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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Brewers are are a ridiculous 45-15 and home. I have imagine they have a great chance of beating the Brewer's record (53-28 in 1992 the franchise record?) but overall: "1932 New York Yankees were 62-15 (.805) at home. That's the best since 1900 according to Elias. During the modern era of 162 games it's the 1961 New York Yankees at 65-16 (.802)" http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Which_team_had_the_best_MLB_home_record_in_history
  2. rluzinski
    Without looking, I have to believe that this streak is a result of insane starting pitching more than anything else.
  3. rluzinski
    Most of what I post here is an opinion that I attempt to support with various levels of evidence. In this case, I offered no evidence, as the topic itself doesn't really allow for it. In those cases where I am relying on only my gut, I do my best to make that clear. Indeed, the very first sentence I posted on this topic was: "I feel like the Brewers have been a very carefree, confident group since at least 2008. "That post appeared to prompt you to write:"... instead people try to using dominant and convincing words to prove the point when the stats are not available or cannot be found." If you want to charge me with trying to write convincingly, guilty as charged. Anything else seems unfair. These days, you will often find me using disclaimers like "I think", I feel", "IMO" (does anyone even use that anymore?) to make it clear when what follows is only a personal opinion (I say "these days" because I'm sure rereading my posts from 2005 would make me cringe).
  4. rluzinski
    We also have to remember that Moneyball wasn't an academic study. It was designed to entertain and sell books.
  5. rluzinski
    Nothing about last years team looked carefree. They looked lifeless.It's the whole chicken and egg thing. Any team would look confident and carefree if they won every game. And I'd LOVE to see a 50 win team look confident and carefree. Running around, looking oblivious to the fact that they get destroyed yet again. Fans would simply say they were apathetic towards winning and delusional for acting so confident. My comment was with respect to the general personalities of the players. Many of them have come up as a group and they come across to me as pretty laid back (well, Fielder may have matured a little slower http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ).
  6. rluzinski
    Yeh, it never really made much sense. Sure, a players with Fielder's body type probably doesn't project well into their 30's but they are already a free agent by then so that matters little to the team that drafts them.
  7. rluzinski
    I feel like the Brewers have been a very carefree, confident group since at least 2008. As we all know, they've even gotten a bit of a reputation for it. The biggest difference this year is that they have the most talent they've had since perhaps the World Series year. They have certainly made the most of it recently but I give the players 99% of the credit for that.
  8. rluzinski
    Wow, that's how an ump handles it. Great job being proactive. It's pathetic what the ump did after Braun got thrown at TWICE. I have a feeling Zambrano will be back. That's way too much money to walk away from. In the end it comes down to $$$$ for most, and Zambrano has never struck me as someone with high integrity a la Meche. Integrity? Please. It's called common sense. I'd love to see you walk away from tens of millions of dollars.
  9. rluzinski
    Only in baseball do fans go on and on about how important it is to have a manager who the players like. I have no doubt it is a benefit to the team but it is just so way down the list of "what makes teams win games".
  10. rluzinski
    Of course they are illegal. No different than purchasing a bootleg DVD or CD. Go to nfljerseysupply.com. The DOJ seized that website. The team licencing fees might be more than what these are going for. Do people just want to pretend that there's a chance these are legit? I won't pretend that I've never downloaded music illegally but I didn't try to convince myself I might not be stealing.
  11. rluzinski
    First 45 Road Games: 16-29 Next 16 Road Games: 10-6 Total: 26-35 They still have a much larger than average home/road split but they've actually played above expectations on the road lately. Hell, since starting 9-19 on the road, they've been a game over .500! I hope no one thought they could get rich by betting against the Brewers on the road lately....
  12. rluzinski
    I would love having a worry-free September. I would root for a 95 win season or whatever. And I'd be fine having more time to savor a divisional win. I think the Cards will hang around for awhile though. Brewers will lose 4 of 5 at some point.
  13. rluzinski
    Five weeks is a return on September 1st. 20 more games, at least I bet.
  14. rluzinski
    In one possible scenario, he has perhaps the largest (true talent) reverse platoon split ever. In another, it's a fluky small sample. Career splits: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=westbja01&year=Career&t=p#plato One year splits = EVIL. Good time to give Kottaras a start.
  15. rluzinski
    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1943&position=P#pitchtypeYou can look at it on a "per start" basis here: http://brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php Keep in mind that categorizing pitch types is not an exact science. Some types of pitches are very similar to each other in terms of velocity and spin. Slider/slurve/curve, for instance Also, when Sheets was around, people were always calling on him to throw more change ups as well. It might have been in his best interest to do it but there's a reason when a pitcher is resistant to throwing a certain pitch; he knows it's not a particularly good one of his. On that fangraphs link, if you look at the value of his changeups, you can see that it has not performed well for him over the years. That probably doesn't mean he should never throw it but probably not very often. Data from Greinke's last start: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=8&day=7&year=2011&game=gid_2011_08_07_milmlb_houmlb_1%2F&pitchSel=425844&prevGame=gid_2011_08_07_milmlb_houmlb_1%2F&prevDate=87 Says he threw 4 changeups,
  16. rluzinski
    I don't even understand why we are trying to add up all the games Betancourt supposedly won or lost. It's terribly subjective and doesn't reveal anything. We already know that a player who puts up the numbers Betancourt has this year is significantly worse than an average player.
  17. rluzinski
    I highly doubt that.I'd take Kotsay's offense and defense over Overbay's at any position. Overbay hasn't had more than 70 RBI in a season since 2006. He's probably home counting the money he "earned" which was a lot for a guy as non productive as Overbay.ZiPS ROS Projection:[/b]Overbay: .243/.325/.404Kotsay: .259/.307/.370 I would prefer Overbay as a pinch hitter or at first base. I would prefer neither play the outfield for the Brewers.
  18. rluzinski
    O, I agree completely. It's easy to point to a HR and say it was hit because the pitch location was poor but pitchers throw pitches in the meat of the strike zone all the time. Estimating how good or bad a pitch is incredibly hard since much of the effectiveness of a pitch is dependent on the full repertoire of the pitcher. It wouldn't surprise me if Greinke's fastball command hasn't changed at all. Maybe he's just throwing his off speed stuff with better command, making his fastball more effective. Who knows.
  19. rluzinski
    The issue isn't whether you are summing or averaging. In your example, the odd 2 months represents 30% of 25%(7.5%) of the total either way. The average is just the total divided by 4, after all. The issue of estimating true talent with just WAR is that each component of WAR (offense, fielding and base running) needs to be regressed by different amounts. The correct way (I think) is to take the components of WAR and regress them each separately before adding them up. The better a particular metric can capture true talent, the less you have to regress. The interesting thing is that if you just care abotu what the player did (you aren't estimating true talent), you still need to regress UZR. You don't need to regress the offensive stats, since a single is a single. Here is an interesting thread on the topic: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/does_one_year_uzr_tell_us_exactly_what_happened/ They also discuss evidence of a systematic bias in the raw data used by UZR.
  20. rluzinski
    No its not, it may look long normally because he gets good extension, but no good hitters have long swings. Id say right now it looks like his timing if off and hes getting under the ball a little too much. He should try to work some walks and tickle to the ball to right and break out of itI think it's always long as well. He missed song pitches. It happens.
  21. rluzinski
    I find it really annoying that Narveson could have been skipped at least a few times but wasn't. Now, he can't when he's not available.
  22. rluzinski
    WAR is a counting stat, so you can just add it (and then regress if you are looking for an estimate of true talent). Overall playing time does come into play, though. Just like comparing HR totals, a guy who's played 600 games over 4 years is going to have higher total than one who played 300, all else equal. Of course, if one guy played more because he was more durable, I don't think you automatically ignore that. UZR/150 is a rate stat, so you have to be careful about just averaging them if the sample sizes are different. For instance: Player 1: 5 UZR/150 (150 games)Player 2: 5 UZR/150 (30 games) The first is "better" in two ways. First, he saved more overall runs (5 runs vs player 2's 1 run). Second, it is more likely that player 1 is the superior defender (although by no means is it certain). "Thank you for the reply. I figured that it had to be partially league based or something. Also didn't know the different baseball sites calculated WAR differently." WAR is just a basic framework. I think it is a good thing that different sites are using slightly different methodologies when utilizing that framework. A "living" metric will be allowed to get better as time goes on.
  23. rluzinski
    Using 4+ years worth of fangraph's WAR is a pretty decent way of estimate their true talent over that period. I don't think there is a better quantitative way of doing it right now. I wouldn't use one year's worth of war without regressing it a lot, tough.
  24. rluzinski
    "RR manages his bullpen to a system, but at least it's a system that works well (as long as you have the players to fit it)." It works well only in insulating the manager and organization from criticism. It's OK to have Loe come in against a lefty with the bases loaded and 1 out in the 6th in a tie game because our two best relievers don't pitch in the 6th. Most fans will buy into that so if I were RR, I would be tempted to employ that system as well.
  25. rluzinski
    Fantasy baseball doesn't care about defense and many don't even give you points for a walk. Yuni starts almost every day and has a little pop, so I wouldn't think he's that bad of a guy to start, is he?
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