rluzinski
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Everything posted by rluzinski
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Sorry but it's hard to get too upset when a loss means a 7.5 game lead. It's an odd luxury to have as a Brewer fan.
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I really wish we had our best defenders out there. Man o man.
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However, a great GM alone does not really make a great front office either, as there needs to be good scouting and statistical analysis going on to actually give that GM good information to work with. Doug Melvin without Gord Ash and Jack Z (in the early years) would probably not have the Brewers in the state they are in. That's a good point. People pay to watch the players, not the general manager, hence, even with a GM's importance in getting the players in the first place, it is the players who are what is in demand in the market, and they get the biggest cut (other than the owner). People pay to watch wins and the players are paid in proportion to how many wins they are worth, relative to their peers.
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Teams either think that managers and GMs aren't that important or that they are all roughly the same. Is there any other explanation?
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I don't think having a balanced lineup makes much of a difference but you should be able to explore that using this: http://lineupsimulator.com/ Purposely making outs in front of our two .950 guys may hurt the Brewers more than having an uneven lineup. As for run variance, I've looked at it many times throughout the years: http://rluzinski.blogspot...earch?q=run+distribution It seems that every team is accused of having an "inconsistent offense" every year. I think it is just largely the mature of baseball. Teams might average 4.25 runs/game but those 6+ run games means you have to have a lot more games where you score 2 or 3 runs. If you want to look at the Brewers this year, you first have to estimate the expected run distribution for the Brewers' specific RPG (like I did in that link).
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I was figuring you would come in with the statistics! A drop of 35 points in OPS over two years is a pretty big difference. Interesting that runs are the same but slugging and OBP are down. Part of what made me think about this is there were some people on this board saying the Brewers couldnt be considered serious threats with Yuni and Casey in our lineup but every team we faced seemed to have less threats than we did. We have Prince and Braun who are elite. Hart and Weeks (when healthy) are very good. Lucroy and Morgan are good for their positions. I dont feel like we have a dominant lineup but when matched up against a lot of the teams we have played I like ours a lot more. I may have implied otherwise but runs/game are also going down: 2008: 4.652009: 4.612010: 4.382011: 4.25 Brewers' offense has the third highest OPS in the NL right now: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/league/nl/sort/OPS/order/true Closer to middle of the road for rpg though (4.36). I think they need to sacrifice bunt more.
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Even the last few years has seen some significant reduction in offense: 2009: .262/.333/.418/.750 2010: .257/.325/.403/.728 2011: .254/.320/.395/.715 Teams are still averaging around 4.2 runs/game though, so not exactly small-ball era either.
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While we're at it, it's a bit surprising to see how many successful managers had pretty much instant success, winning a division or even pennant in their first season. I don't find that surprising at all, since success on the field is largely a result of having talented players. There's a reason why the average manager makes peanuts compared to the players.
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Everything is out of stock.
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Can you provide compelling evidence of who would have provided equal production to Betancourt during his hot streak? Batters in a hot streak are expected to perform only slightly better going forward. That's what history has shown. So the real question is, who did the Brewers have that projected to perform better than Betancourt's projection at that time? The answer is Haiston, although you might be right that he's better off playing in other places right now.
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Narv to bullpen, Marco in rotation?
rluzinski replied to bcvilly24's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Narveson has only faced 208 batters as a reliever. That is simply not enough data to conclude that he's basically a freak of nature and pitches better as a starter than reliever. The average pitcher preforms MUCH better as a reliever for obvious reasons. -
No one expected his hot streak to continue but there was some question regarding whether Betancourt had really "adjusted his approach". The implication was that perhaps those adjustments allowed him to instantly become a better hitter.
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McCalvy said on Twitter, last night I believe, that Lopez is pretty much a reserve at this point. So from everyday starter to last guy off the bench in 44 AB. RR works in mysterious ways.
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I think you laid that all out very well and I agree completely. I just hope the Melvin adds one or two more options off the bench before the playoffs. I think we should really resist the urge of turning this into another general discussion on Kotsay. The topic of this thread was Kotsay's role on the team as a pinch hitter and whether we should expect him to perform well in high leverage situations going forward.
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Kotsay's line as a PH: .286/.333/.286/.619 (28 AB)The 2011 NL as PH .216/.293/.321/.614. I think that tells me more about the quality of the type of batter that's asked to PH more than anything else. Making up numbers, we might expect those guys to OPS .650 as a starter, or something like that. Kotsay has performed about as expected as a PH because he's not a very good hitter overall (yes I know, if all you need is a single, he's done fine). There is no question that players perform worse as a pinch hitter than when they start (it's been statistically proven). It's also fair to assume that some players will perform better in that role than others. I don't know if it's automatically fair to assume that veteran players will limit the gap between their expected performance as a starter and as a pinch hitter. I know it's stated as fact and it wouldn't surprise me if it were true but I've never seen any statistical evidence of it. I have to imagine it's been looked at, however.
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That is a terrible analogy. In fact, the opposite of what you are suggesting is true. I'm leaning on high school statistics to tell me that there is too much statistical noise in a small sample to give us much useful information. Whether it's baseball or flipping coins, the noise largely drowns out the signal. Your sundial is telling you that it MIGHT be useful, however.
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Projection systems attempt to intelligently and objectively looks at past performance to predict future performance. The methodologies they employ are based on statistical studies. For instance, if a player who's been a poor batter his whole life has two great months, his projection will go up but only by a modest amount. Why? Because history shows us that is what happens on the average. If a batter overperforms in the clutch over 50-some AB, history tells us that he will NOT continue to do so. Are there exceptions? Of course. Does any of us know ahead of time who are the exceptions? No. All I know is it's unlikely that Betancourt will continue to beat his batting projections by anywhere near as much as he has been the last two months. It's also unlikely that Kotsay will continue to bat three-something with RISP. That doesn't make me a pessimist; that doesn't keep me from enjoying this wonderful season. It's just the reality of the situation.
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I posted his current projection in this thread. No one expects great hitter off the bench but I expect a projected OPS higher than .650. "To some, it doesn't matter what a player does for the Brewers this season, it's more important what he did over the past 4 seasons and what advanced statistics suggest he may do in the future." Give me ONE good reason that I should limit myself to only looking at what Kotsay has done with the Brewers when trying to estimate his ability to play baseball? And you all really need to get over this "advanced statistics" silliness. Just look at his BA/OBP/SLG from the last few years, weighing his most recent performances more and also taking his age into account. That's not an "advanced", it's common sense.
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If we are talking about what Kotsay has done so far this year, yes it's great that he's done well in some important situations. The question is what do we expect going forward though, isn't it?
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What about BA, OBP and SLG? Is that too advanced for you? Since 2006: .255/.313/.369 And he's been even worse than that this year. As for RISP split (that's kind of advanced!) Kotsay batted .179 w/RISP in 2010. Are you honestly suggesting he might have aquired some clutch skill between 2010 and 2011 and that we should continue to expect him to overperform like that with runners on? I find that absurd. It seems like a significant portion of baseball fans use the results of a handful of game ending AB's to determine if they like a particular player or not. A fan can like anyone they want but that has almost nothing to do with how talented or valuable a batter is going forward.
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ZiPS ROS Projection: .250/.301/.338/.639 I would rather have a better hitter that doesn't have to perform significantly better in high leverage situations to worth anything. Why? Because even if Kotsay has done well in high leverage situations this year (I don't believe he has when you look at all his high leverage AB's this year), there is little reason to think it will continue, at least not to the magnitude required to make him even an average hitter in that situation. It's very easy to identify players who have performed well in the clutch for a certain period of time. Good luck telling me who is going to perform better than expected going forward, however.
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As the #1 or #2, the Brewers will play Atlanta anyway, right? I can't see why the Brewers would want to NOT be the #1 then. It's not like we should expect the #1 to go to the World Series even half the time anyway.
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I agree that i Wolf keeps winning, I don't care who catches him... since... well... the Brewers won anyway.
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It looks pretty clear to me that Wolf is throwing whatever he wants to throw but who knows.