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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    A myth? All the evidence I have seen suggests otherwise. Here's a very comprehensive 3 part study from 2006 that explores this topic (before the AL once again wooped up the NL in 2007): Is the AL Really Superior? (Part 1) Is the AL Really Superior? (Part 2) Is the AL Really Superior? (Part 3) Having a couple of star pitchers shifting to the NL certainly closes the gap but it doesn't nearly erase it.
  2. rluzinski
    Where I go almost every day: brewerfan.net conquerclub.com kotaku.com msnbc.com http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/
  3. rluzinski
    I have to go with chicken. White and dark meat are like two animals right off the bat.
  4. rluzinski
    Fangraphs just added the option to see the whole dataset at once. Here's the BABIP in for all hitters with at least 300 PA in 2007: LINK The top 20 last year: Name Team BABIP Matt Kemp Dodgers 0.417 B.J. Upton Devil Rays 0.399 Chone Figgins Angels 0.399 Jayson Werth Phillies 0.391 Ichiro Suzuki Mariners 0.390 Jorge Posada Yankees 0.389 Mark Reynolds Diamondbacks 0.386 Magglio Ordonez Tigers 0.385 Matt Diaz Braves 0.385 Howie Kendrick Angels 0.382 Matt Holliday Rockies 0.380 Hunter Pence Astros 0.378 Edgar Renteria Braves 0.375 Carl Crawford Devil Rays 0.375 Willy Taveras Rockies 0.371 Marlon Byrd Rangers 0.370 Norris Hopper Reds 0.369 Chase Utley Phillies 0.368 Derek Jeter Yankees 0.368 Ryan Braun Brewers 0.367
  5. rluzinski
    Fangraphs just added the option to see the whole dataset at once. Here's the BABIP in for all hitters with at least 300 PA in 2007: LINK The top 20 last year: Name Team BABIP Matt Kemp Dodgers 0.417 B.J. Upton Devil Rays 0.399 Chone Figgins Angels 0.399 Jayson Werth Phillies 0.391 Ichiro Suzuki Mariners 0.390 Jorge Posada Yankees 0.389 Mark Reynolds Diamondbacks 0.386 Magglio Ordonez Tigers 0.385 Matt Diaz Braves 0.385 Howie Kendrick Angels 0.382 Matt Holliday Rockies 0.380 Hunter Pence Astros 0.378 Edgar Renteria Braves 0.375 Carl Crawford Devil Rays 0.375 Willy Taveras Rockies 0.371 Marlon Byrd Rangers 0.370 Norris Hopper Reds 0.369 Chase Utley Phillies 0.368 Derek Jeter Yankees 0.368 Ryan Braun Brewers 0.367
  6. rluzinski
    That no trade clause ended up costing the Twins a whole lot.
  7. rluzinski
    Everyone agrees that there is a problem. Only the truly naive think that there's a clear and simple solution.
  8. rluzinski
    I simply don't believe that it's the Brewers' collective "attitude" that has caused them to struggle on the road in recent years. It just doesn't make much sense to me. How does an entire team have one, homogenous attitude, anyway? Are they taught it in the minors? How would you teach/learn such a trait, anyway? Or did simply putting on a Brewer uniform last year cause Suppan to have an ERA over a run higher on the road than at home? Of course, I can't prove my theory, just as no one else can prove the opposite. Agree to disagree I guess. I just think people are too quick to attribute qualities to an entire sports team, despite it actually being made of many, very different people.
  9. rluzinski
    A funny thing happened to me when I went to Milwaukee public schools. I wasn't a complete screw up (just half of one), so I did OK and have gone on to accomplish some spectacularly mediocre things in my life. Do I think the school system is something to boast about? Of course not. But to assume that children are bad because the school system is bad is COMPLETELY bass ackward, IMO.
  10. rluzinski
    Sometimes in baseball teams can get on a roll against splits, ie. home/away, night/day, divisional foes, etc. It's easy to make that kind of observation after the fact but beyond what these splits suggest about a team's overall skill, they have no predictive value that I am aware of. What I mean is, pick the teams that overproduced the most in the first half in a season in whatever split you want (road, night, etc...) and they generally won't continue to do so in the second half. Like every other Brewer fan, I want the Brewers to start off the season by embarrassing the Cubs on their own field. I will emotionally overreact to whatever happens, good or bad. But if we are talking objectively about the actual importance of the series to the team, relative to a 162 game schedule, it's most likely not going to matter much. One team will probably be one game ahead of the other, with 159 games to go.
  11. rluzinski
    To echo a few others... emotionally, it's very important to the fans. With regard to the chances for success in 2008, not so much.
  12. rluzinski
    I use Excel when messing with the lahman database. It's certainly more combersome than Access but it can be done. I use "Vlookup" to combine different tables and "sumif" to total up a specific player's career stats from seasonal stats. Throw in some filters and sorts and I generally can fumble my way to whatever I'm looking for. I'm sure that a database guy would cringe at that solution but I'll help you if you want to go that way.
  13. rluzinski
    In the NL in 2006, on average, a leadoff hitter saw one more fastball per 5 PA than a batter batting 5th: http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=139
  14. rluzinski
    Bucause video games are destroying our youth, just like rock and roll, dancing and bubble gum. It's an embarrassment.
  15. rluzinski
    Wow. I completely forgot about this. DAMNIT.
  16. rluzinski
    Here's how I see it. We are all basically just taking a loan out from ourselves and will have to pay interest on what we get in June. Since the rich pay at a higher tax rate, they'll have to pay back a higher percentage of the collective loan. Is that about right?
  17. rluzinski
    I don't think Sheet's health is nearly as impoirtant as ait has been in year's past. The Brewers actually have some reasonably depth in the starting pitching department. Comparing two scenarios (I'll try to be conservative): Projected IP and ERA Scenario 1: Sheets: 200 IP, 3.75 ERA Scenario 2: Sheets: 150 IP, 3.75 ERA Backup Starter: 50 IP, 4.75 ERA In scenario 2, the Brewers give up about 6 extra runs, which is a around half a win. I know that they were be some other auxilliary effects (thin bullpen for one) but we are probably talking about around 1 or 2 less wins on the high end. Not saying that's insignificant but it wouldn't be a deal breaker, either. I think the Brewers will get at least 150 from Sheets but I'm hoping for 175+. I also don't think the Cubs project anywhere near 94 wins, whether or not they finished off strong last year. I don't think you'll see any projections anywehre near that for them. And while I can see someone projecting the Cubs as better than the Brewers, it's not much of a difference. Flip a coin, as far as I am concerned.
  18. rluzinski
    Wow 14,180 posts? It seems like just yesterday we had the thread for your 10,000th post. The funny thing is, I feel like I've hardly posted this off season. I guess it's all relative.
  19. rluzinski
    I don't know how anyone can assert that he'd be the most valuable player "relative to his contract" when there are always young $400,000 players that excel. Defensively, he was arguable the best at the hardest position as a rookie. He also had good offense numbers. That's not very common at all.
  20. rluzinski
    Maybe if I "cheated" and had changed my username like some of the other regulars, I wouldn't be the "winner" of these kind of threads. That's OK, they just didn't have the heart to carry the honor/burden.
  21. rluzinski
    They'll tell you not to throw away half the data (his home split) just because you think it's tainted. We have a rough idea how parks effect performance, so we should adjust that, if necessary, not just discard it. If you took a random player that you knew nothing about and he put up the rookie season that he did, I think you'd see Tango and the gang be just as skeptical as you. But because we know he isn't just some random joe, they are more confident in believing that Tulo's performance in 2007 was representative of his true talent. I think we what we all are guilty of is not appreciating how valuable even average offense at a premium defense position is really worth. That said, I'll have to see more from Tulo before anointing him a perennial gold golver with an above average stick.
  22. rluzinski
    There's always a chance that something could motivate Fielder to accept significantly less than market value from the Brewers but I don't see it as very likely. Like any other professional, financial compensation is pretty darn important.
  23. rluzinski
    I think "practically blind" could apply as a stretch. Had you said, "practically blind in one eye", it wouldn't have been a stretch at all. It also wouldn't have been nearly as dramatic. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  24. rluzinski
    I took mediocre to mean 20-20, by definition. It obviously wasn't that bad, whatever it was. I can't imagine a guy being able to hit with one eye or fielding very well, since both require depth perception. Pitching really doesn't, however.
  25. rluzinski
    I look at this guy and I cant help but think he was a one year wonder. He had a nice 2005 as well, so he's had success for more than one year. I'd like to think that he can regain those kind of numbers.
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