rluzinski
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Everything posted by rluzinski
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For as much complaining as I've seen regarding Weeks poor start to the 2012 season (and it has been poor), I think there has been some over-reaction. I'm sure most of that stems from people's overuse of BA (Weeks BA stands at .157). Despite that putrid BA, however, his current OBP is still higher than several current Brewer's CAREER OBP (.306). So I think we can all agree that Weeks is hitting poorly but I don't believe the impact of his poor performance has been as bad as some suggest. There have been much larger problems this year.
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Brewers have averaged 4.06 runs per game(RPG) this year (NL average last year was 4.13) Brewers have given up an average of 4.94 RPG A team that scores 4.06 RPG is expected to score 3 runs or less, 49% of the time (Brewers have done it 51% of the time) A team that scores 4.94 RPG is expected to score 4 or more run,s 61% of the time. That means that a team that gives up an average of 4.94 RPG and scores 3 or less runs should win 39% of the time. We would expect the Brewers to be 7-11 in those games, not 3-15. Of course, in an 18 game sample, we should actually expect the numbers NOT be what we should "expect". Also, while 3 runs is below average run production, an average offense scores 3 runs or less about 50% of the time. Run distribution does not follow a bell curve and those 8+ run games really makes a big difference.
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I don't think there's any doubt that shifting can work, the question is the why, when and how. In that New York Times article, Dewan was quoted as saying that there are 100 guys who are worth shifting against. That's around about three guys a team. If we start seeing the Brewers employing big shifts against half a dozen guys a game, they are probably getting a little out of control. Also, I suspect the actual run prevention effect is not huge but I have nothing to back that hunch up with, without knowing how drastic shifting can suppress a batter's BABIP.
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Will Braun ever learn to take his Walks?
rluzinski replied to 3and2Fastball's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Batters simply aren't affected very much by who bats before or after them. That's what the numbers show, at least. -
I just don't know if he was ever anything special. Yeh, he has some nice velocity. Yeh, he had a nice year in 2011 but a 3.5 FIP for a reliever over 71 IP is nothing to get very excited about. He had a preseason ZiPS projection of 3.86. pretty close to average for a reliever.
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11-5 in night games, 3-12 in day games
rluzinski replied to Eddiehitsthefoulpole's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'm more enraged about their Wednesday record! -
Preseason ZiPS Projection: .260/.350/.460 Current Line: .164/.302/.302 Updated ZiPS Projection: .245/.342/.441 The updated projection takes into account his bad start to the season. Without having any knowledge of what is causing his bad start (if anything), we can only presume that his updated projection is our best guess for his production for Friday. I can see an argument that projections are based on the average guy and Weeks' start is very un-average. I recall reading a study that showed players in extreme hot and cold streaks showed a SLIGHT persistence effect. Still, you are putting too much emphasis on his most recent production in terms of projecting future production. History shows us that.
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First pitch or not, it was a fastball down the middle. Why fault him for swinging at it? Believe it or not, a walk to the preceding batter (even a 5 pitch walk) does not noticeably increase the odds of seeing a walk to the subsequent batter. Actually, i think the exact study looked at 4 pitch walks to the preceding batter.
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RR really like Ishikawa
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Neutral platoon splits or not, sucks to have to bring in a lefty to face a lefty here.
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30 pitches for Marshall.....
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Two more......
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Don't worry guys, his save streak is still alive and well. That's all that really matters, right?
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Depressing.
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John Dewan is the author of the Fielding Bible and creater of DRS statistic. Like MGL's UZR metric, it utilizes batted ball trajectory and speed to estimate the odds of a particular ball being turned into an out. He had an interesting quote in a New York Times article pertaining to the Brewers: "Dewan said that heading into 2011, the Milwaukee Brewers “may have had the absolute worst infield you could have put together,” but by increasing from 22 defensive shifts in 2010 to 170 shifts in 2011, they saved themselves 56 runs." http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/08/sports/baseball/rays-manager-joe-maddon-is-the-king-of-shifts.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all 56 runs is absolutely huge, obviously. That's 5-6 extra wins. That would cost you around $25 mil in terms of player talent to buy on the open market! I am a little skeptical of such a large number but it is certainly interesting. EDIT: Looks like my skepticism was justifiable. The 56 runs was the Brewers improvement for the infield overall, compared to 2010: https://twitter.com/#!/BenJedlovec/status/199938924947316736 More discussions here: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/rays_shifts/#comments
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There are exceptions to every rule. I make decisions in life based on the most likely explanation.
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Tommy Manzella 2012 ZIPS Projection: .220/.269/.312/.571 Wow.
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Tommy Manzella 2012 ZIPS Projection: .220/.269/.312/.571 Wow.
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Again, I'm fine with giving Weeks a day or two off but what you say above is almost certainly not true. Despite Weeks' mediocre start to the season, if we project how well we would expect him to perform today vs. Conrad or Green, it isn't even close. Unless this cold streak is being influenced by an undisclosed injury, it has little predictive value. In other words, Weeks' preseason projection is going to represent his expected performance today and tomorrow a lot more than his 130 PA this year. Every study has concluded that hot and cold streaks are largely a function of a random number generator. There are exceptions of course but the trick is being able to identify the "real" cold streaks from the random ones. Everyone always identifies all these mechanical flaws that a cold batter is supposedly exhibiting but I think more often than not, they are largely imagined.
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Weeks puts up a .308 OBP and .629 OPS in July and people would hardly notice. Do it in he first month while the team is struggling and you are in trouble. Couple it with a bad BA and look out! Want to sit a struggling player a day or two to let him clear his head? Great. Calling for anything more is just fans over-reacting, IMO.
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The bottom of the order reminds me of 2002: ZiPS Rest-of-Season Projections: Ishikawa: .225/.297/.364/.661 Izturis: .244/.286/.300/.586 Wow, my mistake. That is actually much worse than what the 2002 team did in those spots: 2002 Team Results by Batting Order: Batting 7th: .258/.326/.400/.726 Batting 8th: .215/.280/.324/.604 Now I know that Ishikawa should do better than that against a RH starter but still. He is our starting first basemen! Between the SS/1B situation, Estrada starting, the Brewers recent struggles and the crummy weather, I am so not excited about going to today's game. They are huge dogs. +185 money line... Reminds me of..... well 2002. Where's Ben Sheets from a decade ago when you need him?
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So the two positions where the Brewers had laughable depth at sees terrible injuries to plan A?
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The worst hitter against righties in the lineup and he's leading off. I can't figure out why Gomez is even starting, much less leading off.
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If he doesn't ask for that much $$/the brewers have enough of it, I don't have a huge problem with Derrek Lee (minus that whole cubs thing). I think a .260/.330/.440 line is a very reasonable expectation and really not that out of line from what most had Gamel projected for (the difference is thats probably Lee's ceiling, whereas Gamel had a higher upside). For this season, I don't think there's a huge difference between Lee and Gamel. Lee's ZiPS projection is .260/.328/.433, so that is certainly reasonable. He also appears to still be a little above average defensively. That said, if he expects to get paid $5+ mil, no thanks.
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Brooks Conrad summoned from AAA
rluzinski replied to 3and2Fastball's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Judging a vet by his first 150 AB of a season is exactly what you shouldn't do, good or bad. It can make you come to conclusions that look absolutely foolish by the end of the year. I care little about his production in 2012. What I care about is his .261/.323/.400/.723 major league line since 2009 and his mediocre numbers last year in AAA. He could turn his career around but the odds are not good. Conrad's offensive projections look equally as bad but at least he can play 2B and 3B. Neither have any business getting major league starts at 1B.