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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    If Carlos signs with the Cubs, I hope our right-handed hitters try to pull lazers to him in LF. His defense is already bad and will only get worse.
  2. rluzinski
    Because there are rumors that Lee privately expressed a preference for the Cubs, he's "expected" to sign there? That's more than just a bit of a stretch.
  3. rluzinski
    I'm confident that the Brewers will be adding a decent bat at some point in this off season. Mark A's comments lately just about guarantees that. It's not going to be class A type player but still a good one.
  4. rluzinski
    It's hard for me to take seriously any scenario that makes Jenkins' entire salary magically disappear. The Brewers will either have eat a portion of that contract or take on another bad contract. $7 mil will not be freed up.
  5. rluzinski
    If someone offered to pay Jenkins' entire contract, the Brewers could get nothing in return and the deal would still probably make sense. I still think Jenkins has some value but not $7 mil worth of value. Probably not even $5.
  6. rluzinski
    His minor league stats were nice but not particularily awesome either: LINK I guess the question is, what's worth more: Jenkins for $7.0 mil Reed for $2.4 mil Even if you think Jenkins is worth $4 mil and Reed $0, that would probably be a deal worth making.
  7. rluzinski
    how have we improved? There was a reason we were well under .500 this season and please, don't say injuries. A new trend around here seems tp be people asking questions but only allowing the answers they want to hear. Way to promote discussion.
  8. rluzinski
    Or did you have one of the specific forums bookmarked? I bookmark the "major league forum".
  9. rluzinski
    They don't think he "steps up" when the team needs him most That's why fans don't make personel decisions. Peavy isn't going anywhere.
  10. rluzinski
    I'm all good now. Reason #178 for Brian to hurry up with the new message board? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  11. rluzinski
    When I click on the "Fan Forum Link", I get this: I had to search for the correct number suffix for "fbrewersfandemoniumfrm" to find this forum.
  12. rluzinski
    Did he mean to post at babykillerfan.net? I mean, really.
  13. rluzinski
    If Pierre was a good defender, I'd be all over him. The fact that he's average at best out of there and has some holes in his swing... no thanks.
  14. rluzinski
    When I say that, it's not so much about stolen bases as it is the ability to take an extra base, I like having more guys you can send home on a ball hit in the gap, etc. Base advancement has been studies to death. Dan Fox has done excellant work in that regard. He first came up with a metric he calls "Incremental runs", (IR) which tells you how much above average value (in terms of runs) a player adds from basepath advancement on hits. Here's the leader list from 2000 - 2004, in terms of IR: LINK Pierre is the best! Since then, he's come up with a more comprehensive approach at measuring speed on the basepaths (he writes for BP now, so I haven't followed his recent work very closely). It includes advancements on hits, outs and base stealing. Here's that list: LINK Pierre is still high on the list but he kills himself in base stealing attempts (-8.9 runs). According to Fox, the net run value above average of his speed on the basepaths from 2000-2005 is 18.5 runs. That's on average, worth about 2 wins over the course of 6 years. I stress average because he isn't looking at actual game situations, with regard to the outcome of of the games Pierre was in. Still, it gives us an idea of the magnitude of his base running value. Even if you trippled that number, it's pretty darn small.
  15. rluzinski
    As for leading off, while I agree a leadoff hitter doesn't leadoff every inning, hasn't it been proven that the leadoff hitter leads off more innings than any other batter in any other spot in the order? Well, of course, since he's guaranteed to lead off at least once a game. It's about 20% of the time. Considering random chance would put it at 11%, that's not a whole heck of a lot different. SLG isn't as important at leadoff but it's by no means irrelevant. it does change the way opposing teams face hitters, such as defensive positioning or the propensity for more fastballs, which in theory should help the batter at the plate. It's a very logical, straight forward theory. It just doesn't appear to hold up to any kind of scrutiny. At the very least, it's clear that any benefit is VERY subtle. I think some fans and even coaches think a speedy guy at 1B is a substantial advantage to a batter. It simply isn't.
  16. rluzinski
    I love how the nerds (no offense) on here always tend to want to point out the "stats". Wouldn't want to look at a record of actual baseball ABs, to see if theories are correct, would we? Naaa. If having base stealers at 1B helped batters, they would perform better in those situations. For the most part, it appears they get very little extra advantage.* Much of the evidence supports the exact opposite conclusion. Ignoring that fact makes you ignorant in this regard (no offense). It's an advantage to have any runner at 1st for a batter, especially a LH, because of defense positioning.
  17. rluzinski
    Pierre doesnt seem to play well when the weather is cold. Sounds stupid, but it just takes one look at his career numbers to think that it just might be fact. Juan Pierre, Career: [b] AVG OBP SLG OPS[/b] April .290 .347 .352 .699 May .283 .332 .350 .683 June .272 .323 .341 .664 July .336 .383 .418 .801 August .290 .335 .369 .704 September .334 .375 .418 .793I don't see it.
  18. rluzinski
    From 99-02, a team scored at least 1 run in an inning about 31% of the time. I know that the most average number of runs are scored in the first but I don't know how often at least 1 run is scored in tthe first.
  19. rluzinski
    Hardy, Helling and Turnbow for Crawford or Baldelli? Melvin would be laughed at if he proposed that trade. You can't just throw in a bunch of guys no one wants with one prospect and expect to get something return. For instance, Jackson, Jenkins, Clark, Turnbow, Blanco, Wendy Selig-Prieb For Albert Pujols See? It just doesn't work.
  20. rluzinski
    pitching russ...pitching. the yankees too had one of the best lineups (on paper) look where that landed them. And the Twins had good pitching. How did that work out for them? Using the result of a 5 game series doesn't really prove anything.
  21. rluzinski
    People realize that with no one on, a K is the same as any other out, right? Having a leadoff hitter who doesn't K basically adds no value, especially in the NL Speed players typically age very poorly. I wouldn't want to sign Pierre to more than a 1 year deal, if at all.
  22. rluzinski
    So, despite the fact that the Phillis scored more runs than any other NL team last year, they need to fix their offense by tradining away one of their better hitters?
  23. rluzinski
    Ryan Braun 2-for-4 (double, walk); Vinny Rottino 0-for-5, Steve Moss 0-for-3; pitchers idle... Can't you go 5 minutes without ignorantly slamming these guys? What the hell do you know, anyway!?
  24. rluzinski
    Hudson probably isn't worth his current contract. Why would someone have to give Atlanta something to get a neutral or negative value contract?
  25. rluzinski
    Why didn't you just put this HERE?
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