rluzinski

Melvin has put little emphasis on defense during is tenure, so this is what you get. At least it's young players with the bad defense, since they can still improve.

If he isn't doing well at the All-star break next year, trade him. Just sign the players who are performing well to multi-year contracts and trade away the players doing poorly. Simple as it gets.

Coming off a finger injury and a blister, I wouldn't read too much into those velocities.

Yeh, Hart is a terrible defender.

Not sure bout that. Though Lilly had a nice second the guy is at 55 pitches and its note evn the 3rd yet. Which means the Cubs bullpen should be out and about soon enough. I'm sure he'll predict a no hitter for Lilly and 5 HRs for Soriano before this one is over.

Jones is gonna jack one here. I'm sorry you didn't get your wish.

There is no positive to the Brewers not scoring more than 2 runs in the first.

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/playoffprob.jpg A win tonight will add 7% or 8%, and a lose will subtract the same. When you are talking about one game with a 15% playoff odds swing associated with it, it's a big game. 35 pitches for Lilly. he's got to be getting tired.

There we go Mench! 27 pitches and one mound visit for Lilly, so far in the 1st.

Weeks is back!

Very nice work. I've always wanted to parse that data but never got around to it. Now you just have to find all the data available on Sheets and use it as a comparison. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif A couple of questions. First, you get two pitch speeds, right? Leaving the hand and crossing home plate? You used the "leaving the hand" velocities? I thought there's somthing like a 5 MPH difference between the two, usually. This plot definitely shows that Sheets didn't throw his changeup once during the game and got away with just two pitches. He threw at least 2 pitches very slow and with little or no no movement. Why are you so certain that neither were changeups? Graphing the release points might help you better identify pitch types. Some pitchers have some pretty distinct arm slots/hand locations for certain pitches, when you look at this stuff. Hope this isn't the last time you play with pitchFX data.

What does that even mean? Do the Cubs have the capacity to score 40% more runs, give up 40% less runs or some combination of the two? Should they be expected to win 40% more games? 40% more wins over average is 112 wins. Are the Brewers not even average in his eyes or should the Cubs have had one of the greatest records ever this year? It's a fair position to take that the Cubs have more talent but the numbers suggest that the difference is pretty small. Stone may want to divide his wild guess by 10.

Yes, Braun has a 1.000+ OPS right now because he was batting before Fielder for some time. The notion that pitchers drastically change their approach for a batter depending on the following batter is a complete myth. There are some slight differences but it's generally very suttle. I dare anyone to show otherwise.

Melvin did not sign Hall just to get rid of him after one mediocre year.

Simple as that, when Gross starts, sure. Otherwise, who do you propose hits one and two with Hall in the lineup?

Looks like different faces in the FO over the years, different short and long term plans possibly,but the same old results regarding W-L records. The Brewers have a bunch of young, high ceiling players on their team right now. You couldn't begin to say that even 3 years ago. If it's the same old same old in a couple of years, I'll be right there with you but these kids haven't even begun to get a chance to develop. If that's not good enough for you, you are going to need a new team or a new sport because the Brewers are always going to need to rely primarily on developing their own talent. They stunk for so long because they developed almost NO talent for a decade. As for Melvin being on the hot seat for not improving the team, what the heck was he supposed to do? Like there was all this talent being dangled for the taking. He needed a reliever and he got one of the biggest names available. Heck, I wish he hadn't of even done that.

I'd try and see if he'd go for a two or three year extension, with dollars similar to what he's getting now. Whether you think it's fair or not, that wouldn't even be worth the phone call. The fact is, even if Sheets averages 150 IP for the rest of his career, that's worth a contract of 4-5 years at $10 mil, starting.

I think Ennder has the rotation situation spot on. Gotta get rid of Suppan? How? Bush is no where near going and Cappy won't be going anywhere either, unless Melvin can trade him for something of value. The Brewers are about as far away from rebuilding as a franchise can get. They'll be some bullpen changeover as usual and there will be a new starting LFer. Heck, Gross could very well be the LH side of a platoon there. I agree with Rydogg mostly but trade Weeks and Vargas to upgrade 2B? It's possible that Weeks never gets close to his potential but even if he's a .775 OPS guy with a good OBP and average defense, that's not bad at 2B at all and you'll be hard pressed to improve on that in the open market. And moving Hall to the corner spot will make him virtually worthless.

I certainly didn't like the deal but worst ever? Come on. Not even close.

I'll probably wait as well but they'd have to be hopelessly out of it before I wouldn't bother borrowing the Brewers my money for a month.

Once again, I see the Brewers winning only 10 more games this year to finish at 75-87 in 5th place behind Cincy and Pittsburgh. Actually, you said, "at most" in your original statement. If you want to claim making the prediction, "once again", your prediction should be lower, by definition. And to insinuate that a prediction better than a 10-22 is "rosy" is pretty silly, IMO. Where are the realists? Bravo for having so much optimism in your heart. However, given the weary state of our pitching I can't see the Brewers winning more than 13 out of the last 32. I appreciate that the above comment was made innocently enough (the following comments aren't really directed at you) but I'm sick of people labeling anyone not willing to simply base their predictions on the terrible play of the last month as being optimistic. It seems that whenever the Brewers go on a losing streak, we are told that to project future performance, it's as simple as assuming the unexpectadly terrible play tocontinue. Does that really make sense? I was called a fool for not realizing that the Brewers were done after they were no hit in Detroit. "Look at the facts!, I was told. Then the Brewers won 9 of 10 and everyone went back to being optimistic. As for the state of our pitching, I see our worst starting pitcher hopefully being replaced by our best in a couple days. That should be a huge boost. especially after just reading his article, I'll be interested to hear Rluz's opinion here. It's hard to be objective right now, given that the team can turn this skid around and get hot at any time... Even if you look at the season as a whole, the picture isn't too bright. The Brewers have been outscorted on the season and their raw stats suggest that they are the definition of mediocre. Most preseason projections put them at around .500 as well. A very safe prediction would be 81 wins and second place, so I'll make it here. Of course, they could be a perfectly mediocre team, talentwise, and still win 84 games and make the playoffs, so there's always hope. BP puts the odds of winning the Central at 56/25/18 for the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals, respectively. I don't think people fully appreciate how much luck will play a role in who wins the NL Central. Three close games decided by three balls bouncing a particular way, could be the difference between another losing season or the playoffs for the Brewers. As cliche as it is, it really is better to be lucky than good. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

The Brewers have put themselves in a position where luck has a good chance of deciding their fate. A true .500 could easily finish 19-13 or 13-19, depending on how a few balls bounce. It's a shame the season has come to this but it's certainly a better situation than in year's past.

What kind of meaningful conversation could possibly be sparked from predicting a team will finish 10-22 (a .313 winning %), "at best". If it's an "at best" prediction, what do you think is the most likely finish, 8-24, 6-26? Why not just say you think the Brewers will finish 0-32 at best and be done with it? Shoot for the stars! If you truely, honestly, cross your heart-hope to die, believe that the Brewers have no chance of winning 11 more games, hit up Vegas and put your money where your mouth is. Bet for the Brewers to lose every game from here on out and you'll make a lot of money. Of course, if this prediction is just something you just pulled out of your butt and couldn't dream of wagering a $1 on it, why did you feel compelled to share it with us?

Garner was a good manager when Houston made the playoffs with him but now he obviously forgot how to manage. And the wheels keep on turning.

Do you honestly believe that getting rid of a manager who continues to make similar mistakes is making a change for the sake of making a change? At this point in the year, I'd hoped Yost would have learned from his past errors. People are saying that Yost should be fired because Mark A. should get mad or because sometimes a random change of the manager might help a struggling team. Those are both bad reasons to fire a manager, IMO. If there are good reasons, fine. I've already said this, though and others have corrected you when you misunderstood my previous post in a similar way. RLUZ - But what do the Brewers have to lose by making the change. I can think of a few things and I bet you could too.