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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    You think he's going to be cheap?
  2. rluzinski
    One other thing I'd like to point out about ZiPS or really any projection system. I always hear how a certain projection system doesn't project pitchers very well. I would counter that, if you a projected ERA is your aim, all projection systems are destined to fail. ERA is affected by many things more or less outside the control of the pitcher. Defense, of course, if a huge part of that equation. Just a small difference in BABIP (batting average of balls in play) has a significant change in ERA. Second, WHEN it's occur can have a huge effect on ERA. Many pitcher's LOB% (left on base %) jump all over the place from year to year, and so does their ERA. Finally, trying to project relievers from year to year is generally a waste of time. If a guy has less than 80 IP, luck plays a huge part in his final ERA numbers. Just a nice early morning ramble to start the day http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  3. rluzinski
    I thought ZiPS was just a weighted average of the last few years, regressed and with age and park factors. Similar to Tangotigers "marcel" projections. It's obviously going to work better with vets and with guys who play full time. No one has a crystal ball. This is just an educated guess.
  4. rluzinski
    I think mopst people don't want Roberts or Pods.
  5. rluzinski
    People make the Reggie White comparison every year. I don't see much point in comparing football to baseball.
  6. rluzinski
    Rivera has a very poor arm and not a very good track record with the stick. I'd rather just stick with Miller. He might actually hit better if he only needs to start 50 games.
  7. rluzinski
    That deal is a lot less silly than some of the other deals floating around. Shilling is easily worth $10 mil a year and 3 years is very reasonable.
  8. rluzinski
    Sometimes I wonder if the perception of the Brewers by free agents is that the Crew are always going to be a below average team and unwilling to spend and hence don't ever consider this team as able to build a winner despite the young talent around. Milwaukee as a city is simply not an appealing place for a guy to play in.
  9. rluzinski
    If Melvin trades Jenkins for Pods I think I would vomit. His defense was terrible years ago. He has negative value.
  10. rluzinski
    Here's a link to their Event File page: Play-by-Play Data Files (Event Files) HERE is a direct link to step-by-step instuctions. From those instructions: "The purpose of BEVENT is to prepare a report of a game in a format that is suitable for importing into a database or spreadsheet. It would be reasonable to think of BEVENT functioning as a parser to extract information from the event file and report the game state after each play." So, download the BEVENT program and the PBP data from the years and you are interested in. Run the data through BEVENT and then load that data into a database or spreadsheet. I've used Excel but you really should use a database. It can be a cumbersome process to use BEVENT but a simple batch file can streamline the process. Let me know if you have any other questions.
  11. rluzinski
    Video games + beer + fun for all
  12. rluzinski
    Nintendon't: The case against the Wii. According to this, it's not that the remote couldn't sense more sophistacted movements, it's just that they don't want it to? I'm personally not interested in motion sensing inputs that boil down to flicking a wrist. I love the idea of using physical inputs to play video games but I want more than this.
  13. rluzinski
    I think the stables bit was a little bit of fun from NBC to stay in theme last night... You did notice the Staples commercial right after the product placement, didn't you?
  14. rluzinski
    My roomates want to get a Wii and are planning to simply show up about 2 hrs before the store opens step to the front of the line, deal with any hasseling and then make a run for the Wii. Would there be anything wrong with this (besides morally)? You're lame for even associating with people like that. I'm 29 years old (for one more day http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ) and waited overnight for a 360 (no, i wouldn't do it again but it was an interesting experience). I can assure you if your two "special" buddies had shown up to flex their muscles, I wouldn't have been the only one showing them the curb. They would have gotten stomped, even if it was with a bunch of Mountain Dews and DS lites. The non-macho answer is that even if your 2 buddies are such bad asses that they could physically intimidate the 30+ people in line, they'd be called out the second the doors opened. There will be retailer employees right at the door.
  15. rluzinski
    Still liked it a lot but was the only one that thought Michael was a little TOO over the top? I mean, I thought he was just a wierd guy that sometimes did crazy stuff. Seemed like he never stopped being unbelievable this episode.
  16. rluzinski
    There's no way you are going to find that already laid out for you. You'd have to download the gamelogs from retrosheet.org and parse the data yourself.
  17. rluzinski
    For pitchers that are pitching with no on or 2 out?
  18. rluzinski
    If it's everybody and their sister's idea to buy a PS3 and then sell it on eBay, then there won't as much profit as anticipated. The launch supply of the PS3 is a tiny fraction of the actual demand (I think it's 80,000 for North America). If every single launch PS3 were placed on Ebay, they'd still cost more than retail price.
  19. rluzinski
    I made over $200 profit selling the 360 on Ebay. The demand for a PS3 will be MUCH higher. People in Japan were hiring poor Chinese people to wait in line!
  20. rluzinski
    i'm much more intrigued by the back catalogue on the virtual console on the wii Provided the prices are reasonable (under $10) I can't disagree. My point wasn't that the 360 was "better" than the wii, just that there is way more than just "sports games and FPS" on the 360. If you have no interest in the multimedia capabilties of the 360 and could care less about graphics, the wii is a no brainer. ...especially since many are available on other systems or the internet... Considering EVERY wii "back catalogue" game is available on another system by definition (not to mention most are available online for free), I find that comment a bit confusing http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  21. rluzinski
    and unless you really like shooting things and playing sports games, the 360 doesn't have much to offer.. That was a HUGE problem with the original Xbox but not even close to true about the 360. Xbox Arcade has allowed MS to really diversify the 360 lineup (and most are $5-$10). Some of the most popular right now: ? Contra ? UNO (camera and voice support) ? Ultimate Mortal Kombat 3 ? Texas Hold 'em ? Geometry Wars Evolved ? Hexic HD ? LUMINES LIVE! ? DOOM ? Street Fighter II' Hyper Fighting ? Bankshot Billiards 2 ? Marble Blast Ultra ? Bejeweled 2 You can also download a demo of every Xbox Arcade game for free. My concern with the motion controls of the wii is the precision of the whole thing. It doesn't sound like it can pick up smaller movements very accurately and I'm worried that it acts more like a button push than anything else. I hope those concerns prove to be unfounded, since the wii could really revolutionize video game interfacing.
  22. rluzinski
    Seriously, how many friends could you possibly have that have both demo'd a system that isn't even out yet in US AND own a 360? And Sony has a whole has been doing terrible financially, so I'm not sure if I'd be jumping on that "buy stock" bandwagon just yet. To get back on topic, reviews for wii sports and the new Zelda are starting to trickle in. Here's a good place to keep track of them: Wii Sports - WII The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess Zelda = great, wii sports = meh?
  23. rluzinski
    There are plenty of next-gen games that I'd like to play....but they're seemingly all multi-platform. Gears of War And what about Viva Pinata! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Plus, I think the XBox 360 is eventually going to ship a larger Hard Drive....such that it's not worth it to put down $100 for one right now.) That's a fair point, although you could just buy the core and get a hard drive later. I'm pretty sure I'll end up with a 360 and a wii. I'm just not paying $250 for an overclocked gamecube.
  24. rluzinski
    $249 for the Wii, $49 for Zelda If you want a second remote with the nunchuk attachment, it will cost you an additional $60. I think I'll eventually get the wii (I bought a gamecube for my parents and was very impressed) but $250 is too much, IMO. I'll wait the year or so, when it's under $200.
  25. rluzinski
    Got a bottle of cheap brandy and some Gears of War. O, it's on.
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