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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Every defensive play that's not made (whether it should have been or not) costs about .8 runs on average and 10 runs = 1 win. What we'd need to look at is the number of plays made per opportunity above or below an average defender at his position Bruan and Tulo are at right now. From that, you can convert to runs and then wins. Of course, people aren't really concerned with the average values but the actual results. Team Canada has a nice start but ignores all non error plays (for obvious reasons). Defense has a lot of value (I bet Suppan and Cappy agree with that right now).
  2. rluzinski
    Considering both teams schedule, I still think the Cubs should be the favorites to win the division. I am really hoping for a 3 game lead heading into Atlanta on September 20th. The Cubs expected average win probability is something like 55% for each game, compared to 51% for the Brewers. Certainly the easier schedule but when it's only over 20 games, it doesn't amount to much (not even 1 win extra). Being 1 game ahead (at the time) is a bit more valuable. Really though, it's too close to act like either team has a meaningful advantage, IMO.
  3. rluzinski
    actually counsell left for two years, and then Melvin signed him for 2007. I'm quite aware of the fact that Counsell wasn't resigned right away. The point is that he still brought back. Or are you suggesting Melvin has to wait 2 years before he could resign Cappy? Personally, I think Melvin cares little about public perception. If he thinks a player is the best choice, he'll use him.
  4. rluzinski
    You could probably construct an intelligent argument supporting Tulowitzki for ROY. The offensive bar is much lower at SS than 3B for one. Second, even if Tulowitzki's defense is average for a SS, he has a clear edge over Braun. Last, When you are talking about ROY or MVP awards, counting stats do count, so Tulowitzki's advantage in that regard shouldn't be ignored. Do I think that's enough to justify picking Tulowitzki over Braun? Probably not, especially when you consider park factors. Of course, the author spent more time comparing their names than anything else, so.. wow... what an odd article.
  5. rluzinski
    It's great to see the Brewers as the favorites but when they are expected to win less than 1 extra game more than the Cubs, those odds can shift very quickly. A Cubs win today and a Brewers' lose tonight could make the Cubs the favorite again, depending on what system you use to calculate it.
  6. rluzinski
    During my junior year of college, I would work 2, 16 hour shifts on Saturday and Sunday and be off the rest of the week. Time to study and enough hours for health insurance.
  7. rluzinski
    10 home games and 10 road games left. How the Brewers would have to finish for various end-of-season records. 87-79: 14-6 85-77: 12-8 82-80: 9-11 78-84: 5-11 75-87: 2-18 You'd like to think that 85 wins would do it.
  8. rluzinski
    actually before the last home stand started i was sayng the same thing about the brewers as were many bf.netters...i have no issue with his synopsis of the team a week ago. If anyone (fans or the media) wants to predict that a sports team is "done", if the team in question then becomes the favorite only a week later, the prediction looks really, really silly.
  9. rluzinski
    Bush will most likely get rocked. It's really not that simple.
  10. rluzinski
    Crew: 9 home, 13 away, .478 combined opponents winning %, 10 games vs. .500+ teams. The Brewers have 23 games left. 10 home, 13 road. I think the Brewers have an extremely easy schedule left. There's a decent chance that the Padres will have nothing to play for by the time they play the Brewers.
  11. rluzinski
    Any new player brought up from the minors is the property of the team for at least 6 years. For players that come up midseason, often the team has exclusive rights to them for 6+ years. For the first 3 years, the player plays for about league minimum (something like $385,000 right now?). For the last 3 years, the player is arbitration eligible. Usually, the guy will get something like 33%, 66% and 100% for what they'd get on the open market for those 3 years (someone else could probably give better numbers).
  12. rluzinski
    It's all about the Brewers starting pitching. Look at their stats the past few games and they've been fantastic. Averaging 8 runs a game over the last 6 games hasn't hurt.
  13. rluzinski
    The Brewers could have clinched or have been elimintaed by the Padres series, so I'm just going to take it one game at a time.
  14. rluzinski
    ... and the Brewers get back their share of first place. They once again control their own destiny.
  15. rluzinski
    How do you explain the guys that did have their innings limited but still got hurt? Common sense?
  16. rluzinski
    Since this thread, the Brewers have won 6 of 9 and are now 3 games over. How the Brewers would have to finish for some final records: 94-68: 23-0 85-77: 14-9 82-80: 11-12 78-84: 7-16 75-87: 4-19 10 home games, 13 road games.
  17. rluzinski
    I believe Yo has a total of 155 IP this year between Nashville and Milwaukee. Sadly, that probably means we can only get 3 or so more starts out of him if they stick to the limit of 175-180. I want to say that Melvin said 180-185 IP (could be wrong though). If my poor memory serves me well and Yost limits Yo's remaining starts to 6 IP, that might be 5 more starts: Wed. 5 Houston Gallardo(1) Fri. 7 at Cincinnati Bush Sat. 8 at Cincinnati Suppan Sun. 9 at Cincinnati Sheets Mon. 10 at Pittsburgh Villanueva Tue. 11 at Pittsburgh Gallardo(2) Wed. 12 at Pittsburgh Bush Fri. 14 Cincinnati Suppan Sat. 15 Cincinnati Sheets Sun. 16 Cincinnati Villy/Vargas/Cappy Mon. 17 at Houston Gallardo(3) Tue. 18 at Houston Bush Wed. 19 at Houston Suppan Thu. 20 at Atlanta Sheets Fri. 21 at Atlanta Villy/Vargas/Cappy Sat. 22 at Atlanta Gallardo(4) Sun. 23 at Atlanta Bush Mon. 24 St. Louis Suppan Tue. 25 St. Louis Sheets Wed. 26 St. Louis Villy/Vargas/Cappy Thu. 27 San Diego Gallardo(5) Fri. 28 San Diego Bush Sat. 29 San Diego Suppan Sun. 30 San Diego Sheets
  18. rluzinski
    The seasons been over for 2 weeks but the Brewers are only 1/2 game out. What's going on!?
  19. rluzinski
    I'm making it last (I'm about 3/4s done). Wonderful game. I've really slowly made my way from area to area. There's just so much to look at in each environment.... how a singel player FRP shooter should be. I also checked and you can get $30 in a trade in and game Stop will give you an extra 20% if you put it towards halo 3. If anyone is interested, I'd be willing to sell someone my copy for $35 in about 2 weeks. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  20. rluzinski
    Mark A. is giving Yost a public vote of confidence, nothing more, IMO.
  21. rluzinski
    To me Counsell represented to a great degree the painful collapse in 04. And Melvin resigned him anyway, which should tell you how much he worries about that kind of stuff.
  22. rluzinski
    It's September and... http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/standings.jpg But I'm not supposed to be excited? Please. MLB.com Game Preview ESPN.com Game preview MLB.com Press Pass
  23. rluzinski
    Whenever I see new, very active posters, I just assume they are retreads of some sort.
  24. rluzinski
    The reason are simple we still have road games to play and they can"t win on the road Right now, the Brewers have about a one in five short of making the playoffs, according to BP. BP predictions that the Cubs will finish with just below 84 wins (after today's lose). If the Brewers can win 84 games, they probably have a 50% shot at that being good enough. 16 home games, 13 road games left. 7-6 on the road means an 11-5 record at home. I guess if you think the Brewers home/road split has everything to do with the quality of the club, it's a good thing right now, since they have more home games, right? They've played about as good at home as they have as bad on the road, after all.
  25. rluzinski
    Another day, another Cubs lose. A win by the Brewers tonight cuts the Cubs lead to 1.5 games. Any kind of hot streak by the Brewers might get them back on top...
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