rluzinski

It's one series, but it's rough when Jenkins has no chance before the at bat has begun. If that were actually true you you would be a very rich man. I always hear about how batters are looking terrible during their AB, but those observations are usually more based on the result of the AB, not the actual AB. I want to know, what is the exact thing that Jenkins is going differently right now that he doesn't normally do?

Boy, I've been very good about not bashing Jenkins so far, but my patience is wearing thin. I sure hope he doesn't play tomorrow, because he has that same "dear in the headlights" look at the plate. Dear in headlights? Jenkins looks exactly like he always does, IMO. Furthermore, despite a bad series, he's still batting .261. I ask you, why does everyone want to look for any excuse to ride Jenkins?

And now Moeller bats? Double switch? What the heck is going on here?

If Yost knew he was pulling Miller for Moeller anyway, why the heck did he have Miller bat with 2 on and 2 out? Did he honestly think Miller was the best option there? I'd rather have, Hall, Hart, Cirillo or Gross before Miller.

I ran across the following post in the Scout's Sabermetric forum. It was posted by Mitchel Lichtman, aka "MGL", who contributed to "The Book" and currently works for the Cardinals: Maybe throw this thread in the stats forum?

With 2 strikes, if a batter gets a strike, he's out and it hurts his BA. If he gets a strike with less than 2 strikes it doesn't affect the above numbers at all. That's why it's important to look at BA THROUGH a particular count, as oppossed to AT a particular count. If you don't, you are comparing apples to oranges. Where did you get those numbers from anyway?

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/pir_sweep.jpg Good luck!

If Prince doesn't get the start at first tonight, I'd rather see Hart there than Cirillo. I wholeheartedly second that.

12,000+ views? Egad!

I realize the moderators of this board what to keep it neat and tidy around here, but it really is annoying. You'd probably see 3-5 mini threads started for each game if it was allowed. Most of those threads wouldn't spur much discussion amuway, since their topics are usually limited in scope and were probably already covered in the IGT. For something that encompasses more than one game, a thread could certainly be justified. For instance, a "Slow Start for Fielder" thread wouldn't be locked because it encompasses Prince's play over 2 games. Heck, it's only a matter of tume before that thread IS made http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

According to Bill, as long as Cap can reduce his HR and BB s while still getting insanely good run support, he'll have a great year. Thanks Bill! The season has now officially started for me http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

I'd like to see the sample size on those "huge" numbers. Especially since at the end of the day, it's ultimately just an old Joe Randa that's hitting. 22 AB, but he has a 1.008 OPS against him! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Branyan has been overvalued...as a Sabermetric anomaly... Definitions of anomaly: * deviation from the normal or common order or form or rule * a person who is unusual Highest 3TO%: (HR+BB+SO)/PA (min. of 1,000 PA) [b]Last First PA HR BB SO 3TO%[/b] Branyan Russell 1691 93 200 597 52.6% Nicholson Dave 1661 61 219 573 51.4% Deer Rob 4512 230 575 1409 49.1% Nieves Melvin 1392 63 136 483 49.0% Dunn Adam 2783 158 462 733 48.6% Pappas Milt 1174 20 36 510 48.2% Thome Jim 7281 430 1257 1762 47.4% Lolich Mickey 1017 0 105 362 45.9% Bellhorn Mark 2185 61 310 628 45.7% McGwire Mark 7660 583 1317 1596 45.6% Some of us found that pretty unique.

It's called "Tracyball", and it's also called stupid in most circles. 20% getter chance of scoring atleast 1 run VS. 2/3 of an extra inning from my starting pitcher. Tough call!

It is beginning to sound like the error problems might be a bit in is head. My understanding is that he's had erratic throws throughout his short professional career. If it's a mental issue he's had it for awhile.

I'll try and get a nice group to go...

Unless you are strictly a 1B, ya really nead cleats. Especially outfielders. people spend $300+ for bats, but I always use the $30 ones http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

antimater

Throw this in the stats forum if it's run it's course?

I want to say that your assessment of him here is about as even-keel as I could possibly imagine for such a hard player to predict When Hall jumped out to a quick start last year, a started researching his numbers and noticed that he had ramped up his patience at the plate. While that doesn't automatically spell success, the fact he had changed anything about his appraoch made me less confident in simply extrapolating his limited MLB numbers to make a prediction. In addition, any player that get's regular playing time will do better than one that get's sporadic playing time. That's not just supposition, it's something that was studied in "The Book". They showed that pulling lefties for a pinch hitter isn't always a great idea since the righty vs. lefty advantage can be erased by the "pinch hitter effect." Pinch hitters simply don't hit as well when they only get 1 AB in a game. Anyway, Hall benefited from actually having a decent amount of ABs. To ignore that would be unfair. then doesn't that make him more than a solid 4/5 All my predictions were for the upcoming season only. I would hope that Bush's career ceiling is higher than a typical #4. My prediction for Bush would have been higher, except he only has 234 MLB innings pitched and I don't dare yet try and make MLB predictions on minor league data. I didn't want to go to overboard on a prediction based on limited IP and a metric that certainly misses some variables (FIP). FIP is an excellent metric, but it has it's limitions. Considering that a month ago, some were still arguing that Helling should get the 5th spot in the rotation, I felt that suggesting Bush may actually be better than Ohka this year was sufficiently "bold".

Neat stuff. After this thread get's it's exposure on the major league forum, maybe it could be pinned in the off topic or brewerfan.net forum?

This really screams front page material. Brian is more than welcome to convert it into an article http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I don't necessarily agree with some of your conclusions, but if everyone agreed with every single projection this discussion would be pretty lame Well, I'm not sure if I am married to them either. I just looked at the stats and let them steer me wherever they did. I'm just learning. I'm curious, on Woah Solvdd you said you didn't think Hall would match his '05 numbers, but yet you seem to be somewhat hopeful of what he can do based on your comments above. Again, I was trying to stay objective. While I think prOPS is on to something, there were obvious signs that Hall deserved to improve in 2005 and deserves to improve in 2006. An .800 OPS (my prediction) is pretty darn good dor a guy who can play the middle infield.

12 teams with a 25 man roster would be great.

The Lahman's Datbase, of course. I meant the actual spreadsheet with your calculations.

A better measure of success is the number of plate appearances per out: PAO correlates at a very high +.495. with winning (since 1956), better than OBP (+.485). Outs = PA x (1 - OBP) so: PAO = 1 / (1 - OBP) So winning correlates slightly better with the inverse of OBP than OBP? The difference between a low team OBP and high OBP is maybe .05 at most, PAO is essentially linear anyway. I don't get it. Also, a lot of the correlation coefficients are so low that they may not even be statistically significant. You are doing it by year? So 50 years x ~25 teams = ~1500 data points? Do you have a spreadsheet of this?