Jump to content
Want to get your head around free agents the WORLD CHAMPION Brewers can spend on this winter? Click here and check out our top 75 free agents ranking! ×
Brewer Fanatic

rluzinski

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,362

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    A player's defensive numbers can jump around so much from year to year for the exact reason you allude to; the chances/season are fairly limited. A year of defensive stats is like 200 PA worth of offensive stats. It's like calling into question OPS, because a batter hits .735, .880 and .750 in successive 200 PA samples. It's just the way it is. I don't understand your comment about how they exaggerate things. You seem to be implying that the true spread in defensive talent should be larger than what defensive stats suggest? And to understand how a player can be -30 for a season, read these: http://www.baseballthinkf...n/lichtman_2003-03-14_0/ http://www.baseballthinkf...n/lichtman_2003-03-21_0/ http://www.insidethebook....earch_assistant_speak/#3
  2. rluzinski
    Get Edmonds out of CF already. His range is terrible.
  3. rluzinski
    I think it's harsh and childish. The second error was a result of him not being sure if Kattaras was going to get it. It happens.
  4. rluzinski
    Man, another uncompetitive game. Makes it really hard to finish games these days.
  5. rluzinski
    Right, the problem isn't stating "on pace" numbers. It's an easy way to give early season numbers scale. The problem is when "on pace" numbers early in the season are used as a kind of projection. I would hope that knowledable basebal fans know better. Bush won't finish 40 HRs, Braun won't bat .365 for the year and the Brewers won't finish 19-62 at home.
  6. rluzinski
    Yes, let's just use the results of 1 month of gamesand completely ignore everything else. That will obviously yield the most accurate estimate of any player's true ability. I just learned that Andrew Jones is awesome and Prince Fielder is average. Livan Hernandez is going to win the Cy Young award and Josh Beckett is done. Like I said, I have no problem with someone arguing that Hoffman shouldn't be the closer or might not even be very good anymore. I do have a problem with someone convincing themselves that only the results in the 2010 calender year is relevant. It's basically an arbitrary cutoff; as if they skill fairy shows up every off season to reset every player. It's that kind of thinking that causes fans to accuse teams of holding on to a player "just" because of his name.
  7. rluzinski
    True, but Howard also has more hardware than Prince at this point -- Rookie of the Year, MVP, World Series ring, and a pair of NL pennants. That kind of thing tends to factor into contract negotiationsAgents can bring up anything they want but it's mostly a waste of time when other teams give it little or no value. I think most teams are smart enough these days to ignore team accomplishments when estimating the value of a player. Even individual awards have dubious value. Who cares if "selected members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America" thought howard was the best new NL player 5 years ago? What is his projected performance NOW and over the course of his contract? Perhaps I'm overestimating the intelligence of MLB teams these days but I think they've learned a lot over the last 10 or so years.
  8. rluzinski
    You are complanaing about Melvin because he never traded for a "can't miss" young pitcher? While I'm on board with wanting Melvin to try and aquire more high upside pitchers, the reason those kind of guys are available is because they have warts. If they are pre arby can't miss guys, they aren't available.
  9. rluzinski
    Based on what? Ok, so you are just venting. Nothing to really debate about then.
  10. rluzinski
    Exactly. Roughly speaking, add 4% to a team's overall win percentage to come up with expected home W% From year to year, there are always going to be outliers just from the probabilistic nature of baseball. You can use stats 101 to determine that expected spread.
  11. rluzinski
    You always hear people say, "the only reason Player X is even playing after a bad month is because of his name/contract!" To that I say, of course! What the heck do you expect? There's a reason why a guy has a "name" in the league and is making good money. He established a high level of expected performance and was financially compensated for it. When that player struggles over a week or a month, his expected future performance lowers but not not by nearly as much as some "Joe Schmo" that we know little about. That's common sense. Does Hoffman's 2010 perfomance justify taking the closer's role from him? I don't know but I do know that you can't simply ignore that he had a great season last and he's been very good for a long time. That has to be taken into consideration.
  12. rluzinski
    The average team wins about 54% of their home games. That's not much different that a 50/50 split. You make it sound like teams should be expected to win 80% of their home games. The point is, there are litterally HUNDREDS of different splits you can look at, so it's not surprising that you can find some crazy ones.
  13. rluzinski
    Edmonds batting 3rd (sandwiched by 2 other lefties) and playing CF is pretty embarrassing, IMO.
  14. rluzinski
    I don't think it's a realistic goal for the Brewers to be perennial playoff contenders with an $80 mil payroll. The average NL team spent $86 mil this year. That said, that should be enough money for the Brewers to make the playoffs every 5 years or so. If anyone is curious, 2010 team salaries for the NL: No. Team Payroll 1 Chicago Cubs $146,859,000 2 Philadelphia Phillies $141,927,381 3 New York Mets $132,701,445 4 San Fran Giants $97,828,833 5 LADodgers $94,945,517 6 St. Louis Cardinals $93,540,753 7 Houston Astros $92,355,500 8 Atlanta Braves $84,423,667 9 Colorado Rockies $84,227,000 10 Milwaukee Brewers $81,108,279 11 Cincinnati Reds $72,386,544 12 Washington Nats $61,425,000 13 Arizona Dbacks $60,718,167 14 Florida Marlins $55,641,500 15 San Diego Padres $37,799,300 16 Pittsburgh Pirates $34,943,000 Average.... $85,801,930
  15. rluzinski
    Why can't the Brewers win at home/on the road/in day games/at night/on sundays/in games that would result in a sweep/when facing bad starter/when facing whatever team has beat them recently/after getting an early lead/in close and late games.... That MIGHT be half of the ones I've heard over the last 8 years on this messageboard. As Edner said, the most likely answer for this one is luck. The most likely for all the above is luck.
  16. rluzinski
    Based off of Macha's handling of Suppan and Edmonds, I am convinced he thinks it's 2005. That is the only explanation.
  17. rluzinski
    Why did Atlanta have a losing record at home last year, despite finishing 10 games above .500? I don't know for sure but I think it's the same reason for the Brewer's home field woes this year.
  18. rluzinski
    These guys must really have had managers that didn't love them: http://www.plunkeveryone....reaks-jason-kendall.html Of course, I'll never understand how starting a beanball war is supposed to reduce HBPs but hey. A month's worth of data over a season tells us very little anyway. It's always this time of year that fans use all the crazy small sample stats to prove all kinds of things. Going forward, we'll see if Fielder and Weeks get's hit closer to their career rates or their new, "unprotected" rate. And I'd be happy to put my money where my mouth is (donated to bf.net, of course).
  19. rluzinski
    It comes down to who was ready. If both were warmed up and ready to go, it looks like a terrible decision.
  20. rluzinski
    I have to admit this had me laughing pretty well.It may be funny... but shouldn't we be giving him some credit? We are so quick to bash Macha (and Melvin) when things go bad, but when it turns around, they get ignored. I'm not saying I'm a Macha lover, but we should at least be fair in how we treat him. I guess that was my point. Some want to say Macha can't inspire his team but when they go on a tear, his possible positive influence is ignored. I'm right there with ya! Look, I have issues with many of the tactical moves Macha makes (and pretty much any manager to be honest). I just think it's an emotional vent when people try to blame Macha for poor player performance. Hoffman did not blow a bunch of games because he wasn't properly inspired.
  21. rluzinski
    The offense has scored 14 more runs than any other NL team. They are averaging 5.77 runs/game. They have the highest BA, OBP and OPS. They have the second highest SLG. That's insane. Sure, they've been widely inconsistent but they've been a positive overall. I don't believe they are the best offense in the NL, obviously, but I also don't believe their inconsistencies should be expected to continue. They were projected to have an above average offense and so far they have been. The pitching and defense hasn't been good.
  22. rluzinski
    Well, I personally have to give Macha all the credit for that great West Coast road trip. Macha's stoic exterior is clearly acting to keep the Crew calm and focused under pressure. He really kept the players playing hard and believing that they could win, no matter what adversity they ran into. This team believes in themselves and their manager and that's the key difference between perennial playoff teams like the Yankees and the yearly basement dwellers, like the Pirates. Keep it up, Macha!
  23. rluzinski
    How much you wanna bet that there's a Dbacks' fan somewhere complaining about his team always getting owned by some no name pitcher? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  24. rluzinski
    Or "dead arm" is just a layman's term for any number of actual medical conditions? I agree. Hell, he's ahead of Parra in the bullpen, so apparently Parra would be released first!
  25. rluzinski
    Unless a team has infinite financial resources, they should care about service time.
×
×
  • Create New...