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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    How come hitting yourself to 2B while also moving existing runners arround the bases is less imporant than getting to first and then stealing a base without moving anyone else over? It's a logical nightmare when you think about it. If your goal is to measure the players who best the stereotype of a good leadoff hitter, than you might be on the right track. You need to weight OBP and SB% better, however. .060 is the difference between a horrible and great OBP. for SB%, .25 is maybe the diff. between poor and good. Also, OBP is just WAY more important to begin with. I'd zero SB% to .66. Anything less than that and you are probably hurting your team. Maybe something like this: LO = OBP + [(SB% - .66)/2] .350 OBP .75 SB% LO = .440 .325 OBP .60 SB% LO = .295 You need to set some kind of min SB attempts too. Maybe 1 SB attempt for every 15 AB?
  2. rluzinski
    I'm sure we'll see Dwight next week.
  3. rluzinski
    That lineup tool he uses to calculate runs/game is just plain wrong. I think I wrote about it on my blog somewhere but it just doesn't work and I'm not the only one to say that. I've had a hard time translating projections to a runs/game value. You have to estimate AB for every player, also making sure PA translates to OBP. I ended up writing a very crude simulator in excel but it's not exactly ready for prime time. Tnagotiger was talking about releasing one publically a couple months ago... not sure what happened to that.
  4. rluzinski
    Looks like it would cost money but if it's reasonable, I'd get it.
  5. rluzinski
    What kind of sorting do you want it to do? Excel can sort them by whatever is there. As for using them for fantasy picks, they are very nice for established vets but for young guys without much of a track record, not so much. The reliability column will reflect that. The higher that number is, the more likely the players stats are reflective of his actual ability. kepp in mind that park factors aren't considered, so you will have to adjust accordingly.
  6. rluzinski
    Here's a link to a nice Hardball Times article about the statistical regression and how it pertains to Marcel projections: But I Regress? It's written in layman's terms, so it should shed some light on what Marcels is trying to do.
  7. rluzinski
    If big names paid for themselves in additional fan interest, teams would pay more for them. All I've ever read is that winning draws fans, not superstars.
  8. rluzinski
    Yeh, I'm wondering if James just messed around with the numbers until they made sense, or if each component is weighed what they are for a reason. Casey, what kind of data link is that? All the info is in the link itself? I've never seen something like that.
  9. rluzinski
    Yeh, considering this thread is about his work and already had multiple links to his site as it is, I don't exactly see the conflict. I assure you, he doesn't need our message board to get hits. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif EDIT: At the link showing the Marcel methodology (I linked to it in the second post), he says: That might give people a better idea of what he is trying to accomplish in the first place.
  10. rluzinski
    To format your tables: Paste this into MS notepad and get everything lined up with spaces (not tabs). Then paste back in your post and put the code tags before and after. Then it will look all perty.
  11. rluzinski
    It's almost like an ad for SP depth. Or it shows how well a healthy rotation for an entire year can do.
  12. rluzinski
    Considering Pujols is something like 6 wins above average (I don't remember exactly), there's no reason to act like a 2 win difference is insignificant.
  13. rluzinski
    Yes, Marcels use only MLB stats, so projections of the young guys are pretty bare bones. If you download the full spreadsheet, it includes a reliability column which is basically tied to sample size. He's basically assuming Prince will only get better by a league average amount a player like him would improve. Prince is not a league average player, however. The more AB a player has at the MLB level, the more his performance is likely to represent his actual abilities. I like marcels because it's completely objective. Since we know more about these guys than Marcels does, we can adjust accordingly. Also, Counsell's projections are based primarily from stats he accumulated at a hitter's park. His projected numbers at Miller Park would be lower. Same for Estrada.
  14. rluzinski
    I was going to post this on my blog but didn't get around to it. Here are the Marcel projections for Brewer hitters in 2007: [b] BA OBP SLG OPS[/b] Jenkins .275 .351 .465 .816 Fielder .285 .357 .493 .850 Weeks .274 .359 .426 .784 Hardy .264 .337 .424 .760 Koskie .256 .338 .450 .788 Estrada .289 .336 .422 .757 Miller .260 .329 .404 .732 Hall .276 .338 .498 .836 Hart .277 .336 .462 .798 Gross .265 .353 .433 .786 Counsell .252 .333 .362 .695 Graffanino .278 .344 .401 .745 Clark .282 .359 .399 .758This is one of my favorite projection systems since it's the simplest and gives up only a small amount of accuracy to do so. These numbers aren't park adjusted, so projections from a guy like Estrada (who's been playing in a hitter's pack) will be inflated). Ray, when given h, d, t, and hr, the SLG equation should be: SLG = [h + d + (2 x t) + (3 x HR)]/AB EDIT: Here's the methodolgy behind these projections: LINK
  15. rluzinski
    I think that with the ERA and ERA + numbers that you can conclude that the Brewers have a above average pitching staff Just keep in mind that, unless you assume zero missed starts by the starting rotation for the entire year, an average starting rotation will likely get below average production for the year. The only way it wouldn't happen is if their injury replacements end up being better than their expected production). I'd be interested to see how many starts are lost to injury in a 162 game season on average. 10%? Greater?
  16. rluzinski
    If we ever want to plan for a weekend roadtrip, Wrigley on a weekend sure sounds like fun. Turn that place into Miller south. Ticket prices might hurt?
  17. rluzinski
    How about brewerfan.net's involvement with the local radio station?
  18. rluzinski
    What it tells me is that very few teams have any depth at all. As soon as someone goes down, they are lost, and like the Crew, have to settle for kids that re not ready. Or Lima.
  19. rluzinski
    When you're given a sample of 4860 starts throughout the league, ERA will do fine. I'd agree with that. Things like, the subjectiveness of errors, BABIP and left-on-base % all kind of balance themselves out in the aggregate.
  20. rluzinski
    Very nice. Someone here posted ERA+ averages for each spot in the rotation and it seemed to show the same thing (back end of rotations stink). I don't think he should assume every spot in the rotation get's one-fifth of the starts, however. Also, the #5 spot looks so bad because a significant number of those innings were actually accumulated by a #6 or #7 pitcher. So, comparing a pre-seaon rotation to those averages is a little misleading, especially for the backend of the rotation. So, resist the urge! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  21. rluzinski
    Doesn't Johnson have almost negative value at $16 mil? You wouldn't think the DBacks would have to give much of anything back.
  22. rluzinski
    No thanks. Sheets is just too valuable and is cheap for 2 more years.
  23. rluzinski
    Summary: A team needs balance. Correlating steals to winning percentage doesn't prove anything, IMO. I mean, teams with more base runners are going to generally have more steal opportunities to begin with. Also, pitching plays a huge part of winning % and you are completely ignoring it. I've just never seen any proof that a balanced offense scores more runs than one that "just" gets on base and hits for power. Run estimators can pretty much ignore steals without losing much accuracy. Speed is a nice thing to have but not at the expense of getting on base or power.
  24. rluzinski
    The point of most statistical work is to attempt to judge a player's true skill level, so you can more accurately project is performance in the future. I "predicted" Turnbow would regress HERE, although I obviously didn't realize he would forget how to throw a strike http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif You'll also see a number of predictions that did not come true. Projections are still just an educated guess.
  25. rluzinski
    Thanks for that pre-off season quote. I knew he had said that stuff with regard to Estrada but couldn't really remember him talking about it before then. That's a really silly comment by Melvin. It's like saying, "If everyone gets more hits, we'll score more runs. Strikeouts are a by product of trying to do something good. If you try NOT to strikeout, you have to be sacrificing something else. It's obviously a risk/reward type thing.
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