fleehaw

I figured I'd just resurrect this thread than starting a new one. I look at the Rays and see a good trading partner with the Brewers. If not Fielder, what about Hart? I'd imagine Hart would interest the Rays and fill either the RF or DH spot. Part of their interest would probably depend on whether they resign Badelli. The guy I'm liking more and more I think about it is Willie Aybar. Looking at his fielding % and range factor, he was better defensively than Hall last season. However, it was only 41 games at 3B. I don't know if his range or OOZ were better than Halls. Secondly, Aybar is relatively blocked by Iwamura & Longoria. He could very well be in their DH plans or they could decide to make Iwamura available to cut costs and move him to 2B. That also speaks to Aybar's flexibility. If Gamel sticks at 3B, in '10, Aybar could replace Weeks at 2B if it would improve the team. Back to Hart. Would Hart and a decent prospect (outside P50 top 10) be enough for Jackson & Aybar? There seems to be quite a few options available to replace Hart in the OF. A Swisher for Hall trade perhaps, or Giles. Bottom line is you'd improve you defense and offense at 3B and get a guy with good upside into the rotation.

IMO, that offer is too low. I think 4.5-5M is about right for '09 with any sort of success meaning conservatively 6-7M in '10. So, he'd give up a year of FA for about 4M? Taking into account contracts like Suppans and Silvas, I'd think 3yrs/$20M, perhaps with an option year at around 8M is probably more on target. Is he worth it?

Trade Bill Hall to the White Sox for Nick Swisher Trade Fielder to the Rays for Niemann, Aybar, and Perez Trade Cameron, Suppan, and a decent prospect or two(outside of top 10) to the Yankees for Cabrera & Kennedy Sign Fuentes 4yrs/$45M (with so much $$$ coming off the books, make it frontloaded, 15M, 12M, 10M, 8M). S-Perez-CF R-Weeks-2B R-Braun-LF S-Swisher-1B R-Hardy-SS R-Hart-RF S-Aybar-3B R-Kendall-C Bench: Cabrera, Nelson, Rivera, Heether, & veteran RH hitter Rotation: Gallardo, Parra, Bush, McClung, Niemann/Kennedy Odd man out goes to AAA for depth Pen: DeFelice, Stetter, Coffey, Riske, Villanueva, Torres, & Fuentes I love the idea of having a righty and lefty that can close. You could choose whichever one based on the matchups in the 8th and 9th inning. Rotation would be solid, but probably unspectacular unless people step up. The lineup would be nicely balanced with the addition of 3 switch-hitters and could argubly be on par with the '08 offense. The defense should be improved. From Cameron to Perez is a slight downgrade, Hall to Aybar is probably a push (I'm not sure), and Fielder to Swisher would be an improvement. Lastly, this would drop the payroll to about $65-$70M while leaving the minor leagues unraided.

5yrs/$60M is $12M a year, not $15M. Fielder could easily pull down $30M total for his 3 arbitration years. That leaves 2 FA years at $15M a piece. IMO, that offer was right on the money.

I wonder if Wang is as 'available' as Hughes is. He was disappointed the Yankees didn't want to sign him to a multiyear deal. If the Yankees decide to make a couple big splashes in the FA market, Wang, Hughes, or Kennedy could be traded. Wang and Cabrera for Cameron and a SP prospect not named Jeffress. Doubtful.

Wow! Boras gave his okay for the deal, but Fielder wanted more. Given Boras' reputation, that certainly paints Fielder in a negative light. It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall when his name comes up in conversations this offseason.

I don't necessarily disagree with you; I was just throwing something alternative out there. Endaround, I would like to hear what you think is a good return on Fielder with a specific proposal or two. I usually agree with your posts or at least understand where you're coming from, so I'm interested to hear your thoughts. It seems that people are in agreement, that if Hardy or Fielder is traded, it should be for a young, top of the rotation starter. Who is this mythical player? Proposals have been made for a good, young pitcher and the response often is, 'No way he's traded.' or 'You don't trade good, young starting pitching.' I realize how unlikely all of the prosposals are. It would probably make for an entertaining read for Melvin. I guess I'm just looking for fair value in any proposal. Most likely guys like Cain or Kazmir won't get traded, but I certainly feel like they'd be fair value in a potential Fielder deal.

Just for fun. If Chicago is really trying to dump Vazquez. What about Fielder & Suppan for Buerhle, Vazquez, and Swisher (assuming the Sox can dump one of Konerko/Thome)? It leaves a gaping hole in Chicago's rotation, but gives them plenty of $$$ to play with. Using the assumption that Suppan=Vazquez, I've read much worse suggestions for Fielder than Buerhle & Swisher. Buerhle will turn 30 right before opening day next year and if he's traded I believe an option kicks in for '12 @ $15M. Basically a 4yr/$60M deal. Swisher has a Bill Hall-type contract and Vazquez is signed thru '10 @ approx. $12M/year. A Buerhle, Gallardo, Parra, Vazquez, and Bush rotation would be solid, but the offense would take a hit going from Fielder to Swisher. The Brewers would get older in the deal, but they aren't giving anything from the farm. It's unlikely, but the next 4 months have to be filled with something. Speculation and conjecture will work...for now.

How about Suppan and a decent prospect or two? The Brewers would save a couple million in the deal. Yeah, I know, very doubtful, but if they want him gone so bad...

Two guys who at the very least could provide some AAA SP depth are Kevin Correia and Brad Hennessey. Both were designated (I think, or at least optioned) by the Giants last year. I'm not sure of their contract status. I'd imagine their asking price wouldn't be substantial.

I would have said the Royals could have been a dark horse prior to the acquiring Jacobs. I guess you could say any team is a dark horse when it's unlikely that Fielder is going anywhere, but crazier things have happened. Red Sox- They have the pieces to make an interesting offer, but I think they sit this one out. Yankees- I don't think they match up well. It'd take more than Hughes and they don't have much else that's interesting to me. Blue Jays- Would have been a real possibility prior to McGowan & Marcum going down for the year. Rays- The Brewers and Rays would match up well for a possible Fielder deal. The Rays have pitching to spare and Aybar interests me quite a bit. White Sox- If they can move Konerko, they may have some interest. Not sure what they'd need to give up. Angels- If they lose out on Tex, they may be willing to overpay for Fielder. They have quite a few interesting young bats and arms. Nats- I don't think they'd give up the pieces that would make it worthwhile. Giants- They have the pitching if they want to make a deal. Dodgers- They seem to like their 'names' and their vets. I have a hard time seeing them giving up either Kershaw or Billingsley, but if they were to sign Sabathia, perhaps they'd prefer Fielder over Loney. Who knows. They definitely have the right pieces if they want to make a deal. I'd say the teams that look the most attractive for a possible Fielder deal are the Angels & the Rays.

Was this supposed to be in blue? If not, would you please enlighten us as to who these 'scrubs' are?

I'm assuming that in acquiring Ellsbury, you'd be declining Cameron's option. Cameron wasn't a problem in '08. By trading Fielder, you would now have holes at 1b & 3b that need to be filled instead of just 3B. It may be of interest to both clubs if Lowell and Suppan were added to the deal. Salaries are essentially a wash with the Brewers coming out about a million ahead. Suppan could be their #5 starter taking over Wakefield's spot. Lowell, even at his age, would be an improvement at 3B, if his defense hasn't slipped much. He posted an 800 OPS in roughly 2/3 of an injury-filled year in '08, career OPS is about 810. He has a limited no-trade clause. Then, you'd just need to find a decent 1B.

Since the Brewers could only cut his salary by 20% if they offered him arbitration, the question should be, is Gagne worth a one-year $8M deal? I'd say it's unlikely that he sniffs anything close to that in FA, meaning it'd be silly for him not to accept arbitration. I would pass.

Trade Fielder, Salome, & the Hurricane to the Rays for Kazmir & Aybar. Value-wise this looks to be about even. The Brewers get their top of the rotation SP and an answer at 3B while the Rays get the big bat to stick at DH, plus a top prospect that may be able to catch. An order with a 2-5 of Upton, Fielder, Longoria, & Pena is pretty sick and balanced. Trade a SP prospect (except Jeffress), Pena, Suppan, & cover $4M per year for Suppan to the Nats for Nick Johnson. Johnson fills the void left by Fielder and if he's healthy, an 850 OPS is realistic. The problem is he's oft-injured. The Brewers would have some unproven depth in Nelson, Rivera, & Gamel. Johnson is signed thru '09. It's unlikely, but it's possible that the Nats would take Suppan especially if they're getting a couple of good arms with him. Suppan at 2yrs/$19M isn't too bad. Put him in a pitcher's park like Washington, and you could probably flip him at the deadline in '10. Obtain either Kevin Correia or Brad Hennessey from the Giants to provide AAA SP depth. Both were designated for assignment this season, so I'm not sure if they're FA or not. It not, their price can't be much. Lineup Weeks Hardy Braun Johnson Hart Aybar Cameron Kendall Bench: Hall, Counsell, Rivera, Kapler, and Nelson Rotation: Kazmir, Gallardo, Parra, Bush, & McClung Pen: DeFelice, Stetter, Shouse, Coffey, Riske, Villanueva, & Torres Gamel & Escobar in AAA, preferably for the entire year. Gamel starts to learn 1B. A quick calculation has the payroll at around $85M (with the $4M to the Nats). I'd argue that it's a better team than in '08 and it's built for the long haul. Value-wise, the trades look okay, however unlikely they might be.

I hope you're right.

So, the consensus is that Kazmir is worth more than 3 years of Fielder? Anyone have some information on Aybar? How his defense is and what kind of ceiling does he have?

I haven't seen Kazmir's name come up much in possible trade targets. He signed a very reasonable 3 yr contract this year with an option for 2012. If I had first choice of pitchers from the Rays, it'd be Price and Shields, but I would have to imagine it would take Fielder plus a top prospect just for the Rays to listen to offers for them. For some reason, I feel like Kazmir would be more attainable given his salary (roughly $10M/yr thru 2012) and a replacement ready to go (Price). I've heard they might rather deal Jackson, but to get someone of Fielder's status, I'd say it would have to be one of Kazmir, Price, Shields, and perhaps, Garza. I don't know what offensive prospects the Rays have besides Brignac. They have a load of pitching talent, so trading from a strength isn't a bad thing. I'd imagine they could have some interest of Fielder. Is 3 guaranteed years of Fielder worth Kazmir or vice versa? Also, could Aybar be the solution for the Brewers at 3B? He's looked decent in the little that I've seen him. IIRC, he had a few problems and is finally getting a chance. What kind of ceiling does Aybar have and how is he defensively at 3B? Would a Kazmir and Aybar for Fielder and either 1 prospect outside of Gamel, Escobar, or Jeffress, or 2 lesser prospects in the 12-30 range be worthwhile? It would leave a hole at 1B. As others has posted, Nick Johnson might be a nice addition if the price is right and he's healthy. Thoughts?

If you're intent on acquiring Blalock, then I wouldn't include Hall in the deal. Blalock isn't very good versus lefty whereas Hall is very good. They'd make one heck of a platoon. Given AT's statement, then not including Hall might net the Brewers a better deal.

The Fish are rumored to want an upgrade to Jacobs at 1B. I believe MLBTR mentioned that he, Gregg, and Olsen could be shopped this offseason. Fielder would make a lot of sense for them (if their willing to take on payroll). Not saying it's going to happen or that I want it to happen, but a Fielder for Nolasco & Jacobs might not be such a bad thing if the Brewers brought on a lefty-killing 1B to platoon with Jacobs. I guess I don't know how good of a defensive 1B Jacobs is, and that would be a factor. FWIW, some inexpensive RH 1B platoon options, Tony Clark and Richie Sexson.

You are absolutely right. I guess I should have clarified more. I wasn't comparing Cameron to DeJesus. I was just saying that DeJesus brings many of the things the Brewers are supposedly looking for to the table (lefty, hits for avg., walks a decent rate, doesn't K that much, etc), not just being a bargain monetarily speaking.

I wouldn't say that's the only reason. He's a top-of-the-lineup left-handed bat (that hits lefties well), will take a walk, and doesn't strike out all that much. He's exactly the type of hitter the Brewers are supposedly looking for and probably one of the reasons he's the topic of discussion as much as he is. Also, it's conceivable that his stats would greatly improve when he's batting in front of Braun & Fielder as opposed to Guillen, Butler, Gordon, etc. The acquisition of DeJesus would alter the makeup of the lineup, that is adding a higher avg, higher OBP, lower K guy. DeJesus does have his warts. He seems to be injury prone. Not the huge, season-ending injuries, but the nagging, one or two times a year on the DL injuries. I think he's averaged about 120-130 games a year for the past few. He would be a downgrade to Cameron defensively in CF, but he'd probably be a lateral move defensively in RF if he replaced Hart.

The idea for this is to pick up Cameron's option for '09. Your OF would consist of Braun, Cameron, and DeJesus. DeJesus is signed for 3 more years (actually 2 yrs with a reasonable option). At this time, I'd say it's a very real possibility that Cameron will be offered arbitration after '09. Also, Cain & Gilespie would have another year in the minors under their belt which would give a better indication on where they'll be in '10.

AT, what would you think of a DeJesus for Hart deal? Both are under team control for 3 more years with DeJesus locked at a better rate while Hart is arguably a better player. I assume that DeJesus can play defense in RF as well as Hart, Cameron in CF, and Braun in LF. Solves the 'problem' of a leadoff guy and adding more lefties to the lineup. It also adds flexibility. I'd imagine that DeJesus is superior to Hart in CF. If you let Cameron walk after '09 (he might be worth offering arbitration to), you'll have the option of filling either RF or CF along with having possibilities in the minors (Cain & Gilespie) as opposed to be looking for just a CF.

Not to nitpick, but I can say with almost certainty that the Brewers won't have a $111M payroll in '09. (10M/.09=111.111M) He'd most likely account for between 11-12.5% of the payroll. 9% is just a strange number to pull out of nowhere, why not just say about 10%?