x his average fastball is down 1.6 MPH from last year) and he's throwing WAY more balls. As a result, his strikeouts are down and his walks are up. I think it's obvious that he hasn't been the same pitcher so far. Of course, Bush is actually having a nice start so far and the Brewers are getting blanked.
  5. rluzinski
    Injuries are always the thing that can destroy projections. They can have a huge effect on a player's performance and there's no real way to quantify it.
  6. rluzinski
    What's the harm in asking if something easy can be done to fix the other 2%? I don't mean to suggest that some topics are not worthy of being explored. We just don't even know if it's really a team deficiency, much less whether it's easy to fix. Fans always think their team: * Makes too many outs on the bases * Doesn't get enough clutch hits * Gives up too many 2 strike/2 out hits * Doesn't move the runners over often enough * Doesn't score a lead off double or runner at 3B with less than 2 outs often enough And on and on. As a fan, that stuff always seems to occur more often than they should. Often, I just don't think we can eyeball that kind of stuff and know if our team really is worse than average. We need to look at the numbers. Does any website keep track of OOB (outs on base) or do we need to estimate it indirectly?
  7. rluzinski
    Just those simple things can change the outcome of one or two games and put us at or above .500 right now. I agree that you can't point to that as THE problem, but you also have to recognize that it can have a significant impact in some places. It's not like other teams don't get picked off, get caught stealing in bad situation or get thrown out at the plate. If those things never happened, they are probably being too conservative to begin with. It's hard to say if the Brewers have made too many mistakes. I'd rather they not hit and run and attempt double steals less often but that's a managing philosophy issue. If a Brewer runner doesn't take a good lead at 2B, this board would be the first to complaint that our players never seem to score from second on a base hit. If they never risk getting thrown out at the plate, they'll leave too many runners stranded at third. I think dadofandrew is right. The biggest issues are obvious and make up about 98% of the problem. We can focus on the other 2% but it seems like we'd be doing it more for convenience than anything else.
  8. rluzinski
    I think the guy is a turd as well but I think I'll be able to stomach him getting an inning every 3 or 4 days. It's not like having to put up with a positional player every game for 9 innings. We already knew that Melvin was desperate for some relief help. I mean, Jackson?
  9. rluzinski
    How many hours can you spend talking about gas prices (have you SEEEEEN how hight they are!?), child sex offenders and a three-legged dog named Stumpy that likes swim? With the internet, people can get the sports, weather and world news that they want, whenever they want it. I don't see a very large market for the stuff that only the local news can offer. What is that anyway? Fear mongering and feel good stories?
  10. rluzinski
    Worst case scenario is he is as bad as Bush which we are putting up with anyway. I will post it again: ERA, Last 3 Years: Bush: 4.41, 5.12, 6.56 Weaver: 5.76, 6.20, 6.69 (AAA) Weaver being as good as Bush is the worst case scenario? Give me one good reason why I should think Weaver is even AS good as Bush. And even if we think that the Brewers only have a 1 in 3 chance of winning when Bush starts, that doesn't mean that it might as well be zero. Far from it. As others have pointed out, Bush's peripherals have been pretty bad this year, so his bloated ERA has certainly been earned so far. That said, just making random moves and hoping for the unexpected to occur is no kind of solution. If that's a viable strategy, you might as well leave Bush in the rotation and hope he starts pitching like he did in 2006. Expected? Of course not, but it's possible! If Melvin wants to find a replacement for Bush that is clearly more talented than him, I think that he'll have to acquire him via trade. Of course, I'm assuming that McClung predictably bombs in the starting rotation and Villy gets his spot back. If I'm wrong, I could see Villy taking Bush's spot if Bush is still sporting an ERA over 6 in a month.
  11. rluzinski
    Tell me how often a guy gets on base and how much power he hits for. Whether he tends to have groundball outs or flyball outs or strikeouts is almost completely irrelevent. Heck, you could argue a guy like like Kendall, who grounds into a lot of outs is worse than a guy who strikes out a lot. Just fans confusing what they don't like to watch with what hurts the team more.
  12. rluzinski
    He's upset, which is expected. He's just venting frustration. I doubt anything comes of it.
  13. rluzinski
    An average team wins about 54% of their home games and 46% of their road games. The Brewers have played 11 extra road games than home games. If we switch 6 road games to home games, the Brewers would be expected to have won about half an extra game. Even if the Brewers have a higher than average home/road split, they should maybe be 1 game under. I think that the Brewers are going to need 90+ games to make the playoffs. They are going to have to go on some kind of tear at some point to get back into this one.
  14. rluzinski
    Seriously, what would be the risk in giving Weaver a chance and sending Bush back down for a while? The risk is obvious and it is that Weaver is even worse than Bush. ERA, Last 3 Years: Bush: 4.41, 5.12, 6.56 Weaver: 5.76, 6.20, 6.69 (AAA) Neither have been good for at least a couple of years but it should be obvious that one should be expected to give you a better chance of winning than the other. Now, if there's a plan C that's better than both, I'd jump at it. Right now, there's nothing.
  15. rluzinski
    Of course the Brewers could only muster up a single run. You know, because another potential heartbreaker for the fans has to always be around the corner.
  16. rluzinski
    Was that the worst 'safe' call on a steal ever? Kapler was already two steps towards the dugout when the call was made!
  17. rluzinski
    Sacrificing a runner over to 3B with 3TO coming up is worthless. What is Hart doing? 3-1 pitch? Even if he was trying to bunt for a base hit..... crazy. Thank you, Kapler.
  18. rluzinski
    and more so, why ned didn't argue and get ejected Just curious but, how often does that get the call changed?
  19. rluzinski
    I hate hating baseball before Memorial Day. My expectations are pretty modest. Give me something meaningful to watch for 100+ games. The 2008 Brewers have failed in meeting even that goal. It's hard for me to justify the financial and emotion investment I make on this team every year when being out of it in May is the rule, not the exception.
  20. rluzinski
    I'll play low stakes blackjack on occasion and I couldn't care less how everyone else plays. For one, it's irrelevant. Second, what level of play should I expect if I'm playing low stakes blackjack!?
  21. rluzinski
    Then why is the correlation factor so low? What method did you use to test the significance of the correlation coefficient? I'd appreciate if you showed me your assumptions and the calculations.
  22. rluzinski
    Down by 4 with 9 outs to go and Yost takes Hart out for Gwynn? Is he telling me that the white flag is being waved and I should stop wasting my time watching?
  23. rluzinski
    Bush's performance has really been sliding the last 1+ years. Not sure what's going on there but I don't know if the Brewers even have a better option right now. Not good. And the whole "regression to the mean" is a misuse of the term. It isn't appropriate to use for performance events. Its used for things like coin flips. It absolutely applies here. It is used whenever you are trying to use a sample to estimate the value of an underlying population. A batter has a .320 BA in 400 AB his first year in the majors. If you want to use that to estimate his true BA skill, you regress his previous BA towards the average BA to some degree. That's your best guess. Want to estimate a team's true win%? Take their current win% and regress to the mean. Take every extreme performance every year and assume that the performance will be closer to average the following year and you will be right the majority of the time. That's why "on pace" stats for extreme performances are neat to look at but worthless as a predictor.
  24. rluzinski
    We know what we have with Sheets and Suppan. Parra has a decent ERA and FIP and "should" be OK this year. I hope that Bush can still be that mid to high 4 ERA pitcher that he used to look like. Big question mark for that #5 spot but frankly, how many teams don't have that same problem? The startin rotation is by no means a strength but I don't know if it will be the undoing of this team, either.
  25. rluzinski
    If you look at fangraphs.com: Braun swings at a lot of pitches outside the zone (O-Swing%): http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=4&season=2008 Which has the tendency to lead to a low walk rate: http://www.fangraphs.com/custom%20graphs/OSwing.png http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/research-dissecting-plate-discipline-part-1/ He does see about 2.5% more balls in the zone that an average hitter did last year, which should theoretically lead to less walks as well. That only works out to about 1 extra strike every 11 PA (he averages about 3.5 P/PA). I don't see that having much of an effect on his walk rate, personally. And this makes me a little nervous: "Seeing that it correlates so well from year to year (at least in 2005 & 2006) suggests that players do not quickly develop plate discipline. Perhaps it's a skill that can be learned over time, but there are few players who saw drastic changes in OSwing from 2005 to 2006. Less than 10% of all players with 300 at-bats in 2005 and 2006 saw more than a 5% change in OSwing from 2005 to 2006." http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/more-on-plate-discipline/ Does Braun's bad plate discipline cause pitchers to want to throw him more balls but Prince batting behind him cause them to actually throw more strikes? Of course, aren't half of Braun's PA this year from when he was batting after Prince? I just don't udnerstand why pitchers throw Braun so many strikes.
×
×
  • Create New...