Jump to content
Want to get your head around free agents the WORLD CHAMPION Brewers can spend on this winter? Click here and check out our top 75 free agents ranking! ×
Brewer Fanatic

rluzinski

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,362

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I know people dont believe in that kind of stuff but I bet I can find quite a few situations where a manager was fired midseason only to see the team make an improvement. I bet about half the teams made an improvement and half the teams did worse, just like every other team. That's not proof of anything. When the ship is sinking, if you dont try to do something to fix it, you are really just waiting for the inevitable. And making changes for the sake of making changes is not how you should run a sports team, IMO.
  2. rluzinski
    The point being, that if Melvin and Attanasio believe firing Yost is the right thing to do, they won't be "gutless" about it, they'll fire him. I'm certain that's what Russ is saying. Correct. To want the owner of the team to be angry enough to fire someone is just odd. And to call him gutless if he doesn't is pretty childish, IMO. Maybe if you call Mark A. "chicken", he'll do what you want? I'd rather Brewer management make decisions with their brain, not their heart. If they decide to fire Yost, so be it. I've never really been a fan, anyway.
  3. rluzinski
    Is there any chance that Attanssio is angry enough right about now to fire Yost or is he too gutless to make the move. Yes, it takes a courageous man to make emotionally driven decisions. I bet you'd have the guts to do it!
  4. rluzinski
    The more innings you heap on Gallardo this season, the more likely it is that he gets hurt. He knows that. He's just distorting our argument to make it easier to argue against. The fact that Doug Melvin and just about every other ML organization supports the theory of limiting the innings of young arms makes his position pretty hard to defend, however.
  5. rluzinski
    Log5 equation, which compares winning percentages of 2 teams and gives a win probability for that game. I then adjust that for home/road. It's basically the same thing I do for series probabilities, more or less.
  6. rluzinski
    Here is how the home team has faired in that situation, since 1977: Expectancy: 0.464, 69 games, home team won: 32 times They've won about 46% of the time. Only 69 games in the sample, though, so I'd take that percentage with a grain of salt. Looking at run frequency: http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902score.html Bases loaded and no out, from 99-02, teams scored over 2 runs about 40% of the time and exactly 2 runs, 21% of the time. The home team wins tied, extra innings games about 52% if the time, so the probability of the home team winning in the above scenario is: 40% + .52 x 21% = 51% Run frequency assumes an average pitcher but down in the 9th, the home team often has to face the closer, which is generally an above average pitcher. I'd adjust that 51% down a bit to compensate. (edit: added text to long link --1992)
  7. rluzinski
    not that i agree with devil's advocatism, but Melvin has always been 100% honest with the media Sure, he'll lie when there is a benefit in doing so but this isn't such a case. The Brewers had a 5.5 games lead in the division when Melvin made that comment. Did you hear him talk about it? He was pretty clear about understanding the risks associated with not limiting a young pitcher's innings. He would have to do a significant amount of backtracking at this point. And man, if Yo did get hurt (for any reason), Melvin would never hear the end of it. I don't think he can take it back. Maddux seems to think the Brewers may be willing to throw Gallardo out there past his innings limit. I think it would be a mistake if they went much over that limit. Yo has maybe 35 IP and 5 starts before he's capped. Maybe they give him an extra start or two but it would be very hard for me to imagine Yo pitching game to in the first round of the playoffs.
  8. rluzinski
    Make a model of something, run it a whole bunch of times and average the results: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method So, I estimated the probability of the Brewers winning each of their first 126 games, simulated a season 10,000 times and foudn the average numbers of wins, average longest streak, average best 10 game streak, etc... I use a free excel addin that makes it easy.
  9. rluzinski
    Googles Spreadsheet is awesome. For anyone interested, ere's some work I'm doing about team streakiness for an upcoming article: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pjOhZzPpnP_M-TV8eN8sGBA
  10. rluzinski
    http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pjOhZzPpnP_OwpY6ZQWVbDQ Do I have to "invite" people to allow them to be able to use the spreadsheet? I've never used this feature before.
  11. rluzinski
    Not to mention that Jenkins was one of the most clutch batters in the league last year. But again, I don't think hauser is basing his feelings of Jenkins on facts.
  12. rluzinski
    Thinks aren't always as simple as the media presents them. It's easy to look at his winless streak and conclude Cappy has sucked but it's just not a fair assessment. Capuano has had no run support and a terrible defense behind him all year. Fora mediocre pitcher like Cappy, the winless streak really isn't that surprising when everything is considered. Has he been good? No but he hasn't been that bad, either.
  13. rluzinski
    Livian throws more junk than Cirillo did yesterday. Brewers hitting some balls hard and right at people. Of course, all the weak groundballs found holes, so hard to complain.
  14. rluzinski
    Melvin has already made clear that he's strictly limiting Yo's innings this year, so why are some pretending that it isn't going to happen?
  15. rluzinski
    While they certainly have some talent, I think they've also gotten their share of luck. I wouldn't be surprised if they played below .500 the rest of the way.
  16. rluzinski
    Maybe not a good start, but it doesn't mean he wasn't pitching ok, which is what Yost said. Agreed. It's really tough to judge performance based on one start. Of course, Cappy is being judged on far more than that. Still, I can't imagine Cappy not being in the rotation down the stretch.
  17. rluzinski
    http://www.fangraphs.com/lgraphs/270820129_Brewers_Diamondbacks_40019121_lbig.png
  18. rluzinski
    This is a test and I shall pass! I think Melvin is going to need to adjust the amount of emphasis he's placed on defense.
  19. rluzinski
    Some people just need a single person to blame. I guess it makes them feel better or something. Don't see how you can say he cost us the season though if we just barely miss the playoffs his injury most certainly plays a role in it. If it's close, you could say that about any player that missed time and/or played below their expectations. Hall, Suppan, Cappy, Bush, Sheets, Estrada, Mench.... Me? I blame Robin Yount.
  20. rluzinski
    It is unbelievable to think that a win would give the Brewers a share of first place. It's good to be in the NL Central!
  21. rluzinski
    He got through 5 innings, so at least he got his work in. I still think him returning for the Cubs' series is a real possibility.
  22. rluzinski
    Wait, you didn't test out of every math class offered at your college? How dare you mislead us all!
  23. rluzinski
    Jenkins, Hardy and Gross are all hitting well right now. If this darn team can stay at least within 2-3 games of first place by the time Sheets comes back, the Crew still has a reasonable shot. Obviously, things are going to have to go much better on this road trip, however.
  24. rluzinski
    It's hard for some people to accept that some baseball fans look at more than just the last month of performance from a player to set their expectations. If that Gwynn thread is still around, you'll see a lot of people (such as myself) that were amazed that anyone would think Gwynn had more offensive value than Gross. You'd also see a lot of "Gross is hitting below .200! He suxors!" posts. I'm not convinced that Gross has the stuff to be an everyday starter but he deserves to be on someone's 25 man roster.
  25. rluzinski
    HebrewHammer, great analysis. That is what I suspected. Cappy does not have the stuff to make pitches when he's behind in the count. Thank you for eliminating this BABIP/Luck crap. He proved that BABIP is controled by both the pitcher, batter and defense. Of course, you got out of it exactly what you wanted to, which is rather disturbing.
×
×
  • Create New...