rluzinski

I can'tt rule out the possibility but by my estimates, that simply wasn't the case. And what the Brewer's record has been since the acquisition is almost irrelevant. Hell, the Brewers are undefeated since Weeks got hurt!

I made that same argument on this board in 2002. I presented as much evidence as you did as well. Since then, I've studied the matter a lot and realized just how wrong I was. You are correct that defense is not even 50% of the game but it is still very important. Every non-out made by Betancourt represents about 2/3rds of a run on average. That includes the obvious errors and the not-as-obvious 5 hopper that skitters between Betancourt and 2B. Even if Betancourt only makes 1 less out than an average SS every 5 games, that's still about 20 runs and 2 wins over a full season, which is a hell of a lot. That's the difference between an average major leaguer and a perennial minor leaguer. It's the difference between 87 wins and the playoffs and 85 wins and sitting at home.

This is what I want to see against RHers (including their ZiPS ROS Projections): VS. RHers: CF Morgan (.279/.333/.371) RF Hart (.269/.332/.467) LF Braun (.304/.367/.546) 1B Fielder (.283/.406/.533) SS Hairston (.265/.323/.416) 3B McGehee (.260/.314/.401) C Lucroy (.263/.318/.385) 2B Lopez (.250/.314/.347) Against lefties, bat Betancourt 6th and play hm at SS and have Hairston leadoff and play in CF? Just hard to come up with good options without Weeks and Gomez.

ZiPS Rest-Of-Season ERA Projections: Greinke: 3.18 Marcum: 3.53 Gallardo: 3.57 Axford: 3.0 That is going to be why the Brewers make the playoffs.

Man, you love your small samples. They continuously lead you astray but you never seem to notice. Here are two off the top of my head: http://brewersfandemonium...ne-talk-me-off-the-ledge http://brewersfandemonium...allardo-tipping-pitches- You have to admit that both look silly in retrospect, right? ZiPS ROS ERA Projections: Greinke: 3.18Marcum: 3.53Gallardo: 3.57Wolf: 4.15Narveson: 4.50 Nerveson is an excellent #5 but he is clearly a step down from the first four starting pitchers. It might make sense to start skipping him soon.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/ 6.5 games back with 54 to play. They have to jump over three teams. It's not impossible but it's sure unlikely.

And Counsell and Lopez might be the only ones who are better defenders? Hairston would really be best utilized at SS and 2B, IMO.

I thought the KRod trade was great (assuming the Brewers don't lose any real prospects) but I don't think that was the biggest Brewers need. The Brewers left side of the infield has two below average defenders with OBP's below .275. Both project to perform better offensively going forward but their expected lines still look terrible: ZIPS Rest-of-Season Projections: Betancourt: .266/.290/.401 McGehee: 260/.314/.401 Betancourt in particular is such a poor defender and OBP guy that his little bit of pop is largely irrelevant. He projects to be AAA material, not a starter on a playoff team. KRod is a low 3 ERA reliever and might give the Brewers 60 IP. That's nice but some combination of Saito/Hawkins/Loe would have been fine IMO. But no, I am not considering RR not knowing how to manage. If Melvin was considering that when he said he filled the Brewers greatest need, that is sad.

This team has great starting pitching, decent offense and terrible defense. They are 11 games over but have only outscored their opponents by 5 runs on the year. Frankly, the Brewers are probably lucky to have such a great record in close games. They are probably going to need to play better to make the playoffs as tehy shouldn't expect to continue dominating in 1 run games. When you have a couple of terrible players that have started all year, it's a blessing in disguise. It's very easy to upgrade a position when the current starter is playing like a minor leaguer. Unfortunately, I suspect the Melvin is betting on Mcgehee and Betancourt to play better going forward. Hell, he said that getting KRod filled their greatest need. It's very frustrating.

I know you´ve said this and made this point before, but I don´t buy it. Just about every major leager I´ve heard speak, says sometimes they go through periods where they see the ball better, and other times they go through periods where they don´t. So clearly, if a player is seeing the ball better, that is a time to leave him in. They say they are seeing the ball well when asked to explain a good run of games. That's all well and good but when people actually look to see if a "hot" batter does better than expected going forward, they find very little evidence of of it. Perhaps the studies so far have failed to tease the evidence out of the data but what you suggest is clear is quite the opposite. Some of these things just can´t be categorically slotted away in your statistical boxes. You make these players out to be robots, they aren´t. They are human beings who go through ups and downs. No, I'm telling you if they WERE robots you would STILL see all kinds of streaks. And those streaks the robots experience; humans are subjected to them as well. If there was clear evidence that batters do have have REAL streaks, they would be SIGNIFICANTLY more subject to streaks than my spreadsheet. Taken as a group, humans are only slightly more streaky. Look at "streaky" roboJenkins: http://rluzinski.blogspot...ins-and-consistency.html That's me assuming that each AB is just a coin flip. Take into account the changing skill level of the opposing pitcher, home and away variance, platoon advantages, etc... these robots are streaky as hell! I have no doubt that batters do experience non-statistical-noise hot and cold streaks (especially cold because of injuries), how do you know when it IS just statistical noise (which is much more likely)? Is a manager supposed to ask a batter? "Hey Betancourt, do you think your recent uptick in offensive production is a result of coin-flip luck or are you seeing the ball better recently and expect your good production to continue?" If managers can't differentiate between statistical noise and the real deal, they have to assume noise because that is much more likely. "Plus he only has a history of hitting .111 lifetime against Myers. Not the line I'm looking for." Another thing managers should ignore!

I'm getting the feeling that Hairston will platoon in CF and get the occasional start at 3B, SS and 2B. That does not make me happy.

I agree with others that I was fine with melvin's moves but fear that RR is going to mess it all up.

With all due respect (you are one of my favorite posters here) I cannot wrap my mind around Fielder being better than Yuni in the field. Fielder, I think, is the worst defensive player on the team and one of the worst in the division (Carlos Lee comes to mind as someone worse) Relative to the average defender at their respective positions, I believe Fielder is better. In an absolute sense, every SS in the league is probably better than any first basemen.

I've pointed this out about 100 times over the last 9 years but there is very little evidence that batters who are "hot" continue to perform over their expected performance level. It's 99% statistical noise. Same goes for cold streaks. An excel batter gets hot all the time as well. I'm sure there are times where cold streaks are real but good luck determining when. Yuni has an updated ZiPS projection of .265/.289/.398. There is also a clear consensus among scouts, advanced defensive metrics and the fans; Betancourt is a terrible defensive SS, perhaps the worst everyday SS. He's hit .300/.286/.350 over the last 7 days? Super.

Great pitching > great offense. As far as I know, that's a cliche that is based on.... I have no idea. I have never seen any evidence even offered up to support it. Nice to get another early lead. These games have been fun. Hey look a squeeze worked.. that will justify making another 20 outs at home.

'Best player' means 'hasn't had a hit since about May'. You just have to figure out 'Rock-Speak'. RR said Kotsay is in there for his bat. That says it all.

Since his May 2nd start: 100 IP, 2.70 ERA, 94 SO, 29 BB I don't think Estrada will be taking Gallardo's spot in the rotation anytime soon!

If they can't beat the Astros without Bourne and PEnce, even with the Sunday lineup, everyone might as well quit. Vegas is giving the Brewers a 64% chance of winning, so it's not a slam dunk. It never is with baseball. I'd rather add an extra 1-2% to that by avoiding all of RR's goofy actions. Kotsay, starting in CF and batting 2nd. Lopez apparently the new #5 guy? And when RR shares his rational for making the decisions, you realize that he just looks at the game of baseball in a peculiar way.

Bill James actually looked at this, years ago -- I forget which book it's in. He ran a computer simulation with one lineup full of OBP guys and one full of SLG guys (I think he used one player who exemplified each type) over hundreds of games. The OBP team scored a lot more runs. You could do a more sophisticated version of the study with, say, one team that's .400/.400 and another that's .300/.500, and I'm pretty sure (though I don't have the knowhow to test my intuition) that the OBP team would win again. Not making outs is the single most important part of a baseball offense. It's been studied to death using every method you can think of (simulations, regressions based on historical data, etc...). Yes, SLG becomes more valuable in different parts of the lineup but the effects are subtle. If you stuck with just using the rule-of-thumb 1.8*OBP + SLG to determine who should be in the lineup, you will do well for yourself.

ZiPS ROS: .269/.339/.394 If he can play close to average defense at SS and 2B and put that up, I would be very happy. If Betancourt is playing every day once Weeks comes back, I will be very unhappy.

Yeh, I don't know why I tend to avoid that option. Ticket window opens at 5:30. Thanks.

"Club Goodwill tickets are sold at the ticket windows in Left Field, on the day of the game" http://www.amazinggoodwill.com/categories/31-inthenewsarchive/documents/152-club-goodwill-section-now-open-at-miller-park So I wonder if that means you can start buying those tickets when the lot opens or like now?

Counsell has often shown disappointment through his body language after a poor AB, especially with runners on and he's the third out. Since he hasn't had a hit in forever, he's certainly increased how often he has shown disappointment. The more important question is, do we HAVE to automatically assume that when a batter shows disappointment during a cold streak, it serves only to proliferate that poor performance? I mean, it's completely fair to assume that it could be, but it's quite possible that Counsell is completely focused during the AB's, so whatever he does after is irrelevant. Do I lose my baseball-fan card for even posing the question? A player's mental state certainly goes into how well the player plays. For a simple example of this, look at the principle of home field advantage. Why do players play better at home than they do on the road? It almost certainly has to do with the mental state of the players. I hoped I made it clear that I am not suggesting that emotions play no role in performance. There is no question that it can. My question was whether we should automatically ASSUME that a slumping batter who throws his bat after a bad AB, negatively impacts his expected performance going forward? My stance is simply that it could vary from "a lot" to "not to any meaningful degree" depending on the player and situation. Assuming "a lot" is just as bad as assuming "not at all". Fans too often use the slump as evidence that emotions are affecting the batter, so it just becomes a chicken-egg situation. Give a robot a 25% chance of getting a hit for 600 consecutive AB's and he will also show clear evidence of being "locked in and confident" one second and "frustrated" the next.

Counsell has often shown disappointment through his body language after a poor AB, especially with runners on and he's the third out. Since he hasn't had a hit in forever, he's certainly increased how often he has shown disappointment. The more important question is, do we HAVE to automatically assume that when a batter shows disappointment during a cold streak, it serves only to proliferate that poor performance? I mean, it's completely fair to assume that it could be, but it's quite possible that Counsell is completely focused during the AB's, so whatever he does after is irrelevant. Do I lose my baseball-fan card for even posing the question?

When should I expect the gates to open for this evening's game?