rluzinski

This year is "the year?" Why? Because I've waited patiently for 15 years to say that with a straight face. Calling next year "the year" is a Cubs tradition. So, this this is the year because you want it to be? Why didn't we think of that 25 years ago! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif I dunno, in my informal studies done for fantasy purposes most players seem to K more, BB less and not be as good at situational hitting when they first get into the league. They k less, walk more and hit for more power as they age: LINK Not sure about the situational hitting part, although it certainly sounds reasonable. According to that linked table, a player's BA has a tendency to get lower every year after their rookie year, on average, however. They also have more problems dealing with a slump as it seems more common for a rookie to just fall off a cliff than it is for a more established player. I've always heard that rookie hitters have the tendency to fade at the end of the year (not being used to the long season is the general theory) but I wonder if there's any truth to it. The problem is, they haven't really established an expected level of performance to begin with. If Braun doesn't continue hitting at a 1.000 OPS level, some might say he faded, I would say that he probably was just coming back down to reality.

The other problem is when your OBP is BA driven is that when you are not hitting you are not helping the team. I'd sacrifice a possibly slightly larger spread in game-by-game performance for the total numbers Ichiro brings. He really upped his value to the team when he was moved to CF (I assume he's handled the transition well?) My only concern is a guy with Ichiro's skill set might not age as well? He seems to break all the rules, though, so I guess we'll see.

The value of all batting events are dependent on the number of outs, number of base runners, inning, score, etc... A grand slam when your team is up by 8 in the 9th has almost no value. A walk in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th with a runner at 3rd and 1 out has negative value. When estimating the value of a player and his tool set, we generally look at the average value of his skills, though, since baseball doesn't really allow you to pick and choose the best player for each situation that comes up. That sure would make it pretty interesting if you could. Each time through the lineup, everyone has to bat once but the order can be decided on the fly. Hart and Hardy make outs to start off the game? Might as well bat the pitcher and save Braun for for when a runner might be on next inning. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

My theory is that people say "consistent" because the players are still having some good AB / starts but just have too many mediocre or bad ones. The better you are, the more "good" performances you'll have and the more consistent you'll appear? Young players / teams have a tendency to get better but their spread of performances from day to day probably isn't any different than a vet. Just my gut feeling, at least.

we still have a lot of young guys who are going to get more consistent as they reach their prime years. I hear it used a lot by baseball fans but what does it mean to have a player who's consistent and why do people assume vets are more consistent? Average performance, spread of day to day performance? I just think our young players will get better.

Assuming a league average home road split (on average a team wins 54% of their home games, the Brewers "should" have a road record of around 23-22, instead of their actual 19 - 26 road record. The reason? It could have something to do with: * the relative strength of the opponents * relative strength of the Brewer players (if Braun played more home games, for instance) * the young players simply perform better at home * the Brewers actually over performing at home, relative to their true abilities (maybe they are feeding off those great milwaukee fans!) * luck * other *some combination of all of them. I don't know that luck was the sole reason but I do know that you can't say luck couldn't be the sole reason. A team that should have won 23 out of their 45 games has a 13% chance of 19 or less wins due to pure chance, after all. Do I think it's only due to luck? Probably not. I don't think the road record suggests some huge, systematic issue with the entire team, either. Look at it this way. Here's Coco's home/road split this year: home: 0.41 ERA, 17 of 17 in save opps. road: 7.11 ERA, 10 of 13 in save opps., 2 losses We have no reason to believe that Coco should be expected to perform much poorer on the road than at home, so I consider the above split most likely a coincidence. If Coco hadn't gotten blown up twice on the road, the Brewers would have a 21-24 road record. Still below our expectations but not by much. We probably wouldn't be making a big deal out of it, at the very least. Again, I'm not saying I know why the Brewers have done poorly on the road but the significance of it is being blown out of proportion, IMO. I don't think he should expect the Brewers to be as bad on the road, relative to their overall record, in the second half. My question is: Why do people say that young teams have trouble on the road? Are there stats for this? I've never seen any, although it would be interesting to see such a study.

Russ, are you being sarcastic? This is just statistical noise. I would say the split to look at and try to fix is home/road. 1. My split is almost certainly entirely statistical noise: 2. The extreme home / road split could also be entirely statistical noise (although no one knows) and isn't even close to being statistically significant. The point is, it's very easy to find all sorts of extreme splits. In fact, it would be more unlikely to be able to NOT find an extreme split, whether at the team or individual level. The tough part is determining if it tells you anything. I see all sorts of reasons being suggested for the home road split but no one seems willing to entertain "luck" as being all or part of the explanation. It's obviously not the only explanation but it should be considered.

I think my wife likes my friends more than I do.

B.S. Mechanical Engineering and B.S. Aeronautical Engineering, University of California, Davis I think I'm in love. I hope everyone discussing this has googled, "Allison Stokke", because it's kind of creepy what you'll find.

What concerns me as a Brewer Fan is Pujols being angry and probably feels like he has something to prove coming out of the gates in the second half. I could see him ripping off 8+ homers to close out this month... You think his HR drought has to do with lack of desire?

I think LOB is more dependant on the guys hitting behind you than on the baserunner himself. Significantly more.

Then why are they only .500 on Wednesdays!?

Is this their problem? http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/weekdaysplit1.jpg Broken down each day of the week: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/weekdaysplit2.jpg My thoughts: LINK Obviously unacceptable. The question is, what do you do about it?

Fans have every right to expect management to at least attempt to fix obvious problems. But the Brewers seem content to keep the status quo while their lead dwindles nearly on a daily basis. Not all fans are convinced that making a move like the one suggested in this thread would even help the team right now. Melvin apparently shares that sentiment thus far. Fans have a tendency to panic and personnel moves are the first thing they start demanding. Melvin shouldn't be making moves just to make moves. I'm confident that if an opportunity presents itself to Melvin that improves this team, he won't be hesitant to pull the trigger.

Melvin may have been trying to move Vargas for weeks now, for all we know. If he can't free up a starting spot via a trade, I'd leave it the way it is right now. I think the Brewers would gain little by swapping Vargas's and Villy's roles.

I take it as base advancement issues (going for 1 -> 3 on a single, or scoring from 2 on a single are bigs ones). I also see it as meaning that a slow base runner will hinder the base runner's advancement behind him. I think that affect is pretty darn insignificant, though.

Below average base advancement (what stat guys would call clogging the base paths) obviously hurts but it would never be able to completely negate the advantage of a great OBP. The Big Hurt is one of the worst base runners, in terms of base running, but he's still an asset to his offense, however. This guy likes to study base running: LINK

By no means is Suppan not a valuable pitcher but he was over payed, in comparison to his value, as pretty much all free agents are (especially pitchers). And the "it's not my money" works just fine, provided the funds aren't capped when someone with a lot more value could be had.

Travis Hafner does not belong in any discussion about the Hall of Fame. Not even one that says he shouldn't be in it? Interesting. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

It has been a very good year so far, but I am going to argue that we have a much better shot at being a contender next year because of several factors I think the Brewers will probably have more overall talent next year but I also think that the second best team in the NL next year won't be only 1 game over .500. The Brewers have about an 80% shot at making the playoffs right now. I think they'd be hard pressed to have a greater chance at the post season going into the 2008 season. I'm not sure if any team would. You summed up my thoughts pretty well. I was adamant on here before the season started, that I was tired of hearing "Well, this year will be a growth year, We all are but that doesn't mean it's not necessarily true, nor does it really address the question posed in this thread. As a fan, I want every year to be "the year". A GM can't think that way, however.

and mlb.com home pages aren't practical to load on dial-up They have a narrowband version, just so you know.

EDR, correct me if I'm wrong, but there's a sizable population of Japanese origin that reside in Seattle, right? I thought they were even broadcasting Mariner games in Japan at one point?

Even your own link says, "deal will approach $100 million", so saying 5/$100 mil isn't even true. I'm not looking for something to nitpick. I didn't even realize this wasn't a done deal until they mentioned as much during the All Star telecast. Yes, I rely on bf.net that much.

Ichiro is the poster child for not using OPS as the end all, be all.

This title is very misleading.