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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    It's always interesting how two people can see the same thing and come away with COMPLETELY different takes. He didn't run because he thought it was foul, or at least wanted to sell it as foul. That is VERY Counsell-esque if was trying to sell the foul. And when he was called out, he just looked like a guy who was surprised and/or disappointed that it wasn't called foul. The way you characterized it was that he didn't even bother to run it out, which is NOT what happened.
  2. rluzinski
    I want average defense and an OBP over .300 from a SS. Betancourt will not do either but Furcal should still be able to. He's also a good fit for the Crew in that it will take cash not real prospects to get him.
  3. rluzinski
    It's not that people don't think McGehee CAN do it, they just find it unlikely. For reference, here are their rest of season ZiPS projections: Weeks: .255 / .349 / .451McGehee: .257 / .311 / .387 McGehee could do much better than that projection and still not approach Weeks' so I am not very optimistic. And even then, the Brewers have been outscored on the year, so there's reason to believe that even matching Weeks' production might not be enough.
  4. rluzinski
    It's a fair concern but 2B is just an easier position overall. I realize that some foot work changes but the transition is pretty easy for SS's. It really makes no sense that Betancourt is still even considered a SS because he has the range of a slow thirdbasemen.
  5. rluzinski
    3-6 weeks is a lot. Take the average of that (4.5 weeks) and we aren't looking to get Weeks back until the start of September. I hope the Brewers can find a decent replacement for Weeks but Betancourt's defense is so atrociousness at SS that I'd love for Melvin to kill two birds with one stone. Trade for a SS and shift Betancourt over to second, where his terrible range will be less costly. When Weeks come back, Betancourt could be the primary back up in the middle infield.
  6. rluzinski
    Last 4 starts: 25.2 IP, 1.40 ERA, 34 SO, 7 BB. .622 OPS against While his results prior to that didn't have me jumping off a ledge, I would be lying if I said that I wasn't concerned at all. His good peripherals overall and his last four starts have made me confident that he will finish strong, though.
  7. rluzinski
    When Melvin said that he addressed the Brewers greatest need by trading for K-Rod, I realized that the Brewers left side of the infield was going to remain very bad. Now, unless Melvin can pull a rabbit out of his... err.. hat, you can add 2B to that.
  8. rluzinski
    Wow, I think I want to upgrade Counsell's spot now!
  9. rluzinski
    With 57 games left, Zach should get 11 games (66 IP). If we say 2 runs per start (3.00 ERA), Zach has the potential to drop his ERA to 3.88 with a stellar 2.52 ERA in the second half I'd guessing closer to 75 IP and a 3.2 ERA but yeh, I think it should be a great second half for him.
  10. rluzinski
    Ankle injuries can heal in a week or a year. We can speculate all we want but who the hell knows. There was a real chance that before this injury, Melvin had convinced himself that he was fine with the infielders he had. Assuming Weeks will be out at least 15 days, I don't think he can say that anymore.
  11. rluzinski
    WAR: Weeks: 3.8Fielder: 3.3Betancourt: -.4McGehee: -.5 Total: 6.2 WAR Assuming that is a fair representation them, that works out to around average for 2/3rds of a year. "I'm awaiting the Gamel/Betancourt/McGehee/Fielder infield..." I would completely disregard that as a possibility but Melvin has shown a complete disregard for defense so...
  12. rluzinski
    Rolled it stretching for first on an infield single. X-rays were negative but he could barely put any pressure on it. I think he will be out for a few weeks at least. What the HELL do the Brewers do? With the pieces they have, you almost have to have Counsell and Wilson platoon at SS and move Betancourt over. Counsell is still an above average defensive SS and Betancourt may be the worst, so it would be stupid not to. I think Melvin needs to make a move quick! An starting infield that includes McGehee, Betancourt and Counsell/Wilson would be embarrassing.
  13. rluzinski
    Counsell is overmatched, case closed. Is that supposed to be a compelling argument? I can't help but notice that some of his apologists are among those who are beating the drums the most loudly for Yuni/McGehee- and to a lesser extent Kotsay. Why is that? If someone is "beating the drums" for Yuni, wouldn't they be supporting him? Not reallya phrase I use, though. I guess I don't understand why it is OK that he's wasting a roster spot. Down the stretch, this team needs a competent pinch hitter- especially against righties, and Counsell is an automatic out. Look all around the league. Backup shortstops in general are TERRIBLE hitters and should be ahead of only the backup catcher with regard to pinch hitting. SS's as a whole are batting .263/.317/.377/.694. The typical backup SS throws up something like a .225/.290/.340/.630 line! I would be more concerned with RR not relegating Counsell to the last guy off the bench. The reason some aren't getting all worked up is that the backup SS can't have much of an impact either way. Counsell is probably in line to get another 75 AB or so. He has a ROS ZiPS projection of .232/.304/.329 and still seems to play good defense. Yeh, I'd like to upgrade to an average backup SS but I'm much more concerned about other areas of the team right now, IMO. It's a matter of priority.
  14. rluzinski
    I've said this many times but even a season's worth of UZR is a relatively small sample. It's analogous to half a season of batting stats. On top of that, there is some subjectiveness with recording the vector and velocity of the ball. I think there is little value to in-season UZR. For whatever it's worth, I don't think McGehee has been that bad defensively. Most thirdbasemen show little range. That is a function of the average thirdbasemen not having much range and also not having much opportunity to display it (balls get there so fast). Do I think he's average defensively? Probably not. I don't think he's a liability there, however.
  15. rluzinski
    I assumed hyperbole but WOW!
  16. rluzinski
    That sums up my opinion as well. He's a good fielding, no hit back up middle infielder. Upgrading his spot is SO not a priority. "Maybe it is because I am watching the Braves as they come to bat in the 19th inning vs the Pirates, but I have no idea what endder was trying to say in the last post. Was it baseball nihilism? It doesn't matter what anyone does?" You've been around here for a decade so I'm pretty sure you know he's alluding to sample size.
  17. rluzinski
    Compared to any of the traditional stats, OPS is the greatest thing since sliced bread. It just underestimates the value of OBP. wOBA properly weighs the value of batting events (out, HBP, walk, single, double, triple and HR). Obviously, that is not going to be available at the park but it's roughly proportional to 1.8 x OBP + SLG. If I'm comparing two players, I look at the difference in their SLG and add that to twice the difference of their OBP. So again, roughly speaking, these two players are fairly equal in terms of their impact on team runs: OBP / SLG / OPS.375 / .400 / .775.325 / .500 / .825
  18. rluzinski
    I think those shots are at too high an angle, don't like them. After seeing those Fangrapgh screen grabs, it's hard to argue against their top 3 picks. Much closer to the action and still almost a straight view.
  19. rluzinski
    Perhaps you wouldn't be as skeptical about adjustments if you took the time to learn more about them. The first google hit for "park factor" brings up ESPN's park factor page, which explains how it is calculated. How you describe it is 100% incorrect. To be fair, ESPN's park factors DO fluctuate a lot from year-to-year because they are only using one year's worth of data. A better way is to use multiple years of data and to regress. I know Baseballreference.com (which is where OPS+ comes from uses multiple years. Of course, I'm not a big fan of OPS either, but it's WAYYYY better than BA!
  20. rluzinski
    Are you accusing ESPN of anti-Brewerism? I agree that the 75 cutoff is arbitrary but I don't think it was chosen to make the Brewers look bad. "I don't think this is a big shock that McGehee and Betancourt have had down years. Counsell obviously has been bad. Kotsay however has helped win some games." Kotsay has a .56 WAR from batting. Unfortunately, a couple of large defensive miscues probably pushes that into negative territory.
  21. rluzinski
    Most pitches aren't put into play, so that view, while very interesting, probably isn't showing what's most important. The location and movement of a pitch is So important that the view behind the pitcher almost has to be the default. I have two suggestions, however. First, I wish the Brewers would go to the Target Field view of being directly behind and above the pitcher, Second, with widescreen the standard now, there is plenty of unused area to the left and right of the pitcher/batter during pitches. The Foxtrack thingy makes excellent use of some of the right side of that dead space. I would suggest using the left side to show an alternate viewing angle. It could either be the angle you are advocating or if that view would be too small, perhaps just half the infield (alternate it depending on batter handedness). Not sure how that would work when quickly changing views when a ball is hit into play but it would be interesting.
  22. rluzinski
    It's obviously a function of the pitcher AND batter. This was settled about two decades ago.
  23. rluzinski
    I sometimes get the impression that people are more interested in letting others know that they AREN'T familiar with another musical artist's work, as if it's some kind of badge of honor when the artist has enjoyed some level of commercial success. It just seems disingenuous when someone types "she had a hit?" when they could answer their own own question quicker than it took to post it. Winehouse should not be compared to someone like Cobain or Hendrix, nor should she be compared to Kesha or Spears, IMO.
  24. rluzinski
    Carroll: .211/.282/.408/.690 Boggs: .218/.322/.376/.698 From 2010: RHB: Overall: .250/.313/.388/.701 vs. RHB: .245/.304/.378/.682 vs. LHB: .262/.333/.408/.741 LHB: Overall: .256/.327/.396/.723 vs. RHB: .261/.332/.408/.739 vs. LHB: .232/.299/.343/.642 http://www.baseball-refer...b&lg=MLB&year=2011#plato There are some issues with this data (includes pitchers and switch hitters, pool of players allowed to bat without platoon advantage is not the same as those that bat with the platoon advantage, etc...). Still, it gives us an idea what we are to expect. Just eyeballing that, we might expect this if Carrol and Boggs always had the platoon advantage: Carroll vs. LHB: .220/.300/.430/.730 Boggs vs. RHB: .225/.330/.390/.720 Assuming Boggs gets 2/3rds of the plate appearances: Total: .225/.320/.405/.725 Huge uncertainty in all those calculations but that would certainly suck coming from a corner outfielder. I too think people might overestimate what $9 mil buys you on the open market these days.
  25. rluzinski
    Being aggressive with sending runners home with one out is not smart at all.
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