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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Because it does, how long has it been since you've played baseball.When a guy is playing worse than you would expect, he plays closer to what you would expect after a day off. Brilliant! But if I had played low level amateur baseball, I would know that already.
  2. rluzinski
    Kotsay looks silly out in CF. But when you can hit as well as him, it's hard not to have him out there!
  3. rluzinski
    Why do people think that taking a day off ends cold streaks? As if Kotsay at first is going to help this team? Please. The Brewers are probably going to lose this game because the Giants are smarter than the Brewers. Taking base running risks at home with two outs is smart and with one out, stupid.
  4. rluzinski
    Well, at at least we are pretty close to not having to hear how "hot" Kotsay has been in July.
  5. rluzinski
    Lord knows I'd rather have a leadoff walk than a triple to start the inning. (Nevermind that I think HRs also count for this discussion...)I've heard announcers claim a leadoff walk scores more often than a leadoff single, which I don't believe is true either.
  6. rluzinski
    Bill: "Walks will score often than hits" That would be a very interesting tidbit of information if you didn't just completely make it up. Hell common sense tells you that it's just nonsense. But hey, he's the expert. "I understand what Bill is saying with walks scoring more than hits" Please clue me in then because I have no idea.
  7. rluzinski
    Thanks!
  8. rluzinski
    Is it true that some bleacher tickets can't be purchased until two hours before the game? The only tickets I am aware of that you can't buy right away are the Uecker seats.
  9. rluzinski
    That statement is nonsensical for about a half a dozen different reasons.
  10. rluzinski
    We could come up with a lot of reasonable explanations. I just want to see evidence that it's true first. I have no link but I recall seeing a study that showed no hangover effect from the HR derby. As I alluded to earlier, some of the problem is when some guy hits 26 HRs in the first half and people expect him to keep up that pace in the second half. Take the 10 best hitters at the break and they are practically guaranteed to do worse in the second half.
  11. rluzinski
    Betancourt projects to do much better than he did in April and May so I have no idea what you are suggesting. And projections are more of an educated guess than some kind of prognostication.
  12. rluzinski
    Wow, Yuni got his OBP to .270 so it's time to start trying to throw that in his detractor's faces? What kind of bizarro world have I stepped into? Let's be objective here: Current Line: .252 / .270 / .373 ZiPS ROS: .265 / .290 / .397 I don't think there's any question that Betancourt has been under performing offensively this year and should be expected to do better going forward. Unfortunately, he still projects to only have a .290 OBP going forward. That largely negates the decent power he has (for a SS). Well, that and his significantly below average defense. Betancourt projected to be around a 0 WAR player when the Brewers traded for him, BTW.
  13. rluzinski
    Did he get signed to some huge deal when I wasn't looking? He has two year remaining on his contact after this year. He'll get $9 mil in 2012 and $10 mil in 2013. He's probably a little above average overall and that's what a guy like that gets paid on the open market. If the Brewers have a prearby guy who could approach that level of production, great. Otherwise, I have little issue with that contract.
  14. rluzinski
    1. Players in the all star game are overproducing on average. 2. I suspect there's some selective memory going on here.
  15. rluzinski
    ZiPS ROS Projections: Betemit: .262 / .326 / .423McGehee: .256 / .309 / .393 He probably represented a decent upgrade over McGehee offensively but when you factor in his apparently very poor defense at third, it would have been a marginal upgrade overall.
  16. rluzinski
    That is beyond silly.
  17. rluzinski
    Before the season, if I told you we were going to trade out best hitting prospect, our best pitching prospect, our starting shortstop and our likely starting centerfielder and we'd finish a cool 10 games over .500, would you have been satisfied? I would not have. And I hope I'm wrong but I don't think 86 wins is going to win the division. The Brewers' record is inline with preseason expectations (85-88 wins according to sims and Vegas). Whether you are personally satisfied with that is something different.
  18. rluzinski
    ZiPS Rest-Of-Season Projections: Weeks: .258/.350/.455 Hart: .272/.332/.481 Hart has more power but get's on base less often. In terms of maximizing runs scored per game, this is a bad move. I understand moving Hart out of the 5 hole (he has said he doesn't like hitting there) but this just doesn't make much sense to me. Weeks is the third best hitter on the team, moving him down 4 spots takes about 70 PA away from him over the course of a year. Of course, I usually don't mind when teams want to walk Fielder to get to a lesser hitter anyway, as it results in more runs scored overall. It does suck late in games, when the Brewers just need one run, though.
  19. rluzinski
    I have long wondered why there isn't some sort of system that does that. The more advanced projection systems adjust for team defense. FIP works very well when your sample is small (like in a half season) because luck plays a huge role in the results of balls in play. If your sample size is huge (a career), ERA pretty much is all you need. In between you want to give the pitcher, the fielders, the park and luck their fair share. Here is an excellent discussion on the topic: http://www.tangotiger.net/solvingdips.pdf Page 18 they come to the conclusion: "So, what we are saying is that we have a 10/6/4 split between pitching/fielding/park, in, that order. Luck plays a part, and that is dependent on the sample size. When n=1, it's almost all luck. When n=1 million, luck is not involved." Over 700 balls-in-play (about a season), they break it up like this: luck : 44% pitch: 28% field: 17% park : 11% This is 8 years old, though, so there might be better stuff out there but clearly, luck still plays a significant role over a season or less.
  20. rluzinski
    1. Fielder: I love patient power hitters and Prince is one of the best. I also like that he seems like a real person, warts and all. I just have to look the other way when a ball comes his way on defense! 2. Weeks: Another patient hitter. It was fun to watch him grow offensively and defensively. 3. Gallardo: I really liked Sheets as well, so I guess I am biased towards home grown starting pitchers. I am pretty apathetic towards Braun. He's obviously a great hitter but I never really cared for his personality. It's not really his cockiness; I just feel like he never turns off the athlete-speak. I appreciate that he always plays at 100%, though.
  21. rluzinski
    "Marcum has never allowed more than 5 unearned runs in a season, and only 13 in his entire 700+ inning career, which you can credit to his obvious mental toughness." What is league average for a pitchers with a smiliar FB/GB ratio? How good was his defense behind him? To presume it is a result of "mental toughness" is quite the stretch. Greinke has played for bad defensive teams and also has had a lot of unearned runs. Without knowing anything more, I can't really conclude anything but the obvious. The fact that you think you've made a strong argument proving Marcum's strong mental toughness and Greinke's lack of it with a few unerned run totals is puzzling, to say the least. EDIT: "The league average for (ERA-RA) in the NL is 0.36 this year. Last year it was 0.37. The year before it was 0.33. In his career, Greinke has given up an average number of unearned runs per nine innings, despite his defense sucking during his career." I like to see this kind of data a lot more than anecdotal evidence.
  22. rluzinski
    If hating some players or the manager make following them more fun then by all means do so. You think rabid Brewer fans are willing themselves to dislike RR and some players in order to increase their enjoyment of the team? I knew I wouldn't like RR's managing style even before he played a single game for the Brewers. He made it clear he was going to be "Running Ron" no matter what. I certainly did not anticipate him falling in love with guys like Gomez and Kotsay, however. Every time he pencils those guys in at #2 and #3 in the batting order, it detracts from my enjoyment of that game. If you want to say I shouldn't let it bother me, fine. Just don't suggest that I WANT to dislike RR. He plays a brand of baseball I don't think maximizes the odds of my favorite team winning, so it pains me when I am subjected to him trying to "make things happen".
  23. rluzinski
    He certainly fits Melvin's mold. Averagish hitter, very bad defender (at least according to UZR and Tango's fan scouting report). Yipee.
  24. rluzinski
    Is that a vote for Axford or just a general comment?
  25. rluzinski
    Yes, Yuni has lost his starting spot to Josh FRIGGIN' Wilson because RR has been reading too many blogs. Can we please not do this here?
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