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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I am excited that they are still in it but there's something to be said about the enjoyment from watching the actual games as well. I don't expect a win every game but I want to be entertained the majority of games. I haven't been entertained much lately. That said, I'll be watching and hoping, like everyone else. Sheets coming back will certainly help, no question. I still think this is an above average team.
  2. rluzinski
    Opps. Wrong thread.
  3. rluzinski
    A manager would be a fool to simply ignore Sheets' injury history. A good GM would weigh each injury and the likelihood of any reoccurring. the vestibular neuritis might be the one that might give a GM concern. The larger concern is that any free agent starting pitcher signing a long term contract is likely to miss significant playing time down the road (Zambrano being so young is a bit of an exception). It's a huge risk for a franchise. Of course, right now, 125 IP of Sheets is easily worth $10 mil a year, so it just depends on what he'd sign for. Some team will probably sign him to a contract that assumes 200 IP for 5 consecutive year, though.
  4. rluzinski
    There's no sense in calling for Cappy's head when there's no realistic alternative. As Ennder is saying, Cappy is a mediocre pitcher who's pitching a little worse than usual and has a bad defense behind him. People can use the winless record to suggest he's the worst pitcher ever but it just isn't true. If the Brewers had even a league average starting pitcher ready to jump in, I'd appreciate people wanting him replaced but they don't. Parra could take a few starts but Cappy would have to be put back in the rotation anyway.
  5. rluzinski
    The Cubs have a 7% greater chance at wining the division, according to the PECOTA version (which is the one I use). Since the Cubs are projected to average .4 more wins, I think it's fair to call it a coin flip.
  6. rluzinski
    $225 a ticket for a World Series game? Assuming they are $36 tickets, a 625% markup? In contrast, the divisional series is very reasonable ($50/ticket) and the NLCS is doable ($90/ticket).
  7. rluzinski
    100-150 AB's literally mean less than nothing. I think you might be getting a bit carried away, there. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  8. rluzinski
    Gosh, how I wish those wins from the 24-10 start had been distributed evening over the whole season. And, as Casey explained, regression works in either direction. When hardy was on pace for 100 HRs, his overall numbers predictably regressed to the mean. When Suppan and Capuano were the 'aces" of the team, they regressed and then some. Bushand Sheets regressed in the positive direction, as did Graffy and Mench to some degree. And yes, you have to look at the whole season, not just whatever sample supports your current opinion of the Brewers right now. The Brewers are 3 games over and have been outscored on the season. I think they are better than that but not by much. Of course, much of the optimism going into the season hinged on the NL Central being weak and that has certainly proven to be the case. Good play and/or luck will win the division for the Brewers. Bad play and/or luck will doom them. The playoffs are pretty much a coin flip right now. Win or lose, I just want to see some decent baseball down the stretch.
  9. rluzinski
    I didn't say that Gross was as good a defender as Hart but I think hart is well above average. Gross is a fine defender, provided you can get past one or two very bad plays he's had this year. You can't seem to and if you judge a defender based on his very best or worst plays, you probably aren't judging him very well.
  10. rluzinski
    Yes, it's a selective sample, but it's not like I took 125 scattered at-bats from various points in the season. Whenever you take the liberty of selecting the starting and end points of a sample to make it's average as high or as low as possible, you should expect it to be more extreme than a random one. Considering that the resulting numbers is a .279 OBP and an .746 OPS, that just doesn't sound that bad to me for a 125 AB selective sample. The larger issue is whether the above numbers is real evidence that we should expect Hart to continue "slumping" to begin with. It's just not very compelling, IMO. The uncertainty of a 125 AB selective sample is too large and the slump too slight. Now, if the slump is larger and/or we have other evidence that suggests lower performance, fine. Weeks is a great example. He has been fighting the effects of a previous injury and has marred in a terrible slump. Maybe Brewers' coaching staff or scouts could point out other evidence to suggest Hart is doing something that shows we should expect his struggles to continue. If it's just the numbers themselves, I don't see the benefit of benching Hart 2-3 times a week. Since Gross falls over whenever a routine ball comes to him, I suggest we keep Hart out there in RF and let Gross try to draw his walk when he bats for the pitcher in the 9th inning. The guy can play a passable CFer, so acting like he's a terrible corner outfielder doesn't add up.
  11. rluzinski
    I'm on board with a platoon until Corey gets it going. Since June 25th, Corey's hitting .232/.277/.469. It's a selective sample and it's really not that bad, anyway. Low OBP and lot's of power. You can't simply play a guy when he's hot and play a guy less when he isn't because it's all almost completely unpredictable, anyway (baring injury, of course). Gross spelling Hall and Hart against lefties a couple times a week is not a bad idea. Giving away a significant chunk of Hart's playing time away because of a bad 125 AB is not. Hart is a young, promising player who's still learning the ropes. He's not going to develop any faster on the bench.
  12. rluzinski
    It has truly been an insane last couple of weeks. I hate people that gloat because they predicted this You have to love internet predictions with nothing actually on the line.
  13. rluzinski
    I think the Cardinals are the worse team and are still trailing the Cubs, so here's to a Cards sweep.
  14. rluzinski
    I think Selig has been a mediocre commissioner and was a terrible owner.
  15. rluzinski
    My understanding is that it would only be live during a simulated game, which is usually reserved for a pitcher coming back from an injury.
  16. rluzinski
    Another thing that I'd like to point out is, if the Brewers have lost 6 games when they had a 90% chance or greater of winning, doesn't that mean they've won the other 56 times? They've lost exactly as many games as you'd expect 6 out of 62 or 10%). Now raise the threshold to 97% and I bet it gets ugly. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  17. rluzinski
    Well, statistically, we are 13th in the NL in batting average with runners in scoring position I think the average brewer fan will tell you that the Brewers' inefficient offense has cost the them numerous wins. The numbers just don't support that. As end pointed out, the Brewers' BA is only 8 points lower w/RISP than overall. That works out to around one less hit every 13 games this year. Not insignificant but the Brewers offense has scored pretty close to what you'd expect them to. According to Baseball Prospectus, they should have scored 13 more runs or about 2% less runs than expected. We are talking about maybe 1 win. If you just watch the games, it's going to feel like a heck of a lot more because you are going to remember all those darn LOB. Runner on 2nd with nobody out down 1 run, you have to bunt everytime. Let's look at the numbers: Chance of scoring at least 1 run: 1st & 2nd, 0 out: 64% 2nd & 3rd, 1 out: 70% 1st & 2nd, 1 out: 42% So if we really do what to play for the tie on the road (probably a bad idea to begin with) even if we assume 100% chance of success for the sacrifice, we only gain 6%. But with the defense positioned to combat the bunt (as they were last night), we know the chances of success are significantly lower than that. What's a reasonable guess....80-85%? And since a failed sac results in a huge drop in the probability to score at least one run, it's often not advisable to even try the bunt with a position player, especially when the defense is waiting for it.
  18. rluzinski
    With it being predicted here about a billion times now that the Cubs would run away with the division two month ago, I guess I've lost my appetite for off-the-cuff predictions, innocent or otherwise. Time for me to re-toughen up that message board skin, I guess.
  19. rluzinski
    How many times has the Brewers WPA shown we have almost no chance to lose this year? Probably a good 7 or 8 times in which we lost. anything can happen Because the Brewers have inexplicably lost several times this year has nothing to do with the Cardinals' chances. Anything can happen almost by definition but it doesn't make them anymore probable. I realize that it was a sarcastic prediction but it's been made by several posters here and much more unlikely than some around here seem to think. We are probably talking about a 1 in 50 chance right now. I guess I'm not the kind of guy to share my predictions unless I actually think they have a realistic chance of happening. Otherwise, they are just the bar room/internet type predictions no one is willing to bet a penny on. Let me know if I'm wrong. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  20. rluzinski
    I'd like to see proof that the Brewers actually have a problem doing that. I think only a 100% success rate in those situations would placate baseball fans. In reality a runner at 2B with no out and a runner at third with 1 out score about 2/3rds of the time, on average.
  21. rluzinski
    Down 4-0 in the 7th inning on the road, the Brewers come storming back. Down by one and one strike away from the game ending, Braun hits a 3 run HR. Looks like a little bit of karma has finally shifted back to the Crew. It was also nice to see Wise get his act back together. He is going to be needed down the stretch.
  22. rluzinski
    I have no problem with a manager jogging out to find out if a pitcher is fatigued. Or to review a scouting report. And here I thought my preference was for managers to limit their mound visits to discussing a pitcher's level of fatigue. Thanks for clearing that up. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  23. rluzinski
    When the Cardinals win the division (they are only 5.5 out now) But they aren't really only 5.5 games back. They are 5.5 games back on the Brewers and 5 games back on the Cubs. It would be pretty comparable to being "only" 8 games back and in second place. Even if we peg the Brewers and Cubs as .500 teams going forward, the Cardinals have almost no chance at all.
  24. rluzinski
    There's nothing wrong with the coaching staff reiterating what the players already know. There's no sense in yelling at grown adults, however.
  25. rluzinski
    The Brewers are a young team with sucky veterans - I really don't believe that they have the stuff to turn it back on. I don't think we should expect another 24-10 run but I think the starting pitching staff should be expected to perform better than it has the last couple of months. I still feel that this team is an above average team. Good enough to hold off the Cubs? I guess we'll see.
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