rluzinski

To set the record straight, I didn't realize Francis was a lefty http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I SUPPOSE I can forgive Yost.... THIS time.

Santos sucks.

... and what did I tell you. Branyan goes 3-4... time to BENCH him! Seriously, if Branyan is really SO hurt that he can't play consecutive games nor more than 2 games a week, WHY isn't he on the DL. Seems like that's an excuse.

No JJ Hardy again? Why not? See, since Hall has been slumling lately the Brewers need to bench Hardy so they have more offensive attack. Makes sense to me.

How many innings of shut out ball does Francis have to throw to have his ERA below 5.00?? Sadly, his 9 inning outing will only lower his ERA to 5.38.

Run Expectancy - 1999-02 --------OUTS--------- 0 1 2 Empty 0.555 0.297 0.117 1st 0.953 0.573 0.251 2nd 1.189 0.725 0.344 3rd 1.482 0.983 0.387 1st&2nd 1.573 0.971 0.466 1st&3rd 1.904 1.243 0.538 2nd&3rd 2.052 1.467 0.634 Loaded 2.417 1.65 0.815 LINK Run Frequency - 1999-02 The following table presents the rate of the number of runs that scored, from that base/out state, to the end of that inning. All data is from 1999-2002. Base Outs ----------------Runs------------------- 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Empty 0 0.707 0.154 0.074 0.035 0.016 0.013 Empty 1 0.827 0.101 0.042 0.017 0.007 0.005 Empty 2 0.923 0.051 0.017 0.005 0.002 0.001 1st 0 0.563 0.176 0.132 0.067 0.034 0.028 1st 1 0.717 0.123 0.091 0.040 0.017 0.013 1st 2 0.864 0.062 0.049 0.016 0.006 0.003 2nd 0 0.368 0.348 0.142 0.076 0.035 0.030 2nd 1 0.594 0.230 0.098 0.045 0.018 0.014 2nd 2 0.777 0.147 0.049 0.017 0.006 0.003 3rd 0 0.136 0.542 0.164 0.090 0.035 0.033 3rd 1 0.338 0.478 0.106 0.045 0.018 0.014 3rd 2 0.737 0.187 0.050 0.017 0.006 0.004 1st&2nd 0 0.359 0.219 0.165 0.127 0.070 0.059 1st&2nd 1 0.574 0.161 0.110 0.088 0.038 0.028 1st&2nd 2 0.769 0.106 0.058 0.044 0.015 0.008 1st&3rd 0 0.124 0.417 0.174 0.142 0.076 0.067 1st&3rd 1 0.345 0.370 0.119 0.092 0.042 0.031 1st_3rd 2 0.715 0.151 0.061 0.049 0.016 0.008 2nd&3rd 0 0.144 0.249 0.307 0.147 0.079 0.074 2nd&3rd 1 0.305 0.285 0.218 0.101 0.053 0.038 2nd&3rd 2 0.724 0.054 0.141 0.049 0.021 0.011 Loaded 0 0.128 0.255 0.211 0.143 0.134 0.130 Loaded 1 0.330 0.252 0.151 0.106 0.093 0.068 Loaded 2 0.675 0.092 0.105 0.055 0.048 0.025 LINK I use the second table alot. For instance, it tells me: * Lead off double scores 63% of the time * Runner at 3B and 1 out scores 66% of the time

Dr. Michael Hfuhruhurr...Steve Martin in.... Man with 2 Brains? When he used to make good movies http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

hardballtimes.com

The moderators do less "censorship" here than many other message boards. Even when threads get out of hand they are usually just locked, almost NEVER deleted. Most things going on here are very transparent. In the end moderators have to make judgement calls; some might not be as popular as others and some might be the "wrong" choice. Overall I think these boards are policed very well, however.

He shouldn't be in the mall buying beds, he should be taking four, five extra hours of BP to work on hitting sliders and curve balls. Was that a joke? I'm confused http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I don't think we've even really nailed down what heart it. It seems to be pretty all encompassing.

Bill James: "The data is a limited way of explaining life. The essential property of the data is that it?s not real. It is an image of a reality that is always something else and in the same way as one can define poverty in different ways in the statistics, or anything in baseball, what you have in essence is a picture and you could take a picture of me from the front and a picture of me from the left and a picture of me from the back and you?d have very, very different pictures. The statistics are not ? they?re a real thing; they are just a picture of something else. There is always a lot that?s left out of the picture and the biggest mistake that people who try to study baseball through the stats make is thinking that they ? it?s confusing them with the real event. There?s always a tremendous amount that?s left out. What a lot of people don?t understand is that there are also things that you can see in the statistics that you can?t really see in any other way. So you have - you just have to balance those."

Even the staunchest of SABR-followers would (or SHOULD) admit that the statistical models they've developed doesn't account for EVERYTHING that goes on. As an engineer all my analysis of steel structures are based on MODELS, not the real thing. While I recognize that my models aren't the real thing, they close enough to make meaningful conclusions from (the crane won't collapse at full load). Statistical analysis of baseball is the same thing. The best run estimators come very close to estimating the amount of runs a team produces in a year, but they will ALWAYS have an error associated with it. The model simply can't take into account every variable; Some variables are just too random (how many suicide sqeezes will result in a run? How many will even be attempted in a year?) or unquantifiable (fundamentally sound teams stealing a win here and there). That's not to say we can't extract meaningful conclusions from that run estimation model, however. If the run estimator can consistantly predict the amount of runs scored for a team over a season to within 5%, then we KNOW we've accurately modeled about 95% of what makes a team score runs. We can then begin weighing the things we CAN quantify to the things we can't. All mathematical models of complex events WILL have an error, ESPECIALLY when something like people are involved. Provided a person doesn't overstate the accuracy of their model, though, they can give valuable insite on whatever phenomina is being modeled. The most simple run estimating formula: runs = AB * OBP * SLG That can predict runs scored over a season to within 95% accuracy. If that can't convince people how powerful stats are in baseball, nothing will.

Were our batters at the end trying to do whatever they could to get on base, or were they just swinging away to get it over with. You mean because they only walked once? There was only one walk in the game. You say they weren't doing "whatever they could. Pretty much you walk or get a hit. They had 9 hits. I don't see how they where trying to "get it over with." It's more a function of the result that it was their approach I think. You might see above statement as further "proof" of mental weakness but I guess I just don't see it. Hall screwed up and they just didn't score.

I'd rather just guys who can hit than "Dusty Baker" the team with a bunch of aging veterans who "know hoe to win."

So Sheets did bad because he doesn't have heart, or whatever we are calling it these days? This isn't a soap opera, it's baseball. Sheets got lit up in Colorado. It happens.

ROOTER!!!! He's the guy who's going to spark the 9 run rally!!!! EDIT: Atleast I got to watch him lower his BA against righties to .190.

Actually, Luz, I think he flipped his bat in disgust because he knew he just missed it. O... well... nevermind then http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

AWWWWWW, steroid Helton thought he had the HR and flips his bat like a punk. Sorry, you don't have the happy juice to help you anymore.

I mean, how is the TV Crew talking about AB w/RISP when they are down by 9. Get real.

I can't stop watching. I mean, the brewers can't possibly be held to 2 runs in Colorado. It's like scoring -1 runs in any other park!

Lehr really picked up Sheets there.

Yost just wants to see how many runs Sheets can give up?

having no pitching plan for Coors I think the plan was to bust out the curve after the first time through. Just guessing. HOW MANY TIMES is the TV crew going to talk about how many runs Sheets gave up. WE GOT IT. He did bad. We were right there watching.

Dink, dink, dink, dink, dink, dink... 8-2 What a WIERD friggin inning. Six hits, ALL SINGLES. The Brewers have 4 doubles and 2 less hits... and 6 less runs. How depressing.

Don't any of you DARE say the Crew is out of the wild card race!