fleehaw

Probably one of the main reasons people are willing to deal Hart is that he is arguably the easiest to replace on the club. You'll have a much easier time finding a corner OF that puts up Hart-type numbers, than a SS that puts up Hardy-type numbers, or a 1B that puts up Fielder-type numbers.

I like the idea of adding Johnson. Another plus is that he is only 6 wins from 300, which would be good for ticket sales. And while I wouldn't count on Jeffress in '10, I would count on Fielder getting traded next offseason for something good, like pitching.

I've heard second hand that sports radio in the cities has mentioned Hardy's name as a potential target this offseason. I'm not for trading Hardy this offseason, but if the package was right... The Twins match up well with the Brewers, IMO. The centerpiece I would want in a Hardy deal is Denard Span. He can leadoff and play CF, plus he bats lefty. This would allow the Brewers to decline Cameron's option and use that money elsewhere (to CC perhaps). The Twins do have an excess OFs and rumors have indicated that they're looking to deal one of them. Out of all of them, Span is the one that fits the Brewers the best. IMO, Hardy>Span, meaning something else should be coming the Brewers way. The Twins also have excess pitching, and a back end of the rotation SP like Blackburn might be availble. I've heard that Liriano, Baker, and Slowey are off-limits, and Perkins is a local guy, hence Blackburn being the choice here. Blackburn & Span is worth more than Hardy, so most likely, a good prospect (Braddock, Periard, etc.) would be added to even it out. Not saying this would happen. This is just speculation on my part after I heard that Hardy is being discussed in the cities. Other Twins players that may be of interest and a feasible target in a trade, Brendan Harris (possible stopgap for Escobar) & Brian Buschler (could be a very nice platoon-mate for Hall). Lastly, if it was Hardy straight up for a SP, then the Twins also have some nice options, Baker etc. Anyways, the Twins look like they could be a good trade partner as they have some pieces that would seem to fit Brewer needs.

I think it would depend on the Phillies offseason, namely resigning Burrell or not. They look to have a need for a catcher, or at least a some quality depth at catcher. Perhaps a deal for Salome/Lucroy would be sufficient. Dobbs would be an interesting option.

That was exactly the point and the reason why I included Hall's OPS vs. LHP. A Blalock/Hall platoon would most likely be a very good one. I hadn't heard that he's not much of a 3B anymore due to injuries, etc. If that is the case, then it's probably not worth it. IIRC, Tracy isn't much of a 3B either. Is this true? If he can be at least average at 3B defensively, then I'd be all for him as well if the price was right.

His name has been mentioned a few times in lineup ideas/trade proposals for 2009. IMO, he's probably the guy to go for if you're the Brewers. If the Rangers pick up his option, he's a FA after '09. That would give Gamel, Escobar, & Green among others another year of development in the minors making it easier to project how they fit in with the major league team. Not to mention the Brewers would have the option of offering him arbitration and picking up extra picks in next year's draft as well. It appears he has lost his 3B job with the Rangers, although he has been playing 1B and DH. I would think he'd be available at a decent price. Blalock's OPS vs. RHP & Hall's OPS vs. LHP '08 0.819 (56 games) 0.893 '07 0.932 (55 games) 0.794 '06 0.776 (143 games) 1.072 '05 0.818 (150 games) 0.967 Offensively & defensively it should be a fantastic 3B platoon. Not to mention adding Blalock and batting him 6th behind Hardy vs. RHP would help to balance the lineup more. Worst case scenario is the Rangers see him as a type A FA after the '09 season. This would mean the Brewers offer would have to top the value of 2 picks early in the next draft. He does have some injury concern, but that could also lower his price a bit. I could understand if the Rangers had some interest in Brad Nelson as he appears to be major league ready and could play 1B or DH. I'd imagine it would take 2-3 prospects outside of the Brewers top 11 in the power 50. Something like a Nelson, a SP prospect like Braddock, Periard, or Anundsen, and a maybe bullpen arm like a Pena or a Dillard of a OF prospect like Gindl. Is this fair value? What do you think the Rangers would demand in return for Blalock? Is he worth it for what he could be to the Brewers?

I guess it depends on who the 'high prospect' is to wage whether it's good value or not. However, Wood is one of the guys who might actually be worse than Hall playing every day at 3B. But, he is 6 years younger than Hall and is making league minimum. His star has faded quite a bit, but he could definitely improve. However, IMO, I don't think the Angels would have much interest in Hall since they have Figgins, Aybar, Kendrick, & Izturis. I would also question the Brewers' interest in Mathis as the catching corp was pretty solid this year and there seems to be a plethora of catchers in the minors, but crazier things have happened. To clarify, I would think that there are positions of need on the Brewers, and catcher isn't at the top of the list. If anything, Fielder plus a little something for one of Santana/Saunders/Weaver plus Willits might be amenable to both teams, but who knows.

Let's go with that figure as it seems in the right ballpark. It breaks down to $12.5M per year. Hardy has 2 more years of arby which I'd guess he get around $7M in '09 and $9M in '10. That's $16M and along with the $100M from above is $116M over 10 years or $11.6M per year. The Brewers could very easily offer Hardy something along the lines of 5yrs/$50M. That's got to be in the ballpark for him and given the fact he'll only be 31 when that contract is up, he'd still be looking at another big deal. I have never spoken to Hardy, nor do I know his intentions, but the security of getting set up for life NOW plus having the strong possibility of having another big payday in around 5 years should be somewhat appealing. Hardy has had injuries (I'm not calling him injury prone), so cashing in now might be worth it to him instead of risking his future on his performance and health in the next 2 years. So, his departure is not a foregone conclusion. Let's say he does sign a long term deal. He would man SS until such a time as Escobar is seen as ready (which is not now). This is likely not until 2010 at the earliest. At that point, you discuss with Hardy the idea of him moving to 3B. If he agrees, you have stellar defense on the left side and what should be above-average offense at both positions for a competitive price. If he disagrees, then you explore options of trading one of Hardy or Escobar (very likely Hardy). Hardy would be under control for 3 or 4 years at a legitimate price for his talents. Thus, his value would still be very high (if he continues doing what he's doing). If he doesn't want a long term deal, you stand pat until Escobar proves he's ready to take over. Most likely, you'd trade Hardy after the '09 season. The return would most likely be lower than this offseason, but the product on the field is unlikely to suffer due to his premature departure. I would love an IF of Hardy, Escobar, Weeks, & Gamel in 2010. The defense should be worlds above what it is currently. And after 2009, Fielder should command a very nice package in return. If I were to trade any position player (worth anything) this offseason, it'd be Hart as he's realistically the easiest to replace. Hart for DeJesus is very appealing to me. But I digress...

He may be their only example, but as long as Jenks is closing for the White Sox, they're probably on that list with the Brewers.

I agree with you. And I'll add one more to your list of 1 year deals, Randy Johnson. He's more of a 5th starter due to endurance these days, but he put up very nice numbers last season (below average 1st half, very good 2nd half) and it's quite possible that Arizona doesn't resign him . If Penney is relatively healthy, he'd be my 1st choice (since I think Sheets will sign a multiyear deal somewhere), but Johnson would be an alright fall back. Him grabbing his 300th win in Milwaukee wouldn't be bad either. I also think a solid stop-gap SP is the way to go in '09 (not to mention a stop-gap 3B). It's a good bet that one of Fielder, Hardy, Weeks, or Hart is dealt after the '09 season. A young SP is a likely target. And with Escobar & Gamel having a full year at AAA, they could very well be ready to step in if a deal does go down not to mention another year under the belt of Jeffress, Cain, Salome, & Gilespie. I think you'll get a much better picture of where these prospects fit in the Brewers' plans after next season. P.S. Penney and Johnson will not require draft pick compensation to sign. Another bonus. Technically Sheets wouldn't either, but you could argue he'd cost you at least a sandwich pick by resigning him.

And signed for 3 more years at a very team-friendly rate.

No. The Brewers have left the receiving quantity for quality trades behind them. Case in point, the Sabathia deal.

Dunn is a hack is LF, so I'd imagine RF is probably not an option. Who is going to platoon with Branyan for when (not if) he gets hurt? If you're hellbent on acquiring Dunn, perhaps place him at 1B and look for an OF option. However, he is rumored to want a deal in excess of $100M. Put me down as a no thank you.

Mora will be 37 next season and Sherrill and Roberts will be 31. Roberts would be a very nice addition, but 1 year of Roberts does not equal 3 of Fielder. Mora had a fine season in 2008, posted a 798 OPS with good defense. At his age and his contract status, he's nothing more than a stop gap. Sherrill is an average reliever. He had one good month, two average months, and six bad months in 2008. While not the best stat, his ERA vs. righties was 4.89, not terrible, but not great and could be an indication of a growing ineffectiveness versus righties. He had decent success as a closer, so he's going to make more than he's worth in arbitration. I'd take Riske, Torres, and Villanueva over him. I guess I just question why you'd trade the cornerstone of a franchise for a past-his-prime stop gap 3B, an average reliever who is probably about to become overpaid, and 1 year of a top leadoff man. It just doesn't make sense to me. If I were to deal a guy like Fielder, I'd be looking for young, inexpensive major league talent that would be part of the long term picture.

3 guaranteed years of Fielder for 1 guaranteed year of Roberts, a declining, over-the-hill mediocre 3B in Mora, and an average relief pitcher. I realize this is just speculation, but this proposal seems almost laughable.

Escobar and Gamel will be in AAA. If Hardy signs a long term deal and agrees to move to 3B, Gamel is shifted to 1B. If he doesn't, he'll try to stick at 3B While resigning CC would be exciting, I just don't think it'll be done, and that might be a blessing in disguise. Sign Hardy ~4yrs/$34M, perhaps with a team option. This would be if he's also agreeable to move to 3B after 2009. Sign Bush ~3yrs/$21M, perhaps with a team option. Buys out a year of FA and would seem to be good value for the Brewers. Trade Brad Nelson and Tim Dillard to the Rangers for Hank Blalock. I'm just throwing Nelson & Dillard out there. Value-wise, I think they'd get it done. Not really sure who the Rangers would be interested in. 3-team deal: Brewers get Kelly Johnson & David Dejesus, Braves get: Weeks & Hart, Royals get: Francoeur. IMO, Hart>DeJesus/Francouer & Weeks Sign either Penney or Randy Johnson to a 1 year deal (if they're healthy). They'd provide SP depth while shifting McClung to the pen (even though he seems to be a better option than Suppan in the rotation). DeJesus, Johnson, Braun, Fielder, Hardy, Blalock/Hall, Cameron, Kendall Bench: Hall, Counsell, Kapler, Rivera, & 5th OF. Rotation: Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, Johnson/Penney Bullpen: McClung, Stetter, Shouse, Coffey, Riske, Villanueva, & Torres After 2009 shop Fielder for best package available. If Hardy doesn't sign, shop him as well. It's not as exciting as many proposals, but it would improve the offense and the defense by quite a bit. The rotation should be solid, yet unspectacular. If Penney is healthy, the rotation would be on par with what the Brewers had coming into this season. Johnson would be a great 5th SP if he was the option. IIRC, neither Johnson or Penney would cost the Brewers draft picks. Jeffress could get a call up if deserved and needed. Again, it's not all that flashy, but I think it sets up the future very well while maintaining a very competitive team.

Willis intrigues me. After acquiring Mota last offseason, I heard that the coaches/front office spotted a problem with his mechanics as opposed to earlier in his career which is why he had poor results. They tweaked it in the preseason and Mota pitched well above expectations IMO. Perhaps Willis would provide another example of this. He's younger so it's possible he could rebound unlike Suppan who appears to be winding down. I'd trade Willis for Suppan and considering the park Detroit plays in, they might go for it also.

Suppan and a lower level OF prospect to the Yankees for Johnny Damon. Unlike Pierre, Damon is only overpaid for one more year instead of 3, plus he can actually take a walk. It may interest both teams, or it may not, but I like it much better than the Pierre idea.

If I were Dayton Moore, those are exactly the names I'd throw out there when approached by Melvin about DeJesus. I'm not saying Melvin would be amenable to such a deal, but a package of marginal talent isn't going to get it done either. DeJesus is signed to a team-friendly deal with 2yrs + a $6M team option remaining.

I would love to add DeJesus as well, but if you're the Royals, wouldn't you start by asking for one of the following: Hardy, Hart, Gamel, or Escobar? I don't know if I'd part with any of those guys for him. Damon offers much of what DeJesus offers. Yes, he's overpaid, but if you were to dump Suppan in the deal, the Brewers would end up saving $12M. One year of Damon & Cameron would allow Cain, Gilespie, and possibly Brantley another year to be evaluated in the minors to get a better idea of where they'd fit with the major league club. I believe Damon is an average/below average OF defensively which is why I suggested him in LF, with Braun moving to RF, and picking up Cameron's option in CF. LF is where defensive hacks go to pasture, so I'd think Damon would be just fine out there. I agree that Damon's numbers wouldn't compare as favorably to LFs as CFs. I've seen this argument come up a number of times (Crawford, IIRC) and while I understand the argument, I don't necessarily agree. If you have a power hitting CF and OBP-driven corner OF, is that really different for the team from the reverse. An OF of Braun, Cameron, and Damon would provide 2 power-hitting OF, and 1 OBP-driven OF. This team needs guys at the top of the lineup to get on base and have better plate discipline. Lastly, I'd only be in favor of nabbing Damon if the 2nd part of the orignal post comes to fruition. Hart and a lower level SP prospect (basically anyone but Jeffress) to the Royals for Greinke. 2 guaranteed years of Greinke for 3 of Hart. While the Royals may not go for this, it's based on the rumor that they are/were interested in Francoeur and thinking of moving Soria to their rotation. A rotation of Gallardo, Greinke, Parra, Bush, & McClung is pretty decent IMO and not very expensive.

I'm a big David DeJesus fan, but I think what he'll cost to acquire might not be worth it. Well, what about Johnny Damon? With the Yankees OF pantry full (Nady, Matsui, Cabrera, Abreu (if resigned), Damon could be available. He's signed for $13M/yr thru the '09 season. He had a very nice year this year to rebound from a subpar 2007. He's LH, hits lefties about the same as righties, carries a good OBP, and can steal a base to boot making him an ideal lead off man. He does have a limited no trade clause which allowed him to choose 12 teams that he could not be traded to unless he agreed beforehand in writing. I don't know if Milwaukee was one of the 12. Another reason for bringing him up is that the Yankees could use some SP depending on the decisions they make on Mussina and Petitte. They could be interested in a Suppan for Damon swap. Throw in a nice, young OF prospect like Gindl and perhaps they'd pick up all of Suppan's salary. This acquisition would also allow the Brewers to shop Hart. The Royals have been rumored to be interested in Francoeur, and IMO, Hart is better than Francoeur. Considering the Royals are also thinking of moving Soria to the rotation, a Hart and lower level SP prospect (like a Braddock or Periard) for Greinke might be amenable to both sides. Damon could play LF, Cameron in CF, and Braun moves to RF. Add in acquiring Blalock from Texas and besides addressing the bullpen, I think the team would be improved (pre-CC).

I just can't fathom a lot of changes to a team that made the postseason and had the best record for about a 3-4 month stretch of the season. There are definitely places to tweak, though. Some of these ideas are my own and others are similar or copied from other people. Trade for Blalock. Considering Texas may non-tender him, for 1 year of Blalock, I think Nelson and a guy like Dillard might get it done. Am I way off on this one? Gives Gamel a full year at AAA to hone his hot corner skills. 3-way deal with the Braves & Royals. Braves get Hart and Pena. Royals get Francouer. Brewers get DeJesus and Mike Gonzalez. There might be a prospect here or there that would need to be included, but that's the meat of it. Resign Sheets. It probably isn't the most popular choice, but he'll command far less than Sabathia. He cost himself a good deal of money this season. Perhaps a 3yr/$48 with a vesting 4th year. While the Brewers could make due without him, their rotation would take a noticeable step back. This is the rotation they were supposed to have this year that most people seemed excited about. DeJesus-LF Weeks-2B Braun-RF Fielder-1B Hardy-SS Blalock/Hall-3B Cameron-CF Kendall-C Bench- Rivera, Kapler, Counsell, a LH OF (Gwynn?) Rotation- Sheets, Yo, Parra, Bush, Suppan (although I'd like to see McClung beat him out) Bullpen- McClung, Stetter, Riske, Coffey, Villanueva, Gonzalez, & Torres I like the idea of having the manager have a LH & RH closer option to pitch the 8th & 9th innings depending on the matchup. At any rate, it should be an interesting offseason.

I'd rather have 3 years of Fielder and 6 years of Escobar than Halladay. The Brewers are a small market team and it's generally unwise for small market teams to move their cheap, young talent for expensive vets (albeit very good ones) on the wrong side of 30. It does make complete sense for the Brewers to shop some of their players entering arbitration (Fielder, Hart, Hardy, etc.). You trade players you have replacements for (like Hardy after '09) for cheap, major league ready/near ready talent. This is one model of how small market teams can be successful year in, year out.

#1- if you throw in 3B Blake DeWitt from the Dodgers, it makes the proposal quite interesting. #2- even though I love Corey Hart, I've had quite a man-crush on David DeJesus. If you could someway sweeten the deal while still making it worthwhile to the Brewers and nab Kelly Johnson and/or perhaps Mike Gonzalez from the Braves, you really have something IMO. Johnson and DeJesus are both lefties that hit lefties pretty well, play good defense, and know how to take a walk. I think these are exactly the type of hitters that should be targeted. That being said, I can't imagine that they would come cheap. #3- not a terrible idea, but not a great one either. #4- not a fan of this one. Hasn't Woods' star fallen the last couple of seasons? He seems like the same hitter as many Brewers already, power and no plate discipline.

I've been wondering if the Brewers paid Hardy long term like a SS, if he'd be willing to move to 3B. From Hardy's stance, he has to feel like he compares favorably to probably the 2 best SS in the NL, Rollins and Reyes. Reyes signed a 4yr/$25.23M with him making $4M, 5.75M, and $9M thru arbitration with a team option at $11M Rollins signed a 5yr/$40M after his 1st year of arby with salaries of $4M, $7M, 7.5M, 7.5M with a team option at $8.5M with a $2M buyout. Hardy is making $2.65M this year in his first of arby. Would a 4yr/$32M with a team option at around $10M be enough for Hardy? And would it be a good deal for the Brewers? I would think that Hardy would sign that deal since it puts him squarely in the Rollins/Reyes category. It makes sense for the Brewers if he agrees to switch positions when/if Escobar is ready. If Hardy does not want to switch positions, a 3yr deal that buys out a year of his FA would also make a lot of sense. It locks in his value for an additional year for a team willing to trade for him (if Escobar is ready of course).