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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Never give up!
  2. rluzinski
    2 out! Please, one more.
  3. rluzinski
    I have my first brewer induced headache of the season and the first game isn't even over yet.
  4. rluzinski
    It's going to be Riske I think. He was warming up last inning.
  5. rluzinski
    Extra innings = free baseball! Wooo hoooo!
  6. rluzinski
    It counted today, and he was good. I'm sorry if I gave you the impression that Mota hasn't made an out in 3 years. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  7. rluzinski
    Mota owned Theriot and Soriano.
  8. rluzinski
    Mota had a great spring. And Sheets had a terrible one. Mota hasn't been good when it counts since 2004. Piniella is using his best relievers right away and Yost should as well.
  9. rluzinski
    Isn't Mota our second worst reliever? With a day off tomorrow and the game tied late against our biggest rival, why?
  10. rluzinski
    If that pickup results in Zambrano being hurt for any length of time, it's going to be worth it.
  11. rluzinski
    Of course when he takes Gwynn out it would be for Kapler so I'm not sure it would really be worth it anyway. Prince is going to have to deal with LOOGYs, no reason to make Gwynn do so as well. No chance of Dillon, huh? Saved for the infield? Batting Gwynn 2nd also makes batting Kendell 9th almost a complete waste of time.
  12. rluzinski
    I still don't know why Yost puts Hall in front of Hart, but I am just a fan. The same reason why he bats Kendell 9th but has the 7th best hitter in the lineup second.
  13. rluzinski
    I really thought Yost wouldn't be foolish enough to bat his only two LHers back to back. I really never thought I'd overestimate Yost. Heck, I forgot to even consider that, which REALLY makes Yost look foolish. He could mitigate the situation somewhat by taking Gwynn out any time a lefty is called in to face him but you just KNOW Yost isn't going to do that. Of course, anytime he sets up one of his players to fail, Yost will just casually explain that even though the move/nonmove lost the game, it was worth it to "teach the kid how to handle pressure situations." I know, I know. The season hasn't started yet....
  14. rluzinski
    Now that it's official, I'd like to take a moment to question the logic of one Yost's lineup decisions. I'm not a big fan of Gwynn even starting but that decision is at least defendable, primarily because of the defensive upgrade he represents. What's not defendable is batting him 2nd. Even is we pretend that power is completely irrelevant in the two hole (which is not true), Yost probably shouldn't be expecting much from Gwynn in the OBP department either. We all know that Gwynn has trouble even getting the ball out of the infielder and the highest projected OBP I've seen for Gwynn is .331. If that holds true, there's a good chance that his OBP will be lower than any other starter. Couple that with the fact that the only starter he has any chance of outslugging is Kendell, it's clear that Gwynn will be the 7th or 8th best hitter in the lineup on opening day. The only real offensive value Gwynn really has in in the stolen base department. Of course, Yost didn't want to bat Braun in front of Fielder, since he (rightfully) doesn't want to attempt a stolen base with Fielder batting. So his answer is to move Fielder to the 3 hole and have Gwynn bat before him!? How does that begin to make sense? Even an optomistic projection for Gwynn for 2008 might be something like .280/.340/.380. He should be batting 7th and it's not even close, IMO.
  15. rluzinski
    Yes, James is getting a bad habit of calling for more research to be done on a topic that is being continuously researched. People have never stopped looking for statistical evidence of cluth hitting and some have found evidence of a small effect. It's not going to make Jetter a better option than Arod when a clutch hit is needed, however.
  16. rluzinski
    Everyone has the right to boo; that's not even what's being debated. This is all very simple to me. I'm a Brewer fan. I want the Brewers to succeed. I do my best not to boo a Brewer player simply for bad performance because it can't help and may actually hurt the team I claim to have an allegiance to. I try to put the team ahead of my hurt feelings. Booing for managerial decisions that you disagree with... I try not to do it either but I can at least appreciate the theory that it's the only real way for a fan to show their disapproval. of course, if you are booing any move that has a bad result... you might want to adjust your expectations.
  17. rluzinski
    Is it already confirmed that Gwynn will be batting 2nd? Yes. A projected lineup isn't a confirmation. That appears to be Haudricourt's best guess. I assume that's how it will play out but I wanted to know if it was official. The idea of Gwynn batting 2nd and Hart 6th in the same lineup seems pretty stupid to me.
  18. rluzinski
    Is it already confirmed that Gwynn will be batting 2nd?
  19. rluzinski
    Yes, we don't want Gwynn to start because he's the son of a one of the nicest and respected baseball players ever. Makes a lot of sense.
  20. rluzinski
    Tell that to the Trevor Hoffman and the San Diego Padres. The worst major league hitters still get on base 30% of the time, so that comment is pretty silly.
  21. rluzinski
    A .300/.360/.400 line would be great for a good fielding major league CFer. I just don't see Gwynn putting that up this year. It's not impossible, just very unlikely, IMO.
  22. rluzinski
    This has been said a million times but if Gwynn's name was John Smith, no one would care about him. Good defense, terrible offense.
  23. rluzinski
    Using the aggregate odds from here: http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/comments/the_2008_diamond_mind_projection_blowout_pt_2 Yankees Make Playoffs: 70% Mets Make Playoffs: 84% Both Make Playoffs: 59% One Makes Playoffs: 36% Neither Makes Playoffs: 5% These projections don't consider everything, obviously but it's hard to put the odds of both teams missing out very high.
  24. rluzinski
    I don't see the value in comparing this team to teams that were embarrassingly bad. It's only a month but I'm disappointed that a projected .671 OPS is the best Melvin could do, even when I consider the improved defense.
  25. rluzinski
    Not anymore than you can look at Run Differential an"projections" and call it a day. With regard to projections, am I to presume you are insinuating the name is a misnomer by putting it in quotations? People need to stop assuming that all "projections" are based on crazy, seemingly arbitrary math. There are certainly some questionable ones out there that should be more heavily scrutinized but the simplest projections (like Marcels) basically do what every fan does intuitively when trying to use stats from prior seasons to guess on future performance: 1. Look at previous years' performances, weighing the most recent seasons more. 2. Regress to the mean, with the amount proportional to the amount of AB or IP the player has (we can trust the stats from a guy who has 1,800 AB over the last 3 seasons more than one who has had only 50 AB). 3. Adjust for age (a 25 year old should be expected to get better, a 35 year old is probably getting worse). Obviously, we shouldn't stop there, however. If we know more about a player (scouting information for a young prospect and recent injury history being the big two), we should also consider that. I'm not going to change my expectations for Gabe Kapler just because he says he has a new swing, though. With regard to run differential, it certainly isn't the end all, be all, but when a team wins a lot of games with a negative run differential, something is up. A team will do that for a season from time to time, but none can keep it up year in and year out. As a result, we should be very suspicious of any projection that uses Seattle's 2007 record as a jump off point.
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