rluzinski
-
Posts
9,362 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings
Milwaukee Brewers Videos
2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors
Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources
2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project
2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by rluzinski
-
What the hell IS luck then?
-
Should a team pay $10MM per year for an average pitcher? I don't think so. Prior to this year (Lot's of talk about market downturn) teams were paying about $9 mil for an average player.
-
I think opportunity is going to play a big role here. What % of PA are with runners on?
-
Sheethead, you said: "The variance is way too big to contribute it all to dumb luck. There has to be another variable(s) at play here. " That just isn't true. As I've said multiple times, I don't know why Prince has a large RISP split this year but it could most certainly be simply random chance. This is not some one in a billion occurrence that NEEDS some other explanation. It's fun to speculate but none of us will ever know if it's luck or something else.
-
Fun series so far!
-
Prince Fielder: PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP SO BA OBP SLG OPS BABIP RISP, 2010 83 64 10 0 0 1 14 5 16 .156 .349 .203 .553 .208 Projected 83 64 18 3 0 4 9 1 14 .284 .381 .544 .925 .365His projected numbers are just his CHONE updated projection. We'd expect slightly different numbers from any batter w/RISP but it's good enough for this purpose. What I see is in a paltry 83 PA w/RISP, he's gotten 8 less hits than expected. He's striking out about the same as you would expect but he's getting walked and hit a lot more. His BABIP is much lower than expected and he's had almost no extra base hits w/RISP. It could be because of the stress of becoming a free agent in 16 months (he apparently had no such pressure last year, since he had an OPS of 1.049 w/RISP?). It can't be ruled out But it could so very easily just be random chance. In sports and in life, people are often underestimating how much random variance affects the numbers. Some see a split like this and think it's impossible to have happened randomly. I think, "Looking at the top three hitters for each team in the league, what are the odds that one of them gets 8 less hits than expected over 83 PAs w/RISP in a given year?"
-
Hundreds of players in the league with dozens of possible splits to look at and baseball fans never want to attribute any of the goofy ones to random variance. Fielders split could EASILY be random. And I will continue to claim that is the most likely explanation as everything else is just blind speculation. This is like no meat thing all over again. It's like sitting around a blackjack table and having people explain to me that 3 consecutive blackjacks by the dealer couldn't POSSIBLY be random chance.
-
I find that comment by Hart as much of a throwaway comment as any other sound bite you get from a professional athlete. What, he took extra BP, which added .200 OPS to his line? Maybe it's true in this case but these guys say so much stuff that I take it all with a grain of salt.
-
What bugs me about the Gomez situation is how predictable it was. Gomez has never had a good OBP in the majors and projected to have a poor one again this year. Despite all that, the Brewers bat him 2nd and hopes he has a good OBP. Play the percentages already.
-
As End pointed out, Fielder did great in high leverage situations last year and so far this year, hasn't. As is usual, the most likely explanation for that curious split is dumb luck.
-
Suppan might still have a little value as a reliever but as a starter, he projects to be basically replacement level.
-
I would find it very difficult to root for a Brewer's team with Ozzie Guillen running the show. As for first base, there's a reason why it's the last stop before DH. It's the easiest position to learn and play.
-
I was wondering Is Braun playing Hurt?
rluzinski replied to brewmann04's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Braun lying makes more sense than it just being a coincidence? -
Doug, As I already mentioned, Suppan was a stupid signing because he only projected to be average for the first year of his contract. Davis was signed to a one year deal for peanuts and had a decent year last year. The Wolf signing wasn't great but not bad either. You seem to be contendinh that we should expect, averagish older players to be either OK or terrible. Their projections represent their average expected performance, so how could that be true? And for Melvin to find affordable starting pitchers who don't rely as much on defense, he needs to sign high strikeout, high walk flyball pitchers. Even then, I'm not sure how much that would help. Some you'd have to think.
-
That's the entire problem right there. The average becomes a curve, but that has very little to do with what will happen with any individual player. Some players hit a wall and call it quits, some slowly fade like Suppan, sometimes it happens at 33, sometimes at 38. And some 34 year olds have a career year. You seem to be suggesting that older players' projected performances have a higher level of uncertainty. I'm not sure that's true but if it is, that doesn't mean it's a bad value. The average is the average. If people think there's a mountain of 34 year olds blowing up, there's also a mountain of 34 year olds destroying the opposition.
-
When players are old there's a big risk they will decline sharply and suddenly, get hurt, or both. Aging curves show the average drop off of talent. It's not like there's some cliff that 33 year olds fall off of. Wolf projected to be a little above average this year and below average in his final year. Suppan projected to be average his first year and well below average his final year.
-
It's almost like the Brewers were rarely playing for anything meaningful during Jenkins' career.
-
Not often is it just one or the other. There's a lot of dice rolls in baseball. It's not very often that those dice rolls average out to exactly the expected number. The Brewers have had some bad luck but have also played poorly, IMO. They certainly don't "deserve" to be even .500, though.
-
It's probably too strong to say it's been discredited. There is little statistical evidence to support it. You would think there would be detectable evidence if the effect was large.
-
I have no issue with signing a starting pitcher who projects to be average over the course of his contract. The problem is when Melvin signs a pitcher who is on the wrong side of 30 to a multiyear deal and he projects to be average for the upcoming season.
-
The Brewers have a nice offense but that is somehwhat offset by poor fielding. Starting pitching-wise, they have an average #1 starting pitcher for cheap, a decent #3 under contract for a few years and not much else. Right now, not a terrible team (certainly not as bad as their record suggests) but not a good one either. It's very difficult for a team with a sub $90 mil payroll to compete without a nice amount of pre-freeagent talent. The Brewers need guys like Escobar, Gamel and Lecroy to develop into at least average players. That allows Melvin to spend the excess money on other needs. No, the Brewers won't be buying an ace but a couple of average starters (that aren't 34) signed to reasonable contracts could go a long way to making the Brewers into an 85 win team and a fringle playoff team. But I guess I don't really agree with the concept of a comprehensive rebuild to begin with. Unless they are in the middle of a playoff race (not 4.5 games back in July, with 4 teams ahead of them), a team like the Brewers need to be willing to trade a player like Fielder if the return is good. And if you have yound, decent talent, just hold onto them.
-
The car had seats TRIMMED with leather. The rest was suede. I know the guy can lose it on a moment's notice but WOW.
-
I was wondering Is Braun playing Hurt?
rluzinski replied to brewmann04's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
His average was .359 when he was hit on the elbow. I know that's a small sample, but I don't think there's a question the elbow has slowed him down a bit.An injury might be slowing him down but that .359 was unsustainable. There are no true .359 hitters in the whole league. Mauer is probably the closest though. -
If you believe it to be true, then you should be able to define what those qualities are that led you to that conclusion. And if you can define the qualities, they can be objectively tested. The batting order does matter though, so it's not like there is no statistical justification for believing that team makeup doesn't matter. As for the consistency of an offense, it's a criticism that seems to be levied on many teams' offenses but I don't think there's much to it, personally. Power teams will have a slightly higher run distribution but in terms of WP, I'm not sure it has much of an effect. The Brewers had a couple of blowouts early, so I think that sticks into people's minds, but every team has them.