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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    The problem with the aggressive pinch hitting Russ is that with those extreme splits the other manager can always comeback and get you at an extreme disadvantage the other way by subbing in again latter in the game. I wouldn't want Yost to pinch hit Mench for Jenkins. I'd rather he use that decent, young RH corner outfielder that Melvin is going to trade for soon. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  2. rluzinski
    His run support has been good, but it has been the same as Ben Sheets run support this year (5.5 vs. 5.4). They both have gotten insanely good run support this year (min 80 IP): LINK That has helped both their records immensely. Baseball Prospectus calculates the expected records for starting pitchers, assuming they get average run support and (I believe) average relief help. Sheets' expected record is 11-8. Vargas's expected record is 5.0-4.3. In Vargas's 15 starts, the Brewers offense has scored 7 or more runs, 6 times and 5 or more runs 8 times. They better have a good record in those games. That said, I'm not complaining that the Brewers' #5 pitcher has a 4.52 ERA. I'm a little concerned that his ERA has a bit of good luck in there and that the length of his starts have been relatively short but overall, it's hard to complain so far.
  3. rluzinski
    but we've gotten the the stage of the game where his most recent performances is likely to tell us a lot more about the future then what he did 2 years ago. Combine that with a guy who's kind of at the margin to begin with and it's not difficult to change ones mind over the course of a few months. I agree that what he did as a rookie is irrelevant these days (I was being dramatic http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ) but take a look at Jenkins' Marcel projection (uses 3 most recent seasons, weighted and regressed: .275 / .351 / .465 / .815 His 2007 season actually lowers his current projection and since he's only on pace for about another 100 AB, it's not going to have much effect either way. The fact he'll be a year older will probably have a larger effect on his projection. If Jenkins never started against lefties and was almost always pinch hit for against a lefty reliever, you could get his PAs against lefties way down. Of course, Yost doesn't have the personnel to do that and even if he did, he's proven to be reluctant to do such a thing. It is possible, however and his splits justify it. That I think is too much ground to make up in the long run and is moreso why I think platooning these guys is not the best solution for next year. Agreed, although I'd probably say the same thing even if Jenkins finishes 2007 with a .900 OPS.
  4. rluzinski
    I'm not a big fan of pictures for sigs but this one is great: http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c194/vh2k6/1183534118797.gif
  5. rluzinski
    You can't expect everyone to share your same measured, unemotional response to this. Some only care to predict/discuss the team's reaction to the injury, some come to vent, others come to vent at the venters. That's cool. I don't expect every post to be stripped of all emotion. Hell, I have emotional responses to the goings of this team all the time. My personal preference is for it not to become on of the the primary purposes of these boards, however. If you go to other Brewer message boards, the majority of threads are either ripping Brewer players to shreds with childish puns (TurnBLOW!!!! JenKKKKins LOL!!!) or people constantly predicting a Brewer collapse (The Brewers will lose their 3.5 game lead in 2 days!). If that's really how people want to enjoy the Brewers, they don't even need to come here to do it. If someone wants to complain, let them and let it pass. Provided it's not getting in the the way of a real discussion, that's exactly what I should do. Knowing is half the battle, right? What if they find the severity of sheets to be out more than 6 weeks. Do they try and find a good SP or do they not make anymoves at all? I don't think a move would be absolutely necessary but I could see Melvin getting another reliever so that he can easily free Villy up for the rotation.
  6. rluzinski
    Jenkins is nothing special but he's still hitting righties OK: .270 / 339 / .495 / .834 Jenkins should almost never be facing lefties. Yost is partly at fault but so is Melvin. The team needs another RH corner outfielder, so Yost can pinch hit him for Jenkins late in the game. And if a person is changing their mind every couple of months about whether a player's option year should be picked up or not, they probably aren't looking at a large enough sample. Jenkins has over 4,000 major league AB. We should have a pretty good idea what kind of performance to expect form him. My opinion is that Jenkins' option year should not be picked up and that won't change no matter what Jenkins does for the rest of this year.
  7. rluzinski
    I wonder if we weren't far away from Yo being inserted into the rotation for good, anyway. August 1 might have been circled on Melvin's calender all along.
  8. rluzinski
    Sheets getting hurt now is a lot better than Sheets getting hurt in September, though. If Melvin isn't going to have Yo in late September, it's better to know that now than after he trades Vargas, or whatever.
  9. rluzinski
    LINK
  10. rluzinski
    What is the metric trying to measure exactly? If it's straight "closer performance", why do you even need ERA? It should just be the percentage of saves that were converted, with some min. IP stipulation. To use straight saves ignores blown saves and is heavily distorted by opportunity. Here's an example for a season: Player A: 40 of 50 saves converted, 4.0 ERA, 10.0 SERA Player B: 23 of 24 saves converted, 2.5 ERA, 9.2 SERA Was player A's performance really better?
  11. rluzinski
    I can't see how it isn't physical to some degree.
  12. rluzinski
    LINK I sure hope that's good information.
  13. rluzinski
    Don't look now but Jenkins is down to .255, Gwynn down to .278 and Weeks gown to .217... Thank goodness for the first 6 hitters.. hopefully Billy is healthy this weekend. Estrada has a .737 OPS and a sub .300 OBP, so he shouldn't escape your criticism.
  14. rluzinski
    Turnbow is throwing his off speed stuff for strikes, which is usually a good sign.
  15. rluzinski
    Yeh, 4 runs in 7 innings is just terrible.
  16. rluzinski
    I really wish Yost used Shouse as a true LOOGY....
  17. rluzinski
    I hate people want to pull the starting pitcher when he has 80 pitches but with 94, you may not even get another inning anyway. Yost probably was hoping Bush could handle the bottom of the order.
  18. rluzinski
    I remember when I would cringe at seeing Graffy in the lineup at 2nd. Now... The problem is that Graffy is 35 and has been terrible as well.
  19. rluzinski
    For some, injury prone just means, "having several injuries in a short time." Others take it to mean, "having a higher probability of injury in the future." Still other think that's one in the same. In the end, it's just a subjective label, like "ace". Probably not worth arguing about.
  20. rluzinski
    You were relieved to hear that instead of missing 3-4 starts, he'll likely be missing somewhere between 4-10? I was guessing 4 starts / 3 weeks to begin with, so it just didn't sound that bad to me. I knew he was having the MRI today, so I was happy to hear that while he may miss 6 weeks at most, he has a good chance of coming back much sooner. Glass half empty/full thing, I guess. Hopefully my optimism proves warranted.
  21. rluzinski
    I agree that their value is overstated. To be fair though, they are usually used against tough lefties in high leverage situations (a bunch of runners on and/or late in a close game), so that ups the value of that one AB. Still, I there are plenty of good RH relievers who can get lefties out as good or better than the average left handed reliever and they can get more than one out. If I were a manager, I'd like to have one but I don't think it's a must have.
  22. rluzinski
    All he did was vent, which is a significant part of what this forum is all about. I came to this forum to escape the constant emotional rants of angry fans from all the other Brewer message boards. I'd rather discuss the implications of Sheets' injury, not tell everyone how angry he makes me for letting me down, once again. We all get frustrated at times but If that's what this forum is supposed to be about to any significant degree Tear, of the distal tendon. He'll have an ultrasound tom. If it's just a slight tear, he'll be out about two weeks. If it's more severe, 4 to 6 weeks. No surgery is involved. Torn tendon..... oh dear. I had the exact opposite reaction. If Coshun's explanation was sound, it sounded pretty promising. I was afraid we'd hear, "season ending".
  23. rluzinski
    I don't like Bonds either, which is why I don't care what he has to say about anything. Same thing goes with Sheffield.
  24. rluzinski
    This is just getting comical. If you don't like Bonds, ignore him. Who cares what he says? People are just waiting for him to do anything so they can point and say how much they hate him. It's only a story because the media and some fans want it to be.
  25. rluzinski
    It's not necessarily ignorance. Most politicians are willing to spew whatever nonsense they think we help their popularity. They take advantage of the ignorant, emotional masses.
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