My goodness, someone doesn't like the statistical analysis of baseball. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Let's set the record straight: Sabermetrics attempts to estimate the dollar value of performance by each player. Closers are asked to perform in higher leverage situations and sabermetrics adjusts for that. A run saved by a closer is worth more than a run saved by the the long relief guy. I think everyone agrees with that. The disagreement comes with estimating how much more that run saved is worth. It appears that the average GM places more value on 9th innning performance than current analytical analysis does. So, it's not "dumb to put money in the bullpen," it's just not advised to put MORE money in the bullpen than is justified. With Hoffman, though, the problem wasn't just with overestimating leverage, it was also (IMO) overestimating his true ability. If Melvin was expecting another sub 3.0 ERA from Hoffman, he was problably expecting too much. I won't pretend that Hoffman is an easy guy to project though, so there's a lot of room for disagreement.