rluzinski
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Everything posted by rluzinski
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It's really fun to watch Suppan give up runs against the team that knew better than to resign their "big game pitcher."
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I inquired about a 2011 Malibu 2LT and was told that it was Manny Parra's demo. They guy can't get himself into the LTZ trim or what? Maybe BR.net could take up a collection for the struggling lefty?
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If you only need 1 run to win and have a very good chance at a successful sacrifice, they are a viable option. If it's the 6th inning and defense if playing for the bunt, it's painfully bad.
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If trick plays worked well, they wouldn't be called trick plays.
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Seriously, you are looking at the probability of your catcher getting hurt realistically in between 1 and 3 innings. So you tell me, what are the odds of a catcher getting hurt in 1.5 innings..... 1/6th of a game? If we just throw something out there and say there's a 50% chance every month that a catcher get's hurt bad enough to have to come out of a game, we can come up with a ballpark figure for 1.5 innings: 1 month = ~ 25 games = 225 innings ---> odds of getting hurt = 50% x 1.5 innings / 225 innings = .3% There is probably better than a 99.7% chance that the Brewers would not have needed Lucroy. Macha HAS to know it's silly to worry about something like that but probably 28-29 managers do the same thing. They are more concerned about shielding themselves from the faintest of possiblity of a talking head ripping him a new one on Sports Center. Winning the game is of secondary importance.
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And Macha saves the Kottaras from getting injuried. WOW that was close!!!!!!
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I don't care if Wolf has lucked himself to a couple of hits this year. Saving your backup catcher in extra innigns is just asinine. But all managers do it because they are all ignorant sheep.
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Wow, am I the only one watching this anymore? Go Brewers?
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Down 4-0, the Brewers have about a 15% chance of winning, when you don't consider the huge advantage the Astros have in starting pitching. It also doesn't consider the huge offensive advantage the Brewers have but this one is looking bad.
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I expect them to play about .500 baseball the rest of the way. It would be nice if they could rattle off a bunch of wins and get back to .500 in a month but that is some very wishful thinking. A guy can hope though.
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OPS is a very flawed stat and one that I don't really use at all anymore. Yes, it's tons better than BA/HR/RBI but there are many superior alternatives. A nice, simple way to estimate offensive production is to find the run value of each batting event (positive for walks and hits and negative for outs) for a given year and sum the results for each player. It's called "Linear Weights". You end up with a context neutral, "runs produced" stat. You can either divide that by outs or PAs to turn it into a rate stat. Here's a linear Weights Primer: http://www.tangotiger.net...php?title=Linear_Weights
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"No matter how pitching is evaluated and what rates are factored into a metric you're still going to end up having to explain my least favorite concept in modern sabermetrics, luck." When sabermetric talks about luck, they are referring to statistical uncertainty. Statistical uncertainty is not a "concept of modern sabermetrics". It is an indisputable fact of probability statistics. Everything we observe in baseball is the sum of the signal (true talent) and noise (luck). Anyone who claims the signal or noise in any situation is 0% or 100% is probably wrong. If I flip a coin 10 times and get 10 heads, you can tell me I made my own luck in doing so but it's just another sports cliche, IMO. Some portion of the outcome is dependant on skill and some on luck. Anyone who watches baseball has to realize luck is a HUGE factor.
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Eveland is not a good starting pitcher. That's why the Blue Jays got rid of him. He had one average season and it probably took a little luck to do even that. Two good starts means nothing compared to that.
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Well, that was easy!
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Was Hart really positioned for no doubles? That run meant nothing.
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Too Early to Be Demoralized?
rluzinski replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I hope that's just your emotions talking. If the Brewers win the series, it's not going to be some epic upset. Baseball just doesn't work that way. Vegas gives the the Brewers a 40% shot at winning tonight and with Gallardo going tomorrow, that might even be slight favorites. But if you think Vegas is just wrong, there's money to be made! -
There's no reason Cappy has to be put right into the starting rotation if called up. I'd certainly be fine with him in the long relief role. And it's not laughable at all that Cappy has an out clause. Smart move on his part. It's not hard to envision another team wanting him at least in their bullpen.
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My vote is to play the matchups as well. If the Brewers are up by 1 in the 8th and the 3,4,5 hitters are up, go with whomever you think is the best available reliever. That should be common sense.
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they might be unlucky to currently have the worst statistical numbers compared to some of the other bottom feeders, but it's not like they're 1-2 funny hops away from being good, or even average. Of course not. They've been terrible. But it's important to realize that these guys aren't all rookies. To weight this season's stats 100% and all previous stats 0% isn't logical.
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8 more and it will be like it never happened! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
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Too Early to Be Demoralized?
rluzinski replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Fans have the luxury of only caring about what has already happened. The powers that be have to estimate who are the best players available at any given moment throughout the entire season. Sometimes the results perfectly reflect that, sometimes they sort of do and sometimes they don't at all. I understand that. I put great value in the predictive stats. I honestly do. I'm simply implicating that at some point whether it's talent or luck, you have to look at a 15-24 record and say "crap's not going right"The results have been terrible and I don't think anyone would disagree. But raw performance and the result of that performance doesn't correlate 1:1 in baseball. It's nondeterministic. A line drive can end in an out and a half swing blooper can win the game. I think it makes some baseball fans uncomfortable to accept that a huge part of baseball is just dumb luck but there's no way around that fact. I don't think we really disagree about anything though. -
Take the highest and lowest stats for any metric in the league and luck is probably playing a factor. That's not an excuse, it's stats 101. I wish more baseball fans appreciated this.
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I would LOVE to bet against the team finishing anywhere near as bad as 30 games under. In terms of overall talent, this team looks pretty similar to the one that was projected to be about a .500 team. With the bullpen stinking and Davis's poor start and health issues, we'll probably have to expect them to play a little below that going forward. Pegging them as maybe a true .475 WP team, that gives them about 58 more wins and 73 total wins. 14 games under? 16? Do Casinos offer such a bet?
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What would be Brewer's record be if Hoffman had performed even reasonably well?
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Just because people thought that the starting rotation imrpoved doesn't mean they thought it would translate into more wins than last year. What Looper's record was in 2009 is pretty much irrelevant when talking about upgrading talent. And whenever teams start to struggle, managers get criticised for not teaching fundamentals. The reality is that fans just largely ignore the inevitable gaffs when their team is winning. We just need specific things to complain about when our team is stinking it up and fundamentals is low hanging fruit.