One other thing I'd like to point out about ZiPS or really any projection system. I always hear how a certain projection system doesn't project pitchers very well. I would counter that, if you a projected ERA is your aim, all projection systems are destined to fail. ERA is affected by many things more or less outside the control of the pitcher. Defense, of course, if a huge part of that equation. Just a small difference in BABIP (batting average of balls in play) has a significant change in ERA. Second, WHEN it's occur can have a huge effect on ERA. Many pitcher's LOB% (left on base %) jump all over the place from year to year, and so does their ERA. Finally, trying to project relievers from year to year is generally a waste of time. If a guy has less than 80 IP, luck plays a huge part in his final ERA numbers. Just a nice early morning ramble to start the day http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif